{"id":262569,"date":"2022-12-22T12:35:16","date_gmt":"2022-12-22T17:35:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=262569"},"modified":"2022-12-22T12:35:16","modified_gmt":"2022-12-22T17:35:16","slug":"economy-2022-once-upon-a-time-in-cuba-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/economy\/economy-2022-once-upon-a-time-in-cuba-i\/","title":{"rendered":"Economy 2022: once upon a time in Cuba (I)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nearing the end of 2022, in the 5th Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), Minister of Economy and Planning Alejandro Gil <\/span>recognized\u00a0<\/b><\/a>that \u201cthe levels projected in the economy\u201d were not reached. It\u2019s not a surprise. The irrefutable proof, beyond numbers and measurements, lies in the collective feeling that, after one more calendar, improvement in the satisfaction of their basic needs is not perceived. Rather the opposite.<\/span><\/p>\n

As officially reported by Gil, in 2022 exports did not grow; foreign exchange earnings were lower than expected; the figures planned for tourism were not reached; the deficit of fuels and energy directly affected the production of the primary and secondary sectors; and in mercantile circulation, it was not possible to stabilize prices or control inflation, because supply levels did not increase.<\/span><\/p>\n

In economic matters, a year has passed marked by realities and events that are worth looking at again. To this end, we propose a review of some of the most significant aspects of the last twelve months in Cuba.<\/span><\/p>\n

Energy crisis shuts down productive sector<\/b><\/p>\n

The fuel and energy deficit slowed down productive activity. Although the statistics of the annual reduction are still unknown, Gil confirmed the \u201cslowdown in the production of cement, steel, agriculture, the sugar industry and other lines\u201d for this reason.<\/span><\/p>\n

Energy production was a critical issue in 2022. The highest levels of deficit in power generation were recorded since the 1990s, within the framework of a crisis that combined the deterioration of the electrical energy infrastructure and difficulties with the supply of fuels.<\/span><\/p>\n

In practical terms, the crisis affected all lines of production, state and non-state, in one way or another. The lack of generation capacity exceeded 1,100 MW per day in August 2022, and 1,600 MW in November, while demand at peak hours was around 3,000 MW. For its part, difficulties with the production of hydrocarbons in Venezuela \u2014 the main supplier \u2014 reduced the arrival of fuels from that nation to an <\/span>average<\/b><\/a>\u00a0of 56,610 barrels per day in the first half of 2022, from the 115,000 received in 2015.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Photo: EFE\/Ernesto Mastrascusa. Taken from Primera Hora.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In August, President Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel <\/span>announced<\/b><\/a> \u201cthe recovery of around 290 MW in thermoelectric plants, more than 400 in new technologies and another 190 MW in distributed generation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent news reports informed on the synchronization of seven Turkish power boats with a total availability of 400 MW of power, located in the bays of Mariel, Havana and Santiago de Cuba; and the installation of twelve new generator sets purchased from Russia, with a generation capacity of 89 MW.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00edaz-Canel\u2019s visit to Algeria, Russia, Turkey and China focused on the energy sector, and had among its results the commitment of these key trading partners to help alleviate the energy crisis on the island; in particular, Algeria and Russia, which have agreed to provide regular supplies of oil, to be added to those arriving from Venezuela.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nearing the end of 2022, a recovery of power generation capacity and a reduction in scheduled power outages are beginning to be perceived. A decrease in the daily deficit has been reported to reach levels below 200 MW for the first time in the year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Against the wall of the debt<\/b><\/p>\n

In 2022 Cuba remained in a debt default; that is, in a breach of its external credit commitments, which began in the second half of 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although this year there was news of the postponement of debt service payments with Russia and China until 2027 \u2014 though default interest will be applied \u2014, and the presidential tour of November 2022 <\/span>led<\/b><\/a>\u00a0to the signing of twelve agreements (some of them linked to the reopening of new financing), the financial credibility of the island remains seriously affected.<\/span><\/p>\n

The effects of the loss of financial credibility \u2014 which can only be recovered through debt negotiation and payment \u2014 are evident in the difficulty in accessing new credits, the main source to guarantee the import of resources and raw materials, both to produce food and to generate power.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Photo: Kaloian.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Without restoring external financial flows, an anti-inflationary plan that allows price control and contributes to macroeconomic stabilization in the medium term cannot be undertaken either.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Cuban president declared that the commitments of the four nations on the restructuring of Cuba\u2019s debt, as well as the granting of new financing for trade and investment, are a relief.<\/span><\/p>\n

