{"id":318788,"date":"2025-02-26T18:37:50","date_gmt":"2025-02-26T23:37:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=318788"},"modified":"2025-02-26T18:37:50","modified_gmt":"2025-02-26T23:37:50","slug":"rice-in-cuba-sine-die","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/economy\/rice-in-cuba-sine-die\/","title":{"rendered":"Rice in Cuba, sine die"},"content":{"rendered":"

On the blackboard, the \u201cno\u201d that accompanies the rice box is barely visible. It is an undeserved discretion. It should be in the foreground, like the bad news it is for the great majority of people who have this cereal as their base of culinary operations.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI plan to buy a small sack for Monday,\u201d announces the clerk at this small agricultural market in one of the southern neighborhoods of Havana. The promise is an attempt to \u201ccompensate\u201d for the customers\u2019 frustration.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHow much are you going to sell it for?\u201d asks a user who desperately asks about the product. It\u2019s Sunday, it\u2019s almost noon, and he\u2019s trying to look for something to make lunch at home, where his elderly parents are waiting for him \u201cand a 17-year-old nephew who eats like a savage.\u201d So far he has \u201ca bunch of burro bananas\u201d and a package of sausages worth 600 pesos.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAt 280 or 300,\u201d the clerk answers. \u201cThat\u2019s why I\u2019m just going to buy a small sack. They sell me a pound for 250, more or less. If not, the numbers won\u2019t add up, buddy,\u201d he apologizes and he shields himself behind the \u201cpoor\u201d profit margin he would obtain. Less than 20% for each pound.<\/span><\/p>\n

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On\u00eds rice, a high-quality product from Mexico, is sold for around 800 pesos. Photo: AMD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Grocers\u2019 math\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

A margin of 20% per pound could be quite a haul in other circumstances; but, given the prevailing volatility, it\u2019s not much. Just 14 cents at the informal exchange rate. About 3,000 pesos of profit for the sack (freight not included), which is equivalent to about 9 USD or a carton of 30 eggs.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the formation of the CPI \u2014 Consumer Price Index \u2014 in Cuba, some links may be exotic to the classical ones.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the supply side, the origin of the product should be taken into account, which in many cases tends to be opaque or downright black.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the case of rice, it could come from a state warehouse or a harvester in Pinar del R\u00edo or Granma, two of the main rice producers on the island.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are risk premiums for the origin of the former, which makes the sack cheaper for the buyer. Moving from illegality forces its holders to look for hurried sales and, therefore, at a lower price.<\/span><\/p>\n

In April 2023, the price for state sales of the cereal was established for the entire country at 72 pesos per pound. Today it is 160 pesos, more than double, while in the informal market, it climbed from 120 pesos per pound to 300 in February 2025. In just two years, the grain is making strides, while salaries \u2015 some \u2015 are barely growing in small steps.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the first half of 2024, the average salary in state enterprises reached approximately 4,856 pesos, which represents an increase of 15.1% compared to the previous year, against a <\/span>close to 25% state market inflation<\/b><\/a>, according to an official report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Imported rice at 800 pesos per kilogram in MSMEs in the Plaza-Centro Habana border area. Two pounds of repackaged black beans at 700 pesos. Photo: AMD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

MSME circuit<\/b><\/p>\n

Just a few meters from the stand, a private grocery store operates in parallel. It is open, but there is no one buying. The one-kilogram package of Mexican rice sells for 820 pesos. It is the only option, but it is out of the reach of most consumers.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cYes, it is annoying, but if things get difficult, someone will surely buy it,\u201d ventures the seller, while swinging a plastic bottle with water that serves to scare away flies.<\/span><\/p>\n

In all the MSMEs visited by <\/span>OnCuba<\/b>, five in total, and spread across an inter-municipal geography, imported packages \u2014 from Mexico or Colombia \u2014 of one kilo of rice fluctuated around 800 pesos.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDon\u2019t look for it cheaper, you\u2019re going to waste your time,\u201d the employee of one of the grocery stores on the border between the municipalities of Plaza and Centro Habana warned a customer.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2023, the average salary in Cuba was 4,648 pesos per month, according to the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). Thus, a kilo of the cereal, traditionally a key piece of the puzzle \u2014 always elementary \u2014 of the basic Cuban diet, represents 17% of the average monthly salary.<\/span><\/p>\n

The year-on-year inflation in state commerce remains sky-high but has been progressively de-escalating. At the end of 2024, the indicator stood at 24.88%, which represents a slowdown compared to the 31.3% recorded at the end of 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Quote on Wednesday, February 19, 2025, at a private grocery store in Lawton. Photo: AMD<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Austericide<\/em>?<\/b><\/p>\n

