{"id":278521,"date":"2023-07-31T19:40:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-31T23:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=278521"},"modified":"2023-07-31T19:40:07","modified_gmt":"2023-07-31T23:40:07","slug":"a-third-way-dont-sell-us-short","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/echoes\/a-third-way-dont-sell-us-short\/","title":{"rendered":"A Third Way? Don’t Sell Us Short"},"content":{"rendered":"

In case you hadn\u2019t noticed \u2014 and how could you not? \u2014 there have been more than 500 (yes, 500-plus!) wildfires\u00a0burning<\/a>\u00a0across the vast reaches of Canada, an unheard-of number, and more than half of them completely out of (human) control in a record-shattering fire season.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s been true for seemingly endless weeks now with no end in sight. (And, by the way, elsewhere in the northern hemisphere,\u00a0Siberia<\/a>\u00a0is having its own possibly record fire season.) If you didn\u2019t notice any of this, though, I have a possible explanation. Perhaps the vast clouds of smoke from those fires that recently gave the\u00a0skies<\/a>\u00a0of Chicago and Detroit,\u00a0New York<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Washington, D.C.<\/a>, the worst air quality on the planet\u00a0blurred<\/a>\u00a0your vision.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Forest fires in Canada in early July. Photo: Reuters.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Anyway, if you were to look back, say, a decade or two ago, I have no doubt you would be struck by how few commentators even faintly imagined the planet we\u2019re living on at this very moment \u2014 and not, as predicted, 2033 or 2043 or 2053, if ever.<\/p>\n

Few imagined that the oceans would\u00a0heat<\/a>\u00a0so quickly; that Texas and parts of the southern U.S. would be experiencing the sorts of\u00a0fever-dream temperatures<\/a>\u00a0this summer that once might, at worst, have been associated with northern India; that Europe would, in recent years, have recorded\u00a0heat and drought<\/a>\u00a0of a sort not seen in half a millennium; that China would break\u00a0heat<\/a>, fire, and\u00a0flood<\/a>\u00a0records, while Antarctica\u2019s sea ice hit\u00a0record lows<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
The New York skyline covered by smoke on June 7. Photo: Angela Weiss\/AFP.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Last season, when fires fiercely scorched northern Canada, who would have predicted that this year\u00a0far more acreage<\/a>\u00a0would burn nationwide long before the fire season was faintly near an end, sending\u00a0yet more carbon<\/a>\u00a0into the atmosphere to make future seasons even worse?\u00a0Oh, and just recently, the planet experienced its\u00a0hottest day ever<\/a>, in all of human history \u2014 or at least during the last 125,000 years. But count on one thing: it won\u2019t be the hottest day ever for long.\u00a0(Oh, wait!\u00a0The very next day, July 4th, proved in true patriotic fashion to be\u00a0even hotter<\/a>\u00a0and the following day\u00a0tied it<\/a>\u00a0for the record with, by the way, 57 million Americans under an\u00a0extreme heat watch<\/a>!) In the weeks to come, we\u00a0may even pass<\/a>\u00a0the 1.5\u00b0C temperature limit set just eight years ago as part of the Paris climate agreement.\u00a0And the saddest thing of all is that I could go on and on\u2026 and yes, on.<\/p>\n

Hey, I don\u2019t blame you if you\u2019re shocked. Honestly, who knew? I didn\u2019t and I suspect I was typical. Early in this century, I certainly grasped something of the possible grim future reality of climate change, but I didn\u2019t personally expect to live through it in any major way.\u00a0Though I already imagined it as a potential nightmare for future life on this planet \u2014 even possibly the nightmare of all times \u2014 the emphasis was on that \u201cfuture.\u201d I imagined my children (or possibly, though they didn\u2019t exist yet, my grandchildren) having to face such a potential horror, but not me, not in a major way in my own lifetime and in that inability to truly grasp what was coming I was\u00a0in the company<\/a>\u00a0of many climate scientists.<\/p>\n

And yet I now find myself, like you, like all of us, experiencing the idea of future global warming being transformed before my very eyes into a climate emergency of the first order.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
A Chinook helicopter operates over a forest fire in Greece. Photo: EFE\/KOSTAS TSIRONIS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nuking Planet Earth<\/strong><\/p>\n

