
{"id":197393,"date":"2019-04-24T17:01:15","date_gmt":"2019-04-24T21:01:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=197393"},"modified":"2019-04-24T17:26:36","modified_gmt":"2019-04-24T21:26:36","slug":"the-coral-gables-doctrine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/opinion\/columns\/from-washington\/the-coral-gables-doctrine\/","title":{"rendered":"The Coral Gables doctrine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">If you didn\u2019t know John Bolton and you heard him speak last week in Coral Gables before the Bay of Pigs veterans, you would be forgiven if you thought you were hearing a campaigning politician as opposed to the national security advisor to the President of the United States.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bolton discussed some consequential measures (some announced hours before in Washington), but he was in Miami to rally emotions. He spared no twist of rhetoric, from \u201ctroika of tyranny\u201d to \u201cthree stooges of socialism.\u201d He felt compelled to criticize President Obama 14 times by name, even though it had been 453 days since Obama had anything to do with policy toward Cuba or any other place. He implored his audience\u2019s help in rejecting socialism \u201cin this hemisphere and in this country,\u201d as if a red tide were upon us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">But Bolton was meek when it came to his most critical point: regime change in Caracas, Havana, and Managua. For all his extravagant rhetoric, he avoided any clear expression of President Trump\u2019s commitment to achieve such an end.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Instead, Bolton\u2019s Coral Gables doctrine is about economic sanctions that he hopes will work if they are draconian enough and applied long enough.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">But even among Bolton fans there is doubt, a tacit recognition that he has given President Trump a set of tactics that draw applause and a strategy that seems to be, \u201cWe\u2019ll see what happens.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"jeg_video_container jeg_video_content\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Discurso de Bolton en Miami ante la Brigada 2506\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KQz5Z-nGmA4?start=162&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Hence we see many among Venezuela\u2019s opposition, including the dislodged Supreme Court that operates outside the country, calling for military action to oust Maduro. Or Senator Rick Scott of Florida\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/taskandpurpose.com\/rick-scott-venezuela-military-intervention\" target=\"_blank\">calling for<\/a>\u00a0the White House to consider sending troops to deliver aid to Venezuela \u2013 as if the 82<sup>nd<\/sup>\u00a0Airborne were Uber Eats, and as if such an action could possibly be conflict-free.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Or Nicaraguan democrat Humberto Belli\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.larepublica.ec\/blog\/opinion\/2019\/04\/22\/tigre-papel\/\" target=\"_blank\">warning<\/a>\u00a0that President Trump risks making the United States look like a \u201cpaper tiger.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Or essayist Carlos Alberto Montaner\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.14ymedio.com\/opinion\/razones-Washington-Carlos_Alberto_Montaner-EEUU-Embargo-Cuba_0_2641535822.html\" target=\"_blank\">urging<\/a>\u00a0Washington not to \u201ctorment Cuban society with more hardships\u201d\u00a0if it is not willing to use military force (with NATO and Latin American nations readily joining U.S. troops, he dreams) by the end of next year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sadly for these men, the cavalry is not coming. The sanctions are the policy. President Trump does not like military adventures, and he recently told Congress that \u201cfoolish wars\u201d would threaten the nation\u2019s prosperity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">What Trump has done is to allow Bolton to use sanctions \u2013 those announced, and more to come, he assures us \u2013 instead of military force to bring about political change. It\u2019s fine with Trump because no American blood or treasure are at risk. Few object, at least yet, to a policy that targets civilians by harming the economies in which they live.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">The effect in Cuba will be to add to the troubles that were growing already due to Venezuela\u2019s self-inflicted economic decline. New measures to disrupt Venezuela\u2019s oil trade, and its supplies to Cuba, will worsen conditions in an economy where scheduled blackouts are already beginning.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">New Cuba travel restrictions will be issued in the coming months. Their shape and precise impact is unknown, but at the margin they will reduce the state\u2019s tourism income \u2013 and also that of families in Cuba\u2019s hotel and tourism sector, including the entrepreneurs whose lodging, transportation, restaurant, and other services benefit from U.S. customers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">New restrictions on remittances will create inconvenience but are unlikely to stop those who want to send money to relatives and friends. They may disrupt the use of money transfer services as a means to send payments to private businesses in Cuba \u2013 a use that was not contemplated when Western Union and other companies entered the business decades ago.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">The activation of Title III of the Helms-Burton law will unleash lawsuits against investors in Cuba, potentially including U.S. companies. Other sanctions will deny visas to executives and directors of companies whose investments are tied to expropriated property. Washington, in other words, will be punishing foreign companies for doing precisely what U.S. companies do all around the world.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Measures such as these are unlikely to cause current investors to leave Cuba, but they will deter some new investment and open the way for investors who have no connection to the United States and no interest in following rules that Washington establishes for the world to follow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Two things are predictable as economic conditions worsen in Cuba and Venezuela. Those governments will dig in as if their survival is at stake, because it is. And relations between the United States and its allies will worsen, because while many would like to see Maduro go, they did not sign up to Bolton\u2019s strategy of slow economic strangulation to achieve that end.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">As refugee flows worsen, diplomacy \u2013 the kind that involves both sticks and carrots \u2013 will become more urgent for Latin America and Europe. A coalition will still be in place to conduct it, but the United States may find itself alone and on the outside.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bolton will then have accomplished a 21<sup>st<\/sup>\u00a0century Bay of Pigs: a momentary play on the emotions of Cuban Americans, and a strategy where rhetoric matters most and added economic hardship is the sole measurable result.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The activation of Title III of the Helms-Burton law will unleash lawsuits against investors in Cuba, potentially including U.S. companies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3745,"featured_media":197391,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20040],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[34018,20041],"class_list":["post-197393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-washington"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Coral Gables doctrine | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/opinion\/columns\/from-washington\/the-coral-gables-doctrine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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