But just that. As former Minister of Economy and Planning Jos\u00e9 Luis Rodr\u00edguez, <\/span>has underlined<\/b><\/a>, if it is not possible to \u201cpay something or some agreement with the creditors that is not only postponing the payment,\u201d \u201cexternal financing\u201d will not be reactivated and the country will not have \u201cfresh financing.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Tourism and currencies that never arrived<\/b><\/p>\n

The number of tourists expected to arrive in Cuba in 2022 and who did not is estimated at 800,000. It represents almost a third of the total of 2.5 million planned.<\/span><\/p>\n

With access to external financing reduced due to indebtedness levels, this year the Cuban economy was counting on the recovery of tourism and the income in foreign currency it would provide.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, even when the planned figures were far from those obtained in the last decade and, in particular, between 2016 and 2019 \u2014 at which time the indicators of international visitors exceeded 4 million per year, with associated income of more than 2 billion dollars \u2014 the plans were not fulfilled.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Photo: Kaloian.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In fact, the recovery rate of the sector behaved slower than in the rest of the Americas, where it reached 60% only in the first half of the year, while in Cuba a modest 26.6% was registered in relation to the same period in 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

The average occupancy rate of international tourism in Cuba between January and September 2022 was barely 14.2%, according to <\/span>data<\/b><\/a>\u00a0from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), well below that <\/span>registered<\/b><\/a> between 2016 and 2020, when <\/span>it stood at<\/b><\/a> around 50%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the indicators, this year the authorities persisted in the commitment to tourism as the engine of the national economy. Of the total to be invested by the country, 24% was <\/span>concentrated<\/b><\/a> in business services, real estate and rental activities, apart from the urgent need for investments in food production and the energy sphere. Investment in agriculture was nine times lower, with only 2.6% of the total.<\/span><\/p>\n

The most recent update of the <\/span>Portfolio of Foreign Investment Opportunities <\/b><\/a>included a total of 130 tourism-related business possibilities, which rank second in number of opportunities, only surpassed by 197 in food production.<\/span><\/p>\n

GDP fluctuations\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Preliminary calculations <\/span>project<\/b><\/a>\u00a0a growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of only 2%, half the expected figure, and which is 8 percentage points less than what was achieved in 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

Authorized voices agree that the growth of the indicator is directly related to the increase in imports and investment.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the words of Jos\u00e9 Luis Rodr\u00edguez,<\/span>1<\/b><\/sup> to achieve a growth of 1% in the GDP under the conditions of Cuba, an increase in imports of between 2% and 3% is required, and a Foreign Direct Investment of between 2 billion and 2.5 billion dollars annually.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Cuban economist Pedro Monreal <\/span>has stressed<\/b><\/a> that \u201ca stable growth of around 5% per year would require a rate of gross capital formation (investment) of close to 25% of GDP in Cuba.\u201d In 2021, the rate was only 16.3%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under current conditions, imports do not escape the limits imposed by the lack of financing itself due to low foreign exchange earnings; the lack of external financing due to the sustained debt default; the maintenance of the U.S. financial sanctions and the increase of almost 50% of the prices in the international market in 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, the necessary \u201cleap\u201d in Foreign Investment has not materialized. Between 2020 and 2021, 47 new businesses were approved in Cuba, of which only 25 had been established in the first half of the current year. Since 2014, only 285 businesses have been approved \u2014 of these, 29 reinvestments \u2014, with financial contributions far below what is necessary.<\/span><\/p>\n

Preliminary calculations on GDP in 2022 <\/span>coincide<\/b><\/a>\u00a0with the forecasts of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which reduced Cuba\u2019s growth estimate to 2% this year. For 2023, the Cuban minister of economy <\/span>announced\u00a0<\/b><\/a>a minimum GDP growth of 3%. ECLAC\u2019s projection for Cuba in the indicator for 2023, however, is only 1.8%.<\/span><\/p>\n

To be continued\u2026<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Note:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

1<\/b> Jos\u00e9 Luis Rodr\u00edguez: \u201cUna primera mirada a la econom\u00eda cubana.\u201d In: <\/span>Cuba<\/span><\/i> magazine: economic research. No. 1, January-July 2016. Havana, National Institute of Economic Research.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A review of some of the most significant economic aspects of the last twelve months in Cuba.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12345738,"featured_media":262572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13903],"tags":[14816],"ppma_author":[34524],"class_list":["post-262569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-cuban-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEconomy 2022: once upon a time in Cuba (I) | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A review of some of the most significant economic aspects of the last twelve months in Cuba.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/economy\/economy-2022-once-upon-a-time-in-cuba-i\/\" \/>\n<meta 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