
{"id":228889,"date":"2020-10-12T14:10:33","date_gmt":"2020-10-12T18:10:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=228889"},"modified":"2020-10-12T14:10:33","modified_gmt":"2020-10-12T18:10:33","slug":"cuba-and-the-2020-u-s-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba-usa\/cuba-and-the-2020-u-s-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Cuba and the 2020 U.S. elections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The main alternative in the 2020 presidential elections, with respect to Cuba, is summarized in the probability of unlocking the asymmetric conflict with candidate Biden and with more uncertainty in a second term with Trump. Biden can start a virtuous cycle, in which the limited changes he envisions acquire momentum and generate in themselves new liberalizing dynamics in the United States and Cuba, with a feedback for both. Trump is a walking question mark, who\u2015as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/mundo\/ee-uu\/libro-de-bolton-contradice-argumentos-de-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">John Bolton\u2019s memoirs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> show\u2015does not offer a predictable policy toward the Western Hemisphere, particularly toward Venezuela.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>If Biden wins<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on U.S. national interests and values, if Biden were to become president, he should restore and deepen Obama\u2019s policy at the end of his term. With four years to implement them, he must dismantle as soon as possible the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/nation-now\/2017\/05\/11\/agitprop-what-agitprop\/317957001\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">agitprop<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> machinery in favor of the existing blockade\/embargo in Miami, which has only served to stigmatize the Democratic position. If there is a liberal and anti-embargo president, who believes that the isolation policy is counterproductive to the promotion of human rights in Cuba, all posts for appointment on Radio\/TV Mart\u00ed and USAID funds should go to groups with that position.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, it is symptomatic that Biden has not emphasized the issue and has sought to win Cuban votes in Florida by appealing to other issues on the progressive agenda (jobs and health). The strategy towards Cuba came out in Miami during the Democratic primary because of the nuanced statements of Senator Bernie Sanders. The Vermont senator, from the Social Democratic wing, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/cuba-ee-uu\/bernie-sanders-es-injusto-decir-simplemente-que-todo-esta-mal-en-cuba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">contrasted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> totalitarian defects in the Cuban political system with its favorable performance in health and education. Biden did not hesitate to criticize him, based on the total demonization of the Cuban government\u2019s management that prevails in the political discourse of the main parties, ignoring that Sanders\u2019 same position had been stated before by Obama, Carter and even Bill Clinton.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"XrnYyqmma1\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/ecos\/senor-biden-por-favor-hablenos-a-nosotros-los-cubanoamericanos\/\">Se\u00f1or Biden, por favor h\u00e1blenos a nosotros: los cubanoamericanos.<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"\u00abSe\u00f1or Biden, por favor h\u00e1blenos a nosotros: los cubanoamericanos.\u00bb \u2014 OnCubaNews\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/ecos\/senor-biden-por-favor-hablenos-a-nosotros-los-cubanoamericanos\/embed\/#?secret=H92dV9sK2E#?secret=XrnYyqmma1\" data-secret=\"XrnYyqmma1\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To that precedent should be added a whole dominant narrative in a part of the organizers of the Democratic campaign in Florida, which insists on denying Obama\u2019s change as what is pertinent or appropriate to American interests and values, and to international law. Rather, they pose the policy of rapprochement initiated by President Obama as a mere modification of methods to achieve the same objectives of regime change, Helms-Burton style, imposed from Miami on the island. Objectives that sanctions have not been able to achieve. Even Obama used that crooked logic at some point.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At this time, such a proposal has neither head nor tail and only serves as a fatuous tribute on the altars of the McCarthyite Cuban right, confusing the liberal bases, without educating them on the importance of breaking with a binary approach to Cuba. Dismantling the legacy of the Cuban Revolution and imposing the heirs of the prerevolutionary political elites in Cuba is impossible without a U.S. military intervention, a total collapse of the Cuban government, caused by hunger, based on the most inhumane regime of sanctions, and a bloodbath.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Within the Obama administration, those obsessed with keeping Miami\u2019s right wing happy made the president repeat the ridiculous mantra that methods were changed to obtain the same regime change. However, as of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/opinion\/columnas\/proposiciones\/17d\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">December 17, 2014<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the president had a forward-looking approach than many of his advisers and above all, that the merchants who donated money to his campaigns to get in on the act without understanding elementary rules of diplomacy and Cuba\u2019s history. In politics, whoever changes means has to adjust ends. Recognizing the Cuban government and opening contacts between the two countries, the dismantling not only of the methods, but also of the maximalist ends of the right-wing exile agenda is inevitable.