{"id":213884,"date":"2020-02-15T16:15:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-15T21:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=213884"},"modified":"2020-02-15T16:15:00","modified_gmt":"2020-02-15T21:15:00","slug":"partial-dollarization-of-cubas-economy-vs-monetary-reunification","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/partial-dollarization-of-cubas-economy-vs-monetary-reunification\/","title":{"rendered":"Partial dollarization of Cuba\u2019s economy vs monetary reunification"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It took off in 2020. A bad year was left behind, the precise evaluation of which requires an almost act of divination, given the total lack of data provided publicly by the authorities. For the first time in a long time an official GDP growth estimate is not given, which, although I don\u2019t share as a leading indicator of economic development, at least it conveys an idea.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Several events significantly affected the performance of 2019. To the insufficiencies of the internal economic policy to boost the domestic productive potential are added the new and very severe restrictions imposed by the United States administration, which limited the availability of fuels, affected visitor flows, and reinforced the atmosphere of distrust for foreign investors, among other effects.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, it cannot be said that it has been a year of inaction on the part of the Cuban government, nor that its efforts have been reduced to \u201ccyclical\u201d survival. In parallel, some measures with an impact on economic life were unleashed. For example, there was a close to 68% increase in the average salary in budgeted entities; and a set of small transformations towards greater decentralization in state enterprises was introduced.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But, without a doubt, of all of them the one with greatest media coverage was the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/opinion\/quo-vadis-las-tiendas-recaudadoras-de-divisas-en-cuba-y-los-parches-a-la-economia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">opening of stores<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for the sale of consumer goods directly in dollars, through debit cards.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"9DMmpyQXLm\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/echoes\/questions-about-most-recent-economic-measures-in-cuba\/\">Questions about most recent economic measures in Cuba<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Questions about most recent economic measures in Cuba&#8221; &#8212; OnCubaNews English\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/echoes\/questions-about-most-recent-economic-measures-in-cuba\/embed\/#?secret=3zsTaPyWXS#?secret=9DMmpyQXLm\" data-secret=\"9DMmpyQXLm\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><b>Dollarization officially expands<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During the first days after this decision was announced, on October 15, 2019, the CUC in the informal markets showed a depreciation of 10-20 percent fueled by speculation and expectations, and with the promise to continue being depreciated if the State did not intervene as a currency supplier.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the State did not intervene, in fact, it further restricted the sale of foreign currency from its banking institutions, it did not eliminate the 10 percent tax charged for the exchange of dollars in cash and, despite the predictions, the informal market seems to have stabilized at a rate close to 1.10 CUC = 1.00 USD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The authorities recently announced <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/cuba-authorizes-sale-of-automobiles-with-10-percent-discount\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">an expansion of this dollarized offer<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. The opening of more stores throughout the national territory, the inclusion of new products to the sales list, as well as the beginning\u2015finally\u2015of the \u201cimports by request,\u201d are the three elements announced as the \u201cnew measures\u201d that come to deepen this policy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After three months of its launch, taking into account the total absence of figures in what was explained by the officials, it is not possible to assess how the initial objectives are being met. \u201cThe measure has proven its validity,\u201d \u201chas been evolving dynamically,\u201d \u201cdemonstrates its fairness,\u201d are some of the statements made, positive with no evidence. Once again, without data, we would have to get help from a brave pythoness.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is not difficult to establish, even without figures, some gaps in that triumphalist approach. The state of chronic shortages that any observer would have found on February 6, for example, in the auto parts stores in the capital, is already a testimony to unexplained problems.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The direct acquisition of the first currencies should have immediately guaranteed the restocking in these markets. They should have been, since their birth, packed markets restricted by demand, since they don\u2019t require\u2015in theory\u2015the complex and diminished central currency allocation mechanism for their reproduction. Each product that is incorporated into this system must strictly comply with the principle that \u201cit never ends\u201d under penalty of damaging the sustainability and credibility of the mechanism.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The type of products that have been decided to offer is another striking issue. Until now, a magnificent opportunity to promote the acquisition of means of production, so necessary to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/20-recommendations-to-unblock-the-private-sector-in-cuba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">unblock<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> sectors such as agriculture, has not been taken advantage of, instead the policy has bet on consumer goods that reinforce a rentier pattern and an import vocation.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"HwD7sabRwd\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/measures-proposed-by-cuban-economists-in-the-face-of-the-crisis\/\">Measures proposed by Cuban economists in the face of the crisis<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Measures proposed by Cuban economists in the face of the crisis&#8221; &#8212; OnCubaNews English\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/measures-proposed-by-cuban-economists-in-the-face-of-the-crisis\/embed\/#?secret=8grrgZxZ7W#?secret=HwD7sabRwd\" data-secret=\"HwD7sabRwd\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><b>Redirecting imports on request<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Special mention should be made of the now repeated promise of \u201cimports on request,\u201d whose procedures had been <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cubadebate.cu\/noticias\/2019\/10\/15\/gobierno-cubano-anuncia-nuevas-medidas-economicas-video\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">formulated three months ago<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in Resolution 383 of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Investment (MINCEX). Here, it seems, there would be a 180 degree turn.