{"id":320146,"date":"2025-03-24T18:38:26","date_gmt":"2025-03-24T22:38:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=320146"},"modified":"2025-03-24T18:38:26","modified_gmt":"2025-03-24T22:38:26","slug":"of-distortions-and-development","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/opinion\/columns\/counterbalance\/of-distortions-and-development\/","title":{"rendered":"Of distortions and development"},"content":{"rendered":"

We are in the middle of the third month of 2025. Everything seems to indicate that we will not be able to head towards a path of positive growth this year. Reaching a rate that would allow us to escape the red ink in which the national economy has been mired for the past three years seems far away.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is paradoxical, but being a tropical country, we have always depended on winter for almost all of our crops, from sugarcane to tourists. From potatoes, organic or not, to lettuce, onions, garlic, and tomatoes, which, by the way, have dropped slightly in price.<\/span><\/p>\n

The avocados and mangoes we will eat in the spring and summer also depend on winter, because their flowering is determined by the temperatures and winds of March. Our economy continues to be highly seasonal, and therefore these initial months are crucial for the annual result.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although it is relatively early to compare results with targets, I believe it is worth doing so wherever possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to the minister of economy\u2019s report in December, a GDP growth of 1% was forecast for 2025, supported \u201cmainly by projections for the recovery of tourism and revenue from the main exportable items.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This revenue plan is based on achieving exports of goods worth $2.867.9 billion. Nickel plus cobalt, lead and zinc concentrate, cigars and rum should be the largest exporters.<\/span><\/p>\n

The best news comes from tobacco, where exports reached more than $800 million this year \u2014although not all of it goes to our country, given that there is a joint venture that keeps a portion of those revenues.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nickel prices have shown <\/span>some stability<\/span><\/a> in these first three months of the year, with an upward surge in March to $16,600\/ton, which appears to remain stable until the end of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n

The estimated price for the revenue plan is not public. Based on the above, the decisive factor will be domestic capacity to achieve planned production volumes, which, according to <\/span>Sherrit International\u2019s own report<\/span><\/a>, have been affected by power outages.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, cobalt prices have hovered around $25,000\/ton in these first three months, which appears <\/span>fairly stable for the entire year<\/span><\/a>. Once again, production restrictions may weigh more heavily, given the difficulties previously mentioned.<\/span><\/p>\n

The export of 30,000 tons of sugar will depend on the performance of the harvest. Fourteen sugar factories were planned for milling, but less than half had been incorporated by January. These eight mills, which were incorporated late, represent 75% of the planned production. The harvest will also face financing problems, as according to statements from an AZCUBA group official, <\/span>only 10% of the necessary financing is available<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

New York contract No. 11 shows <\/span>prices around 20 cents per pound<\/span><\/a>, or more than $400 per ton.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the facts and the fact that Trump will do everything in his power to hit us where it will do the most damage, we are insisting on tourism. The facts of these two months show is that:<\/span><\/p>\n