In a matter of days, millions of Americans have had to change their habits due to the measures implemented by the government to stop the spread of the new coronavirus.<\/p>\n
Normally bustling streets are deserted and families are barricading themselves in their homes. Many of those who venture out try to keep a safe distance from anyone they meet, even if they are lining up to buy now-prized products like disinfectant gel. Parents juggle their schedules to take care of their children given the closing of the schools, perhaps for the rest of the year. And the restaurants are empty and increasingly choose to operate only for home delivery.<\/p>\n
How long will this last? Scientists say there is no simple answer to this question.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn many ways, this situation is unprecedented. We are trying to take some steps to curb the spread and momentum of this pandemic,\u201d said Stephen Morse, a disease researcher at Columbia University in New York.<\/p>\n
Yes, there have been previous disease outbreaks from which scientists can draw some conclusions but, in those cases, it was possible to let them run their course. \u201cSo those models are not applied accurately,\u201d added Morse.<\/p>\n
President Donald Trump said this Monday that the United States will be dealing with the crisis until July or August. And New York Governor Andrew Cuomo noted that the number of coronavirus cases in the state could reach its peak, not ending, in 45 days.<\/p>\n
The general message is that the country will be fighting this viral outbreak for a few months, not days or weeks.<\/p>\n
Each model of the spread of the disease is based on data and assumptions about population dynamics, demographics, health care system capacity, and other factors, explained Rebecca Katz, a public health expert at Georgetown University.<\/p>\n
The challenge in designing models of what will happen in the United States is that the limited resources to test COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, mean that the researchers do not know what the starting point is or how many people are already infected.<\/p>\n
In other words, scientists say the epidemic will slow down when infected people don’t pass the virus on to others.<\/p>\n
\u201cBasically, if I infect one person or more…the epidemic can take off. If I infect less than one person and everyone infects less than one person, then the epidemic will subside,\u201d said Elizabeth Halloran, a disease researcher at the University of Washington.<\/p>\n
\nDetenga la propagaci\u00f3n de g\u00e9rmenes. Ayude a prevenir la propagaci\u00f3n del nuevo #COVID19<\/a>.<\/p>\n
Para la \u00faltima informaci\u00f3n y actualizaciones de@CDCgov<\/a> sobre coronavirus, c\u00f3mo protegerse y los recursos para la comunidad, visite https:\/\/t.co\/iCRQrIDdnb<\/a> y @CDCespanol<\/a>. pic.twitter.com\/XnhX8NgfTw<\/a><\/p>\n
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