Still, despite all the climate surprises in store for me and my generation, there were certain things that we already knew.\u00a0For instance, just to change the subject for a moment \u2014 and I think you\u2019ll see why soon enough \u2014 who today doesn\u2019t know that, in the midst of World War II, scientists working for the American government invented (and yes, that word works as well for what they did as for Edison and the telephone) atomic weaponry \u2014 that is, a way to destroy not just two Japanese cities to end World War II in the Pacific but, as it turned out, humanity itself, lock, stock and barrel!<\/p>\n

If you don\u2019t believe me, just check out what a relatively moderate atomic war on this planet might mean in terms of what\u2019s come to be known as \u201cnuclear winter<\/a>.\u201d In the wake of such a conflict, it\u2019s expected that\u00a0billions of us<\/a>\u00a0would all too literally starve to death.\u00a0(And as with climate change, count on one thing: the reality is likely to be worse than the predictions.)<\/p>\n

Admittedly, from the beginning, the idea of such weaponry made at least a few of the scientists who created it, not to speak of the president of the United States, anxious. As President Harry Truman\u00a0scrawled in his diary<\/a>: \u201cWe have discovered the most terrible bomb in the history of the world. It may be the fire destruction prophesied in the Euphrates Valley Era, after Noah and his fabulous Ark.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of the leading atomic scientists, J. Robert Oppenheimer, later recalled the experience this way:<\/p>\n

\u201cWe knew the world would not be the same. A few people laughed, a few people cried. Most people were silent. I remembered the line from the Hindu scripture, the Bhagavad Gita; Vishnu is trying to persuade the Prince that he should do his duty, and to impress him, takes on his multi-armed form and says, \u2018Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.\u2019 I suppose we all thought that, one way or another.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Still, when two atomic bombs took out Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who could have imagined what the fallout of every sort from such weaponry, if enough of them were used in some future war, could potentially do to humanity (and much of the rest of life on this planet as well)?\u00a0And once the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, who could have imagined that, in 2023, a Russian leader named Vladimir Putin, would rule over a country with\u00a0more nuclear weapons<\/a>\u00a0than any other on the planet and would once again be threatening to use what are now called \u201ctactical nuclear weapons\u201d (even though many of them are\u00a0far more powerful<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>than the two that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki) in \u2014 yes! \u2014 Europe (okay, officially, Ukraine) to save himself from the hellish war he launched?<\/p>\n

Or for that matter, who in 1991 could have guessed that, more than three decades later, the U.S. and China would be locked in what has come to be known as a \u201cnew cold war\u201d with the issue of the island of Taiwan at its heart and Americans gaining an ever more\u00a0cold-war-style mentality<\/a>?\u00a0In that context, who would have guessed that, in 2023, China would be rushing to\u00a0massively upgrade<\/a>\u00a0its nuclear arsenal, while, in the coming decades (if they were to come, of course), the U.S. was planning to invest another\u00a0$2 trillion<\/a>\u00a0in the so-called modernization (a concept that doesn\u2019t go very well with the potential ultimate destruction of Planet Earth) of its own vast arsenal.\u00a0Or who could have guessed that, by 2023,\u00a0nine countries<\/a>\u00a0would be nuclear-armed, including India and Pakistan (gulp!), Israel, and \u2014 yikes! \u2014 North Korea.<\/p>\n

Admittedly, since August 9, 1945, though many nuclear weapons have been \u201ctested,\u201d most recently by the\u00a0North Koreans<\/a>, none have yet been used in war.\u00a0Still, don\u2019t faintly think it\u2019s beyond the bounds of possibility, starting in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Firefighting helicopters refill water to extinguish a forest fire in the Lagonisi area of Attica, Greece. Photo: EFE\/ORESTIS PANAGIOTOU.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Another Kind of Fallout<\/strong><\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the tricky thing. While some of the atomic scientists who helped create the first nuclear weapons quickly grasped that they would have the potential to destroy humanity, none of them imagined that humanity had already invented a means to do so all too \u201cpeacefully\u201d by burning fossil fuels. None of them knew that putting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere might, in the end, fry the planet in something like slow motion rather than in an atomic instant.\u00a0In other words, humanity had, however unknowingly as part of the\u00a0industrial revolution<\/a>, created another sort of \u201cweaponry\u201d that could again \u2014 not in a brief set of warring moments but over endless decades \u2014 do this planet in.\u00a0That \u201cbomb\u201d couldn\u2019t, in a sense, have been more peaceful.<\/p>\n