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whoever tries an approach of dialogue and rapprochement towards Cuba cannot do without the existing Cuba. They will have to live with the consequences of the Cuban Revolution, not as \u201can accident\u201d\u2015according to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/cuba-ee-uu\/marco-rubio-se-desdice-sobre-el-socialismo-de-bernie-sanders\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Senator Marco Rubio\u2019s<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> diagnosis\u2015but as a fait accompli. A policy of transforming the political regime may seek to democratize the post-revolutionary system, but by accepting, at least, a partial legitimacy, and through evolutionary pathways. That is, accepting the defeat of the imperial claim and of the Cubans who bet on Washington to solve their problems.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>If Trump wins<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump is a quirky president with a big ego. His <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/cuba-ee-uu\/la-guerra-economica-de-trump-contra-cuba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cuba policy<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will be largely defined by his instincts, his business interests and his \u201cgreat vision\u201d of the legacy he is going to leave. As recent memoirs by former Trump adviser John Bolton have revealed, the president\u2019s <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">America first<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> position is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/mundo\/la-confusa-politica-de-trump-hacia-venezuela-descrita-por-bolton\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">just a slogan<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, without much coherence or reflection on what it means to implement a nationalist conception. If it is assumed as a \u201csystematized\u201d position, it is better understood as <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">America only<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a unilateral position, with which Trump hopes to dictate his mandates to a multipolar world.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Without rhyme or reason, on September 24, the Trump presidential campaign mounted an uncreative voter party, under the pretext of honoring the Bay of Pigs \u201cheroes\u201d for the umpteenth time. It is incomprehensible that Trump, who disqualified Senator John McCain from being a \u201cwar hero\u201d because he was captured in Vietnam, is coming down now with the news that his administration will always pay tribute to the heroes of an invasion that is synonymous with fiasco in the history of the Central Intelligence Agency. The vast majority of \u201cthe heroes\u201d were captured and in many cases traded for baby food.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is also curious that, if the anniversary of the Bay of Pigs invasion is celebrated in April, Trump has had this last-minute divine revelation to remember in September that he will honor the \u201cheroes who were defeated.\u201d Someone with some misgiving might think that everything is an electoral farce, to create catharsis and manipulate the traumas of the Cuban exile, with a view to mobilizing that base for the November elections.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The suspicion was confirmed by the aforementioned revelry. Trump said almost nothing about the Bay of Pigs battles, but about the merits of his government, in recognizing the veterans of Brigade 2506. In line with Gente de Zona, it would be necessary to say \u201cMiami confirmed it\u201d when listening to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/cuba-ee-uu\/mario-diaz-balart-reelecto-por-falta-de-presentacion-de-contrincantes-republicanos-y-democratas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mario D\u00edaz-Balart<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> throw a panegyric of the banana republic, taken from the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fiesta del Chivo<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by his namesake Mario Vargas-Llosa. \u201cNever, never,\u201d said the congressman, \u201cno one has done as much for freedom and democracy in the hemisphere as President Trump.\u201d Excuse me, Washington, Jefferson, Adams, Abe Lincoln, Jos\u00e9 Mart\u00ed, Sim\u00f3n Bol\u00edvar, Jos\u00e9 Figueres and many others, but Trump, according to D\u00edaz-Balart, has surpassed them.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The most probable thing is that Trump will continue by inertia with the same Cuba policy, but it\u2019s not ruled out that he will seek to negotiate with the island, once Ra\u00fal Castro has retired in 2021, if it suits him.