{"id":265823,"date":"2023-03-01T11:19:04","date_gmt":"2023-03-01T16:19:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=265823"},"modified":"2023-03-01T11:19:04","modified_gmt":"2023-03-01T16:19:04","slug":"cubas-demographic-crossroads-no-working-age-young-people-in-sight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/cubas-demographic-crossroads-no-working-age-young-people-in-sight\/","title":{"rendered":"Cuba\u2019s demographic crossroads: no working-age young people in sight"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cuba is facing a crossroads in the midst of one of its biggest economic crises in history: how to recover when <\/span>its society is aging<\/b><\/a> rapidly and it does not have a young work force to produce.<\/span><\/p>\n

The island is already the oldest country in Latin America and the Caribbean. Two out of every ten Cubans (21.9%) are at least 60 years old, the director of the Center for Demographic Studies of the University of Havana (CEDEM), Antonio Aj\u00e1, told EFE.<\/span><\/p>\n

This means that of the 11.1 million Cubans, about 2.4 million exceed the barrier of six decades of life.<\/span><\/p>\n

The academician highlighted that this is the result of social policies implemented decades ago that have lengthened life expectancy (approximately 79 years for both sexes).<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this brings with it a problem from the economic and social point of view.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is a challenge in the order of the economically active population that is smaller, in the social security, health and protection systems for the elderly,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

That is to say: there are more and more elderly people and fewer young people of working age to sustain the country\u2019s economic activity. And, in the long run, to finance the pension system.<\/span><\/p>\n

Data from the National Statistics and Information Office show that in 2021 there were 99,096 births and 167,645 deaths.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cCuba\u2019s demographic performance is similar to that of developed nations (low fertility, high life expectancy), but the difference is that they are countries that receive immigrants and also counteract demographic aging with their economic development,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

The number of \u201cdependent\u201d people is also increasing: those who do not produce and live on their pensions after having contributed to the economy, Cuban economist Tamarys Bahamonde explained to EFE.<\/span><\/p>\n

The retirement age in Cuba is 60 years (women) and 65 years (men) with a minimum monthly pension of 1,528 Cuban pesos (12 dollars at the official exchange rate and 8.7 in the widespread informal market).<\/span><\/p>\n

Economy and migration<\/b><\/p>\n

The loss of working-age young people is largely explained by the unprecedented migratory exodus that the country is experiencing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Just last year, more than 313,000 Cubans were intercepted on the U.S. southern border with Mexico. This represents 3% of the total population of Cuba.<\/span><\/p>\n

The figure does not include the thousands of islanders who left for other destinations such as Mexico, Spain or South America.<\/span><\/p>\n

This phenomenon was recognized a few days ago by \u00c1ngel Luis R\u00edos, general director of the Productive Chain of the state-owned Azcuba sugar producing enterprise.<\/span><\/p>\n

R\u00edos assured the official newspaper <\/span>Granma<\/span><\/i> that the sugar mills \u2014 once the locomotive of the economy \u2014 have reduced and aged personnel due to \u201cthe effect of migration\u201d and that this has resulted in a deficit in the harvest.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cCuba has had a negative migratory balance since 1930 that was reinforced as of 1959 (when the Revolution triumphed), which is why it loses population in full reproductive and productive capacity,\u201d said Professor Aj\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Antonio Aj\u00e1, director of the Center for Demographic Studies of the University of Havana (CEDEM). Photo: Ernesto Mastrascusa\/EFE.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Internal migration is also negative with \u201cdepopulated and aging\u201d rural areas, a \u201cworrying\u201d issue, for example, when it comes to producing food because there are no people to work the land, according to the expert.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another reason for labor force flight is the lack of incentives. The average salary in Cuba is about 4,000 CUPS (32 dollars at the official exchange rate).<\/span><\/p>\n

Greater burden for women<\/b><\/p>\n

The fertility rate in Cuba is 1.4 children per woman, one of the lowest in the region, which was around 1.85 in 2022, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).<\/span><\/p>\n

To maintain the replacement level in the population, women must have two children and one of them must be a girl, explained Aj\u00e1, who stressed that \u201cCuba has been below that indicator since 1978 with extremely low values in recent years.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

For Bahamonde, meanwhile, \u201cthe very low birth rate has its causes in the economic crises that have been chaotic for society, especially for women because the responsibility of caring for the elderly falls on them.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Government response<\/b><\/p>\n

By the year 2030, elderly Cubans will represent 30% of the population which will not exceed 10 million, according to Professor Aj\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Population aging, an urgent matter<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n