{"id":191347,"date":"2019-01-04T16:07:34","date_gmt":"2019-01-04T21:07:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=191347"},"modified":"2019-01-07T08:41:30","modified_gmt":"2019-01-07T13:41:30","slug":"cuba-five-topics-that-will-make-tongues-start-wagging-in-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/society-cuba\/politics-in-cuba\/cuba-five-topics-that-will-make-tongues-start-wagging-in-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Cuba: Five topics that will make tongues start wagging in 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
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  1. Constitutional reform<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    After months of debates and controversies, 2019 should be the year in which Cuba approves its <\/span>new Constitution<\/span><\/a>. Or not.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The future Magna Carta – which does not foresee a change in the political system and follows the guidelines of the economic reforms of recent years – will be taken to a referendum on February 24, during which Cubans will decide with their vote whether to endorse or reject the text <\/span>unanimously<\/span><\/a> approved by the National Assembly on December 22, after a process of popular consultation involving almost 9 million Cubans and, for the first time, the emigre community.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In the referendum, the voters will answer a single question: “Do you ratify the new Constitution of the Republic?” If the “yes” wins, as expected, the island will have a new Law of Laws, instead of the one still in force, approved in 1976 and modified several times since then.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Its proclamation could be on April 10, following a request by the deputies and coinciding with the 150th anniversary of the approval of the first Cuban Magna Carta by the island’s independence fighters who were fighting to liberate the country from Spain.<\/span><\/p>\n

    If not ratified, however, a parenthesis of uncertainty would open, in which the next steps would not be entirely clear.<\/span><\/p>\n

    https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/cuba\/diaz-canel-proyecto-de-constitucion-reafirma-el-rumbo-socialista-de-la-revolucion\/<\/p>\n

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    1. The economy, again<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      2019 promises not to be an easy year for the hard-hit <\/span>Cuban economy<\/span><\/a>. President Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel himself has said that “the economic battle” will continue being “the fundamental task and also the most complex” and that next year will be one of “organization,” which will prioritize paying debts more than new credits.<\/span><\/p>\n

      In tune, Minister of Economy and Planning Alejandro Gil called for “enhancing efficiency and productivity,” and affirmed there is potential to grow by “adjusting available resources,” avoiding greater foreign indebtedness.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Gil predicted a growth of 1.5%, higher than the 1.2% of 2018 – according to data <\/span>from the Cuban government<\/span><\/a> -, but to achieve it he said a better investment process, greater use of productive capacities and export diversification will be necessary. Not at all easy for an economy burdened by obstacles, laxness and inefficiencies, in addition to the effects of the U.S. embargo.<\/span><\/p>\n

      It will also be necessary to see how much the private sector can take off with its <\/span>new regulations<\/span><\/a> already in force, and what it is capable of contributing to the whole of the Cuban economy, despite endemic past problems such as the non-existence of a wholesale market and the impossibility of importing on a large scale.<\/span><\/p>\n

      https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/opinion\/columnas\/contrapesos\/cuba-2019-los-retos-mas-importantes-de-la-economia-no-son-economicos\/<\/p>\n

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      1. Relations with the U.S.: standby or rollback?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Although the agreement between Cuba and MLB and the signing of the <\/span>Agricultural Act<\/span><\/a> with an amendment on the Island gave a less tense closure to 2018, the year that begins does not precisely look hopeful.<\/span><\/p>\n

        Cuba is not a priority on the agenda of the current U.S. government, but when <\/span>the issue<\/span><\/a> comes up, it is not something to get excited about. In addition to maintaining the embargo and the hostility of his speech – with its consequent response by Havana -, the measures taken by Trump in his two years in the White House have put a stop the rapprochement promoted by Obama and Castro and have been a bucket of cold water for the promoters of engagement.<\/span><\/p>\n

        But in the coming months the scenario could get worse, at least according to the predictions of some analysts considering that 2019 is a pre-election year.<\/span><\/p>\n

        In search of votes in Florida, Trump could increase restrictions on travel to Cuba by Americans, include more Cuban hotels and entities on his “<\/span>black list<\/span><\/a>,” and even, in a more somber scenario, again include Cuba on the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, close down the embassy in Havana, currently almost paralyzed by the alleged attacks against U.S. diplomats – another issue to follow – and allow the coming into force of the third title of the Helms-Burton Act, which would make it possible to sue foreign companies with properties confiscated from Americans by the Cuban government.<\/span><\/p>\n

        The effect could reach the <\/span>historic agreement<\/span><\/a> between the Cuban Baseball Federation and the MLB, an agreement that Senator Marco Rubio and other politicians opposed to the rapprochement with the island have already <\/span>threatened<\/span><\/a> to torpedo.<\/span><\/p>\n

        https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/cuba-usa\/eeuu-y-cuba-de-la-cercania-de-obama-a-la-hostilidad-de-trump\/<\/p>\n

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        1. The 5 million tourists<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Cuba was expecting them in 2018, but they did not arrive. After a first semester with a 6.5% drop, the year\u2019s forecasts were reduced by the Ministry of Tourism (MINTUR), which deployed an intense campaign to reverse the situation in the following months and, above all, to take the expected leap in 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

          Although last year\u2019s official numbers have not been announced, the tentative figure placed the visitors to Cuba in 2018 at more than 4.7 million, a new record that once again had Canada as the main issuing market and <\/span>cruises<\/span><\/a> as a buoyant modality that multiplied arrivals – mainly to the ports of Havana, Santiago and Cienfuegos – and made it possible to circumvent the Trump government’s measures against travel to Cuba.<\/span><\/p>\n

          MINTUR\u2019s plan for 2019 is ambitious: 5.1 million visitors, more than 5,000 new rooms throughout the island, more cruise trips, and the diversification of the Cuban product beyond “sun and beach,” with the promotion of nature, health and events tourism as emerging modalities, <\/span>the latter<\/span><\/a> mainly in Havana, which will celebrate the 500 years of its foundation and will host the island’s International Fair of the sector, FitCuba 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

          But these aims are not enough. The growth in statistics must be accompanied by the coherence of another important element: income. Only then can tourism boast of being the driving force needed by the Cuban economy. We will see next December.<\/span><\/p>\n

          M\u00e1s de 5 mil nuevas habitaciones para el turismo cubano en 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n