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First, the foreign trade minister said last October that the sale price of these imports would comprise \u201ca small profit margin because the goal is to provide the service, not to get rich at its expense.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If this rule is maintained, the incorporation of cars for sale presents a conflict. If, as announced now, 85 percent of the price of cars is a source of revenue\u2015without doubting the fair destination of that collection\u2015the trade margin must necessarily be higher.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It could be asked whether the price formation policy of the remaining products that can be imported will respond to the ministerial logic of facilitating the operation through minimum margins, or of maximizing the revenues through the \u201cGuinness record\u201d method followed with car prices. The urgency that characterized the explanations given at the time of the launch of this policy in October now showed its totally opposite face.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the other hand, on that occasion it was announced that 11 enterprises would be authorized to operate the purchases. Among them were entities belonging to MINSEX itself, the Ministry of Industries, CITMA, ETECSA communications enterprise, the Ministry of Tourism, one directly subordinated to the Council of Ministers, as well as three others belonging to the Group of Business Administration SA (GAE)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After less than ninety days and without having made the first import, eight of these enterprises were unauthorized for some reason that was not made public. Now all import operations on request for sale in dollar stores are operated by only three enterprises: CIMEX, SASA and Tiendas Caribe, all under the control of the GAE system.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the biggest problem lies not in the monopolistic control of the State over this economic activity, but in the dangers of reducing even any potential space of competition between state entities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the building of an economy for the consumer is really what is intended, all monopolies that do not rely on minimum cost guarantee must be fought.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"qvTtOWY3p6\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/opinion\/cuba-re-dollarization-of-the-economy-and-failure-of-the-cuc\/\">Cuba: re-dollarization of the economy and failure of the CUC<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Cuba: re-dollarization of the economy and failure of the CUC&#8221; &#8212; OnCubaNews English\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/opinion\/cuba-re-dollarization-of-the-economy-and-failure-of-the-cuc\/embed\/#?secret=TuP8KCH9mj#?secret=qvTtOWY3p6\" data-secret=\"qvTtOWY3p6\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><b>Dollarization vs Reunification<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This emerging foreign exchange market can be extended according to the course taken by the economic policy during 2020. It will depend on the speed and radicalness with which the monetary reunification process is decided, as well as the dimensions granted to the private sector.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The idea that a part of the national industry can export its productss at the border is one of the main potentialities of this mechanism\u2015as noted in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/progresosemanal.us\/20191024\/dolarizacion-parcial-oportunidad-para-descentralizar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">previous works<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2015by allowing participating enterprises to brake the ties of the Liquidity Certificate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, even if undertaken with resolution, this process could take some time\u2015perhaps years\u2015before it begins to bear fruit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then, the authorities\u2019 betting on this option would be presented in frank contradiction with the idea of \u200b\u200ba short-term exchange unification process, which should guarantee by itself a stable and unified convertibility for the Cuban peso.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the decision is to carry out the unification in the course of this year, and the goal is to devalue the exchange rate as much as necessary to find its balance and to purge it of major distortions, then a parallel mechanism of dollar stores becomes redundant.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unless the tactic is another: to advance a process of partial dollarization, which divides the economy into emerging and traditional sectors, a model experienced successfully during the 1990s, where the emerging sector transfers most of its operations to dollars while producing gradual devaluations for the traditional sector, and attempts are made to control the uncertainties associated with social costs. Who knows.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Until the provided information of public interest is understood, no longer as a citizen right, but as a vital need for subsistence under current conditions, for economists and other social scientists called to provide solutions, we will have no other alternative but to continue guessing.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"wnnvwqDKBm\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/ten-necessary-economic-measures-for-cuba\/\">Ten necessary economic measures for Cuba<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Ten necessary economic measures for Cuba&#8221; &#8212; OnCubaNews English\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/ten-necessary-economic-measures-for-cuba\/embed\/#?secret=9mr3aMtrfq#?secret=wnnvwqDKBm\" data-secret=\"wnnvwqDKBm\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">* This text originally appeared in <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/progresosemanal.us\/20200213\/adivinando-en-cuba\/?fbclid=IwAR1ROyg0n0e1TAjH0cJHXVj5_q12Z4_XpPtOOaDwaXEHStwmGXC6GRbW9UE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Progreso Semanal. <\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is being reproduced with the permission of its publishers.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It took off in 2020. A bad year was left behind, the precise evaluation of which requires an almost act of divination, given the total lack of data provided publicly by the authorities. For the first time in a long time an official GDP growth estimate is not given, which, although I don\u2019t share as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3779,"featured_media":213885,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13902],"tags":[14816,29036],"ppma_author":[34057,29035],"class_list":["post-213884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cuba","tag-cuban-economy","tag-dollarization-of-cuban-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Partial dollarization of Cuba\u2019s economy vs monetary reunification | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The authorities recently announced an expansion of the dollarized offer to consumers, with almost nothing being known 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