The real cause of such a decline is not an improvement in the economy, but a brutal contraction of public spending \u2014 an austericide<\/em> (counterproductive austerity) in economic jargon \u2014 which works as a bilge pump for the enormous fiscal deficit, one of the black beasts of the island\u2019s economy. It is estimated that even today it captures between 10% and 12% of GDP.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to <\/span>Cubadebate<\/span><\/i>, in 2024, cuts in public spending \u2014 which amounted to 32 billion pesos \u2014 converged with an \u201cover-compliance\u201d in revenues, above 25 billion pesos, through taxation and, above all, fines to the private sector.<\/span><\/p>\n

In just eight weeks in the summer of 2024, fines were close to 350 million pesos, according to data provided by the government.<\/span><\/p>\n

For Minister of Finance and Prices Vladimir Regueiro, in December <\/span>there was encouraging news<\/b><\/a>. \u201cThe deficit structure is shifting to capital expenditures (investments), which, logically, have future income.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The official outlook for 2025 contains inflation projections that vary between 20% and 30%, which still places it in the range of galloping inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Locally harvested rice, due to its small quantity, was priced at 160 pesos per pound at a Havana fair. Photo: AMD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Fairs<\/b><\/p>\n

Last Sunday, an agricultural fair was held a couple of blocks from an MSME.<\/span><\/p>\n

Organized by the Provincial Delegation of Agriculture of Havana, these itinerant markets sell at less prohibitive prices than private ones \u2014 perhaps between 10% and 30% \u2014 but there are complaints from citizens that this is not always the case.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There were reports that in John Lennon Park in Vedado, low-quality local rice was sold for 240 pesos per pound, with the addition that it had to be purchased as part of a combo with a bag of beans, which raised the total cost to 1,400 pesos.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, on the same day, at the fair on General Lee Avenue in the Santos Su\u00e1rez neighborhood, the price of rice was fair: 160 pesos per pound, five times less than in the MSME import circuit.<\/span><\/p>\n

There was only one problem: there were four sacks and 5 pounds per capita for an expectant crowd that exceeded one hundred.<\/span><\/p>\n

After several altercations, scuffles, and protests, the police had to intervene to impose order on the line. \u201cThey finished like water,\u201d said an angry customer referring to the sacks, showing her empty bag.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The anxiety of the buyers in the face of the low supply of rice can be felt in the air at the fair. Photo: AMD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Delays<\/b><\/p>\n

Like other basic products, delays in the delivery of rationed rice are accumulating for months.<\/span><\/p>\n

This month, February 2025, 2 pounds \u2014 of a total of 5 \u2014 corresponding to December 2024 <\/span>are being distributed<\/b><\/a>, although there are provinces where the cereal debts go back further.<\/span><\/p>\n

In April 2024, at the <\/span>Mesa Redonda<\/span><\/i> TV program, Minister of Domestic Trade Betsy D\u00edaz specified that monthly demand for rice exceeds 34,000 tons to distribute 7 pounds per capita (5 on the ration book and 2 extra).<\/span><\/p>\n

For his part, President D\u00edaz-Canel, in the same program, said that the country must ensure, each month, more than 230 million dollars destined to the purchase of food for the population. Given the delays, it is evident that the amount is not available.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Barely visible on the board, the absence of the sought-after food. Photo: AMD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Falling production and a new social contract<\/b><\/p>\n

At the same time, the country is facing a decline in rice production. In 1985, Cuba produced 524,000 tons of grain. By 2023, the figure dropped to 27,000 tons: just 5.32% of the production of four decades ago.<\/span><\/p>\n

Difficulties in accessing fertilizers, the machinery\u2019s absence or obsolescence, limited hydraulic resources, and the fuel shortage, among other ills, have formed a perfect storm to ruin the rice economy within a centralized model that is now trying to stimulate rice harvesting in small plots under Vietnamese advice.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to official statistics, in the last six years, rice production in Cuba has decreased by 90%, which has forced it to agree to imports from Vietnam, Brazil, and Uruguay.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rice is the most important cereal in the global South: it is the staple food for more than half of the world\u2019s population. Cuba is among the nations with a high consumption of the grain, with almost 70 kg per capita per year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the so-called basic food basket, which for decades was a redistributive mechanism that provided coherence to the social contract, is another of the State\u2019s obligations that has already become unbearable to sustain.<\/span><\/p>\n

The transition to a model where the market and rent-seeking maximization would have the last word seems to be imposed, hand in hand with dollarization (no longer a traveling companion), to the same extent that the State has been canceling, given its lack of liquidity and readjustment of priorities, old welfare loyalties that at one time earned it social consensus.<\/span><\/p>\n