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is known that, before winning the presidency, even in the middle of the Republican Party primary, he sent several of his subordinates to explore business possibilities in Cuba, in light of the Obama thaw. To this must be added that the most pro-embargo members of his team have been fired (John Bolton) or exported (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/mundo\/cubano-americano-claver-carone-presidira-el-banco-interamericano-de-desarrollo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mauricio Claver Carone<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">) to the Inter-American Development Bank. Nothing guarantees that new \u201chawks\u201d in favor of strengthening measures against Cuba will not reach a possible second Trump administration, but it is difficult to imagine a staff as obsessive and irrational as those cases were.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The maxim of \u201ckeeping Rubio happy\u201d (a phrase attributed to Trump to define Cuba policy), as a guide to policy towards the island, could be affected when Senator Rubio (Florida Republican) begins his election campaign for the year 2024, and tries to keep some distance from the White House. Trump doesn\u2019t believe in conditional supports.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Cuba should not wait for the end of the blockade<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Harassment by the United States, as a great power in Cuba\u2019s backyard, is a factor of undoubted weight in Cuban internal politics. Only a fool could ignore a U.S. policy hostile not just to the government, but even to civil society and the growing Cuban private sector.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"ZCLRX9bv1j\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/cuba\/onu-advierte-que-sanciones-a-cuba-y-otros-paises-no-se-han-relajado-durante-la-pandemia\/\">ONU advierte que sanciones a Cuba y otros pa\u00edses no se han relajado durante la pandemia<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"\u00abONU advierte que sanciones a Cuba y otros pa\u00edses no se han relajado durante la pandemia\u00bb \u2014 OnCubaNews\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/cuba\/onu-advierte-que-sanciones-a-cuba-y-otros-paises-no-se-han-relajado-durante-la-pandemia\/embed\/#?secret=cRyIsWc5Y6#?secret=ZCLRX9bv1j\" data-secret=\"ZCLRX9bv1j\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Having said this and accepting the circumstances, the different Cuban actors cannot justify the paralysis of an agenda of not only economic changes and reforms, but also a democratizing of politics, based on what the U.S. does. The adoption of a mixed economy in Cuba and the democratization of Cuban politics are not impositions of the United States, which with its policy of blockade has never sought such goals, but rather a Platt relationship of domination.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the contrary, they are patriotic goals. The Cuban national interest is to have a transparent government, without corruption, representative of the different opinions of the country, inspired by moderation, \u201cwhich is the spirit of Cuba,\u201d according to Jos\u00e9 Mart\u00ed. This is achieved based on the recognition of plurality.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of course, the search for a peaceful, stable and orderly transition to a more politically open order has to take into account the circumstances of the international relations of the country and the world, but never be held hostage to them. With and without a blockade, access to information and pluralism in Cuban society have increased substantially since the travel liberalization in 2013, with greater access to the internet and expansions in rights such as private ownership and professing the religion that each one chooses (or not), beyond the freedom of worship. You cannot govern that new country without a charisma like that of Fidel Castro and with the old ideological patterns.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The main alternative in the 2020 presidential elections, with respect to Cuba, is summarized in the probability of unlocking the asymmetric conflict with candidate Biden and with more uncertainty in a second term with Trump. Biden can start a virtuous cycle, in which the limited changes he envisions acquire momentum and generate in themselves new [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3139,"featured_media":228890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13944],"tags":[14891,14823],"ppma_author":[33777,20382],"class_list":["post-228889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cuba-usa","tag-cuba-usa-relations","tag-u-s-elections"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cuba and the 2020 U.S. elections | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What happens if Biden wins? What happens if Trump wins? 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Es Doctor en Estudios Internacionales de la Escuela Josef Korbel de la Universidad de Denver. Estudi\u00f3 maestr\u00edas de Asuntos Internacionales en la Universidad de Columbia en Nueva York y Econom\u00eda en la Universidad de Carleton en Ottawa, Canad\u00e1. En Cuba se gradu\u00f3 en la Academia Diplom\u00e1tica (ISRI). Es coautor del libro \u201cRa\u00fal Castro and the New Cuba; A Close-up view of Change\u201d, McFarland, 2012. En 2005, gan\u00f3 el premio \u201cLeonard Marks\u201d de ensayo creativo sobre pol\u00edtica exterior de Estados Unidos que otorga la Academia Americana de Diplomacia. Naci\u00f3 en Santa Clara, Cuba. Vive en Berkeley, California.\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/oncubanews.com\\\/en\\\/author\\\/arturolopezlevy\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Cuba and the 2020 U.S. elections | OnCubaNews English","description":"What happens if Biden wins? What happens if Trump wins? 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