{"id":240983,"date":"2021-07-01T15:13:47","date_gmt":"2021-07-01T19:13:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=240983"},"modified":"2021-07-01T15:13:47","modified_gmt":"2021-07-01T19:13:47","slug":"fear-of-florida-why-biden-doesnt-act-on-cuba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba-usa\/fear-of-florida-why-biden-doesnt-act-on-cuba\/","title":{"rendered":"Fear of Florida: Why Biden doesn’t act on Cuba"},"content":{"rendered":"

The U.S.\u00a0vote<\/a>\u00a0in the United Nations General Assembly against the resolution calling on the United States to lift its embargo on Cuba is another example of President\u00a0Joe Biden<\/a><\/span>\u2019s reluctance to move away from\u00a0Donald Trump<\/a><\/span>\u2019s Cuba policy. The first signal was the administration\u2019s\u00a0decision to reaffirm<\/a>, with no real evidence, Trump\u2019s determination that Cuba is not supporting U.S. counterterrorism efforts.<\/p>\n

The reason for Biden\u2019s failure to reengage with Cuba, despite\u00a0promising<\/a>\u00a0he would during the campaign, is fear of Florida. Democrats are still suffering electoral PTSD from\u00a0Al Gore<\/span>\u00a0losing the state \u2014 and the presidency \u2014 to\u00a0George W. Bush\u00a0by 537 votes, a loss in which Cuba was a central issue and Cuban Americans played a\u00a0pivotal role<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Gore won just\u00a020 percent<\/a>\u00a0of the Cuban American vote in Florida in 2000, far below\u00a0Bill Clinton<\/span>\u2019s tally of\u00a035 percent<\/a>\u00a0four years earlier. The reason was\u00a0Eli\u00e1n Gonz\u00e1lez, the five-year-old boy found floating in an inner tube after his mother and other Cuban adults drowned trying to cross the Florida Straits. To the outrage of most Cuban Americans, the Clinton Justice Department forcibly seized Eli\u00e1n from his uncle in Miami in April 2000, and returned him to his father in Cuba. In November, Cuban Americans cast a \u201cvoto castigo<\/a>\u201d \u2014 a punishment vote \u2014 against Gore, who was Clinton\u2019s vice president at the time.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s Florida campaign strategy in 2020 was to say as little about Cuba as possible because nothing he could say would win votes and whatever he said would certainly lose some. This left the electoral battlefield to Republicans, whose carefully crafted appeals to Cuban Americans (and Venezuelan Americans and Colombia Americans)\u00a0branded Democrats<\/a>\u00a0as socialists.<\/p>\n

The result was a\u00a0Democratic debacle<\/a>. Biden won Miami-Dade County by just 7 percent, compared to\u00a0Hillary Clinton<\/span>\u2019s 30 percent margin in 2016, a decline that put Florida\u2019s electoral votes well out of reach. Democrats also lost two House seats that they thought were safe. Trump won\u00a0more than 60 percent<\/a>\u00a0of the Cuban American vote \u2014 the most since Bush in 2000.<\/p>\n

This new trauma has intensified the Democrats\u2019 fear of Florida at a moment when it looms large in calculations for the 2022 midterm elections. In an uphill battle to hold their House majority, Democrats will try to\u00a0win back those two House seats<\/a>\u00a0in Miami-Dade. Rep.\u00a0Val Demings<\/a>\u00a0(D-Fla.), who made the short list to be Biden\u2019s vice president, has declared her candidacy to challenge Republican Sen.\u00a0Marco Rubio<\/span>, and Democrats also hope to dethrone\u00a0Gov. Ron DeSantis\u00a0(R).<\/p>\n

\u201cThe past is never dead. It’s not even past,\u201d William Faulkner\u00a0wrote<\/a>, and so it is for Democrats and the 2000 election.\u00a0Ron Klain<\/a><\/span>, Biden\u2019s chief of staff, was chief of staff to then-vice president Gore and general counsel of Gore’s Recount Committee in 2000. \u201cI am not over it,\u201d he told\u00a0The Atlantic<\/a>\u00a0last year. \u201cI don\u2019t think I\u2019ll ever be over it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Manny D\u00edaz, the new chair of the Florida Democratic Party tasked with recouping Democratic losses among Florida\u2019s Latino diasporas, was the lawyer for Eli\u00e1n Gonz\u00e1lez\u2019s Miami relatives, a role that launched his political career. Neither Klain nor D\u00edaz are likely advocates for improving relations with Havana.<\/p>\n

The Biden administration\u2019s long drawn out Cuba\u00a0policy review<\/a>\u00a0suggests that the White House can\u2019t figure out how to manage the issue\u2019s political risks. On the campaign trail,\u00a0Biden pledged<\/a>\u00a0to reverse Trump\u2019s sanctions that hurt Cuban families, restore travel to the island and engage with the Cuban government on issues of mutual interest. This modest agenda is more reminiscent of\u00a0Clinton\u2019s policy<\/a>\u00a0circa 1998 than Obama\u2019s opening in 2014. But if and when it is announced as policy, the firestorm of Republican condemnations will be no less vitriolic.<\/p>\n

In the three decades since Cuban Americans became a force to be reckoned with in presidential politics, only one Democratic candidate has come close to winning a majority of their support \u2014\u00a0Barack Obama<\/span>. He did it not by trying to dodge or downplay the Cuba issue, but by engaging it head-on and appealing to moderate Cuban Americans who favor a less antagonistic approach. In 2008, he won\u00a035 percent<\/a>\u00a0of the Cuban American vote \u2014 at the time, the high watermark for Democratic presidential candidates. In 2012,\u00a0he won 48 percent<\/a>. In the two years after Obama announced his decision to normalize relations with Cuba, Cuban American\u00a0support for his policy<\/a>\u00a0increased from 51 to 56 percent.<\/p>\n

The lesson of Obama\u2019s success is that leadership matters. The best strategy for defending a politically controversial foreign policy is to do what makes the most sense as foreign policy and defend it vigorously in the public arena. On Cuba, the alternative is to continue Trump\u2019s failed policy of hostility \u2014 a policy that serves no practical U.S. national interests and cynically sacrifices the welfare of the Cuban people on the altar of Florida politics.<\/p>\n

\n

\n

William M. LeoGrande is professor of government at American University in Washington, D.C., and co-author of \u201cBack Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana.\u201d \u00a0Twitter: @WMLeoGrande<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S.\u00a0vote\u00a0in the United Nations General Assembly against the resolution calling on the United States to lift its embargo on Cuba is another example of President\u00a0Joe Biden\u2019s reluctance to move away from\u00a0Donald Trump\u2019s Cuba policy. The first signal was the administration\u2019s\u00a0decision to reaffirm, with no real evidence, Trump\u2019s determination that Cuba is not supporting U.S. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3715,"featured_media":240985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13944],"tags":[14891,33419,27090],"ppma_author":[34366],"class_list":["post-240983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cuba-usa","tag-cuba-usa-relations","tag-joe-biden","tag-u-s-embargo"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFear of Florida: Why Biden doesn't act on Cuba | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba-usa\/fear-of-florida-why-biden-doesnt-act-on-cuba\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fear of Florida: Why Biden doesn't act on Cuba | OnCubaNews English\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The U.S.\u00a0vote\u00a0in the United Nations General Assembly against the resolution calling on the United States to lift its embargo on Cuba is another example of President\u00a0Joe Biden\u2019s reluctance to move away from\u00a0Donald Trump\u2019s Cuba policy. 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