Think of it this way: humanity had \u2014 once knowingly and once without realizing it \u2014 created systems with the sort of devastating fallout that could, in the end, do us all in and that represents a unique accomplishment of sorts.\u00a0Of course, had more of us been paying attention, we would have realized this far sooner when it came to climate change.\u00a0After all, in 1965, a science advisory committee provided President Lyndon Johnson with a\u00a0report on the phenomenon<\/a>\u00a0that predicted what the carbonization of the atmosphere might do to this planet early in the next century with remarkable accuracy.\u00a0So it wasn\u2019t that we weren\u2019t (or shouldn\u2019t have been) warned.\u00a0Johnson himself, of course, was so wrapped up in a disastrous war in Vietnam that he (and his advisers) seem to have paid no attention whatsoever.<\/p>\n

The other crew who knew all too much about the heating of this planet early were the guys who, in the previous century, ran the giant fossil-fuel companies.\u00a0From the 1970s on,\u00a0Exxon\u2019s scientists<\/a>, for instance, kept that company\u2019s executives all too up to date on the future fallout from the burning of the fossil fuels they were making their fortunes off of and those CEOs\u00a0often responded<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 surprise! surprise! \u2014 remarkably decisively by ignoring the news, denying it, or even supporting organizations deeply involved in climate-denialism.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
A man looks at fields burned during a fire in Velestino, Greece. Photo: EFE\/IKONOMOU VASSILIS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ground Zeros<\/strong><\/p>\n

Give us \u2014 that is, humanity \u2014 credit.\u00a0No other species could possibly have discovered two different ways to destroy itself, not to speak of most of the other creatures on Planet Earth.\u00a0And in 2023, living in an ever more extreme country on an ever more extreme planet at a moment when both of those ways of ultimate devastation are once again distinctly in play, we shouldn\u2019t underestimate who we are.\u00a0In fact, the question of whether there is a third way is now up for grabs.<\/p>\n

In other words, whatever you do, don\u2019t sell us short! \u00a0In the end (and I use that phrase advisedly), we may prove even more remarkable than we imagined and the fallout from the human brain almost beyond conception. In other words, don\u2019t for a second think that humanity is restricted to just two versions of end-time. After all, as in 1945 with the atomic scientists, so today, some of the scientific figures who created artificial intelligence (AI) are beginning to\u00a0warn us<\/a>\u00a0that it might ultimately (in every sense of the term) do us in.<\/p>\n

Among them is the man known as \u201cthe godfather of AI,\u201d Geoffrey Hinton, who quit his job at Google to express his fears about where we might indeed be heading, artificially speaking. \u201cThe idea that this stuff could actually get smarter than people,\u201d he\u00a0said<\/a>, \u201ca few people believed that, but most people thought it was way off. And I thought it was way off. I thought it was 30 to 50 years or even longer away. Obviously, I no longer think that.\u201d Now, he\u00a0fears<\/a>\u00a0not just killer robots beyond human control but \u201cthe risk of super intelligent AI taking over control from people\u2026It\u2019s a threat for the Chinese and for the Americans and for the Europeans, just like a global nuclear war was.\u201d<\/p>\n

And keep in mind that we\u2019re just in the earliest moments of AI\u2019s development. Who knows, as Michael Klare\u00a0recently warned us<\/a>, what future global militaries run by \u201crobot generals\u201d with potential access to our nuclear arsenals could do to us.<\/p>\n

The \u201cfallout\u201d from AI is still hard to begin to assess, even as militaries around the globe double their efforts to adapt it for uses of all sorts. And keep in mind, lest we underestimate humanity\u2019s remarkably inventive powers yet again, that while AI might prove to be the third way we\u2019ve created to potentially do ourselves in, even it might not be the last, not given who we are.<\/p>\n

Whether another nuclear weapon is ever used or not (don\u2019t do it Vlad!), in the heat of this record-breaking summer, this planet and everything on it are already suffering more and faster than just about anyone expected from one version of humanity\u2019s fallout.<\/p>\n

There was a phrase used with the atomic bombs that took out Hiroshima and Nagasaki and reused after September 11, 2001, for the site in New York where al-Qaeda hijackers took down the World Trade Center: \u201cGround Zero.\u201d\u00a0 Increasingly, with the never-ending burning of fossil fuels, Ground Zero is no longer a single city of any sort, but this planet itself and, whether we\u2019ve already found a third way to destroy ourselves (and so much else) or not, there is something awesomely ominous about our urge to destroy so much with our multiplying versions of fallout.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

* This article was originally published in TomDispatch.com<\/a>. Its publication in OnCuba has been expressly authorized by the author.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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