{"id":198381,"date":"2019-05-08T09:42:40","date_gmt":"2019-05-08T13:42:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=198381"},"modified":"2019-05-08T10:02:37","modified_gmt":"2019-05-08T14:02:37","slug":"trumps-surprises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/opinion\/columns\/from-washington\/trumps-surprises\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s surprises"},"content":{"rendered":"

The ever-surprising President Trump is at his most surprising when he casually distances himself from the government over which he presides.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2017, his Secretary of State was negotiating to contain North Korea\u2019s nuclear threat when Trump tweeted that he should \u201cstop wasting his time\u201d and come home from Asia. <\/span><\/p>\n

This year, the Treasury Department announced sanctions against North Korea when President Trump canceled them one day later with a tweet. \u201cPresident Trump likes Chairman Kim, and he doesn\u2019t think these sanctions will be necessary,\u201d his press secretary explained.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such is his affection for Kim that Trump declared the nuclear threat ended after last year\u2019s Singapore summit, even as his advisors were admitting that the two sides do not even agree on what \u201cdenuclearization\u201d means.<\/span><\/p>\n

Last week the contradictions had to do with Venezuela.<\/span><\/p>\n

National security advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Pompeo have painted Russia\u2019s presence there as a reason for the United States to invoke the Monroe Doctrine and to insist that President Nicolas Maduro depart.<\/span><\/p>\n

On Friday morning, with his advisors at the Pentagon planning military action against Venezuela, President Trump reached for the phone to call Vladimir Putin. After a cordial 90-minute talk, Trump effectively ridiculed his own officials\u2019 statements, asserting that Putin \u201cis not looking at all to get involved in Venezuela, other than he\u2019d like to see something positive happen for Venezuela.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The President also contradicted Pompeo, who told the world that in the murky events of April 30, Maduro was ready to depart for Havana but followed Russian advice to remain. Trump said these were mere \u201crumors.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

With his chaotic communications, President Trump conveys that he alone is in charge, and maybe that is his intention. <\/span><\/p>\n

But he also communicates that those who speak for him can be contradicted at any moment, and may not represent his thinking or the positions of the U.S. government. It is an image of a strong executive in charge of a government that he renders incoherent.<\/span><\/p>\n

These characteristics of the Trump government may come into play as the diplomacy surrounding Venezuela enters a new phase.<\/span><\/p>\n

We may never fully know what happened in Caracas on April 30. It appears that there were talks between some Maduro officials and opposition figures, geared toward a constitutional action that would remove Maduro and move toward new elections. The degree to which the Maduro officials negotiated sincerely, or feigned disaffection to gather intelligence on the opposition and its foreign allies, is not known. <\/span><\/p>\n

What we do know is that U.S. allies are reacting with independence and calling for more diplomacy in a way that pressures the Trump Administration to change its approach. <\/span><\/p>\n

They can hardly be blamed. European allies were burned by the Trump Administration one year ago when it abandoned the Iran nuclear agreement, and Trump snubbed them again by using the Helms-Burton law to attack their businesses operating in Cuba. Neither they nor the Lima Group agree with Washington\u2019s effort to wage economic war on Venezuela and Cuba to force political change in both places, and they oppose the military intervention that Trump\u2019s advisors are threatening. <\/span><\/p>\n

Nor can they be impressed by Washington\u2019s performance on April 30, when John Bolton cited by name \u2013 in a press conference, on Twitter, and in a video message \u2013 three Maduro officials who he says agreed to defect and failed to do so. It is hard to imagine a better way to discourage them and all future defectors.<\/span><\/p>\n

So the Lima Group announced that it wanted Cuba to \u201cparticipate in the search for a solution to the crisis in Venezuela,\u201d and on its behalf Canada\u2019s prime minister called Cuba\u2019s president to relay that message \u2013 and to reiterate Canada\u2019s joint action with Europe to defend against the Helms-Burton law. The EU\u2019s top diplomat delivered the same message to Cuba\u2019s foreign minister. Amid all this movement, Secretary Pompeo now says that U.S. diplomats are in contact with Cuba about Venezuela. <\/span><\/p>\n

Cuba has welcomed the diplomatic overtures, but it remains to be seen if it will play a role other than that of staunch ideological defender of chavismo. It is hard to imagine Cuba soon accepting a solution that satisfies the Lima Group\u2019s insistence on elections that could replace Maduro. It will take time and, eventually, Havana admitting what it already knows \u2013 that Maduro is the main architect of Venezuela\u2019s mess. Sanctions and threats, needless to say, create precisely the wrong incentives.<\/span><\/p>\n

President Trump\u2019s role is equally complicated. His position is anchored in his own Florida electoral interest and would therefore seem to be firm, but his advisors must have their doubts. <\/span><\/p>\n

The core of the Venezuela debate is about Maduro\u2019s usurpation of democracy, a value that rarely animates Trump and that he invokes with regard to Venezuela only when reading a script. Otherwise, as in a long Fox <\/span>interview<\/span><\/a> last week, he repeatedly laments Venezuela\u2019s material scarcity and blames Maduro for allowing the country\u2019s wealth to dissipate, never once using the word \u201cdemocracy.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

One wonders how President Trump would react if Putin were to call him with a solution, especially one reflecting a Cuban contribution. In that same Fox interview, Trump said that if Cuba makes \u201cthe right moves\u201d regarding Venezuela, \u201cwe could open it up\u201d instead of imposing more Cuba sanctions. <\/span><\/p>\n

For Trump\u2019s closest advisors and political supporters, threats, ultimatums, and sanctions are the techniques of choice. They are uncomfortable with normal diplomacy that involves mutual concessions, and with allies in active and possibly leading roles. <\/span><\/p>\n

It makes them wonder who will be on the receiving end of the next Trump surprise.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With his chaotic communications, President Trump conveys that he alone is in charge, and maybe that is his intention.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3745,"featured_media":198387,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20040],"tags":[14891,14973,14827],"ppma_author":[34018,20041],"class_list":["post-198381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-washington","tag-cuba-usa-relations","tag-donald-trump-administration","tag-international-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s surprises | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/opinion\/columns\/from-washington\/trumps-surprises\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" 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