
{"id":221916,"date":"2020-05-28T14:57:23","date_gmt":"2020-05-28T18:57:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=221916"},"modified":"2020-05-28T14:57:23","modified_gmt":"2020-05-28T18:57:23","slug":"scientists-say-covid-19-will-be-endemic-in-cuba-a-fresh-outbreak-of-the-disease-is-expected-in-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/scientists-say-covid-19-will-be-endemic-in-cuba-a-fresh-outbreak-of-the-disease-is-expected-in-november\/","title":{"rendered":"Scientists say COVID-19 will be endemic in Cuba; a fresh outbreak of the disease is expected in November"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mathematical models developed by a group of Cuban scientists predict that <a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/tag\/coronavirus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">COVID-19<\/a> could become endemic on the island as of May 30, while Havana, epicenter of the epidemic in Cuba, will continue to report active cases until July 10.<\/p>\n<p>If the COVID-19 becomes endemic in Cuba, the first fresh outbreak of the disease should occur in mid-November, the dean of the Faculty of Mathematics at the University of Havana, Ra\u00fal Guinovart, told <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cubadebate.cu\/especiales\/2020\/05\/27\/cuba-se-prepara-para-la-fase-endemica-de-la-covid-19-que-esperar-en-los-proximos-meses\/#.Xs61CMqB6fB\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cubadebate <\/a><\/em>this Wednesday.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_221919\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-221919\" style=\"width: 739px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/punto-endemico-covid-19-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-221919\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/punto-endemico-covid-19-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"739\" height=\"619\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/punto-endemico-covid-19-1.jpg 739w, https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/punto-endemico-covid-19-1-300x251.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 739px) 100vw, 739px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-221919\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Endemic point model of COVID-19 in Cuba. Infographic: cubadebate.cu.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><em><strong>*Caption:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Reproductive number Ro=1.4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Amount of active persons<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Amount of susceptible persons<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe graph shows us that at the beginning of the disease the curve grew between susceptible and sick persons; then the number of infected people decreases to almost zero, as happens now when we are managing to control the disease; but then there will be a fresh outbreak with a more discreet peak because there remains a very large susceptible population,\u201d the professor explained.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLater the curve decreases again and then it would continue to infinity, unless current conditions change (everyone gets a vaccine or a vaccine emerges). The ideal in this graph is to have this point closer to zero in order to have fewer patients, the fresh outbreaks immunize more people but many others die,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p>The expert revealed that a simulation predicts that 70% of the population will be susceptible to becoming infected over time, while 0.4% will contract the disease, similar to what occurs in various endemic diseases, such as influenza.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_221923\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-221923\" style=\"width: 602px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/pronostico-casos-susceptibles-covid-19-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-221923\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/pronostico-casos-susceptibles-covid-19-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"602\" height=\"332\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/pronostico-casos-susceptibles-covid-19-1.jpg 602w, https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/pronostico-casos-susceptibles-covid-19-1-300x165.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-221923\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The graph shows people susceptible to contracting the disease. Infographic: cubadebate.cu.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><em><strong>*Caption:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Reproductive number Ro=1.4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Susceptibility Forecast<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Susceptible persons<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>En los d\u00edas solo hay que cambiar los siguientes:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>1\/jan\/21<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>10\/apr\/21<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Epidemic days<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the vice president of the Cuban Society of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Pedro M\u00e1s, warned that although during the fresh outbreaks or waves of the disease on the island the figures will be lower than those registered so far, this phenomenon should not be underestimated.<\/p>\n<p>According to M\u00e1s, it is estimated that the first fresh COVID-19 outbreak in Cuba will affect some 285 active cases, which is why resources must be prepared for that time.<\/p>\n<p>According to specialists, Cuba will open its international borders at some point, and although the epidemic is now controlled, when more people start arriving\u2015from the United States, for example, which has the largest community of Cubans abroad\u2015, the health situation will be more complex.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/especiales\/especial-sobre-la-covid-19\/?utm_source=home&amp;utm_medium=banner&amp;utm_campaign=Coronavirus&amp;utm_term=covid-19#datos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Here you can find the most current data<\/a> and how the coronavirus curve is evolving in C<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mathematical models developed by a group of Cuban scientists predict that COVID-19 could become endemic on the island as of May 30, while Havana, epicenter of the epidemic in Cuba, will continue to report active cases until July 10. If the COVID-19 becomes endemic in Cuba, the first fresh outbreak of the disease should occur [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3134,"featured_media":221918,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13902],"tags":[29532,15273],"ppma_author":[33546,8689],"class_list":["post-221916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cuba","tag-coronavirus-in-cuba","tag-cuban-science"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scientists say COVID-19 will be endemic in Cuba; a fresh outbreak of the disease is expected in November | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If the COVID-19 becomes endemic in Cuba, the first fresh outbreak of the disease should occur in mid-November, said the dean of the Faculty of Mathematics of the University of Havana, Ra\u00fal Guinovart.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/scientists-say-covid-19-will-be-endemic-in-cuba-a-fresh-outbreak-of-the-disease-is-expected-in-november\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scientists say COVID-19 will be endemic in Cuba; 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