{"id":323644,"date":"2025-05-31T18:38:59","date_gmt":"2025-05-31T22:38:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=323644"},"modified":"2025-05-31T18:48:50","modified_gmt":"2025-05-31T22:48:50","slug":"who-are-cubas-main-economic-partners","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/who-are-cubas-main-economic-partners\/","title":{"rendered":"Who are Cuba\u2019s main economic partners?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Measuring the relative importance of Cuba\u2019s bilateral economic relations, if we intend to do so with scientific precision, is an impossible mission. Essential data are lacking or rather, such information certainly exists, but it is treated as a state secret, mainly due to the policy of economic strangulation pursued by successive U.S. governments for more than sixty years.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is the case, for example, with foreign investment in Cuba, for which no figures are publicly reported on its annual flows and cumulative amounts.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, regarding the <\/span>value of exported services<\/span><\/a>, Cuba\u2019s main source of foreign currency earnings for many years, the <\/span>National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI)<\/span><\/a> only offers global data, without a breakdown by country.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, while thanks to the <\/span>Cuban Statistical Yearbook<\/span><\/a> we know that in 2023 Cuba exported services (with <\/span>medical services as the main item<\/span><\/a>) worth <\/span>USD 6.827 billion<\/span><\/a> (more than quadrupling the <\/span>USD 1.583 billion<\/span><\/a> obtained through merchandise exports), it is not possible to specify which countries are the main recipients of these services or their respective economic values.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nor is there accurate, reliable, and distributed information by country regarding the sending of remittances to Cuba, one of its main sources of foreign currency income and a vital resource for the survival and sustenance of many individuals and families. We will return to these issues later in the corresponding section.<\/span><\/p>\n

Faced with so many significant information gaps, those of us interested in assessing the relative importance of Cuba\u2019s bilateral economic relations have no choice but to move within the realm of the possible and, relying on sometimes incomplete and always imperfect data, at least attempt to approximate this knowledge.<\/span><\/p>\n

To this end, I have designed an <\/span>auxiliary<\/span><\/i> (and as simple as possible) statistical method to compile a ranking of Cuba\u2019s bilateral economic relations, according to their respective relative or comparative weights. This method can be updated periodically based on the availability of new data on the underlying variables.<\/span><\/p>\n

From the outset, I emphasize the <\/span>auxiliary<\/span><\/i> nature of this quantitative tool, given that it can in no way replace subsequent, more in-depth, and eminently qualitative analyses, which will ultimately allow for a comprehensive and definitive assessment of the matter.<\/span><\/p>\n

Description of the method<\/b><\/h3>\n

The method presented here is based on the statistical analysis of the behavior of four highly relevant variables to measure the importance of Cuba\u2019s economic relationship with each country, namely:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Cuban emigrants residing in the country<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Exports of Cuban goods to that country<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. Imports of goods from that country to Cuba<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Visitors to Cuba from that country<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The ranking obtained will be the result of the arithmetic average of the grading achieved by each country on the four variables considered. These gradings will range from 0 to 1.<\/span><\/p>\n

    For each variable, the country with the highest value will receive a grading of 1, while the grading for all other countries will be determined by the rule of three or, in other words, by dividing the country\u2019s value by the highest value. This will determine the relative weight of each country in that variable.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Below, I will describe the ranking process. In this case, although this is the \u201csnapshot\u201d taken at the end of May 2025, based on the most recent data available, it should be kept in mind that there is always a statistical lag, and therefore, these data refer to previous years, between 2020 and 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

    I will explain this specifically when analyzing each variable separately, before presenting the resulting multivariate ranking.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Cuban emigration<\/b><\/h3>\n

    The economic importance of emigration is obvious.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Remittances are one of the main sources of foreign currency income for Cuba, although, as most of them travel through informal channels, precise figures on their annual value are not available. Estimates for 2023 range from <\/span>less than USD 1 billion<\/span><\/a> to <\/span>USD 2.458 billion<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    In any case, in a context of extreme worsening of the national economic crisis, these flows (both in cash and in kind) are becoming increasingly crucial for the sustenance of many individuals and entire families.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Also, <\/span>as an authorized Cuban economist has pointed out<\/span><\/a>, they play a key role as working capital for the private sector.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Given the absence of official data on remittances, the inclusion of Cuban emigration as one of the four variables in the statistical tool presented here allows us to take into account (albeit only indirectly or implicitly) this increasingly necessary injection of resources into the hard-hit Cuban economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Furthermore, during 2024, <\/span>more than 294,000 members of the Cuban community abroad traveled to Cuba<\/span><\/a>, with all the positive economic impacts that these visits entail.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Of the four variables considered, emigration is the most problematic when compiling the corresponding database. This is because there is no single statistical source.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Neither the ONEI nor any other Cuban institution regularly publishes estimates on Cuban emigration broken down by destination country. Therefore, it is necessary to rely on information from the respective national institutions that report on the number of Cuban migrants in each country.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Fortunately, in the two main destinations for Cuban emigration, the United States and Spain, which together account for 87% of our migrants, their respective statistical authorities regularly publish data on the Cuban-born population.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In the United States, this information is provided by the <\/span>United States Census Bureau<\/span><\/a>, and the most recent estimate corresponds to 2023. In Spain, it is reported by its <\/span>National Institute of Statistics<\/span><\/a> and is already updated through last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

    However, for all other countries, the most recent data available are <\/span>estimates for 2020<\/span><\/a>, based on data from the <\/span>United Nations Population Division<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The following table reflects the top ten destinations for Cuban emigrants, according to the most recent data available, and the corresponding gradings for the ranking, based on the procedure described above.<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    Merchandise exports<\/b><\/h3>\n

    The export of goods is one of the main sources of foreign currency earnings for the Cuban economy and, according to <\/span>figures reported by the ONEI<\/span><\/a>, reached a value of USD 1.583 billion in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The following table reflects the top ten destinations for Cuban merchandise exports and the corresponding gradings for the ranking. Canada, China and Spain are, by far, the main markets for Cuban products.<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    Merchandise imports<\/b><\/h3>\n

    Historically, the Cuban economy has relied heavily on imports to function. According to the most recent figures reported by the ONEI, in 2023 imports accounted for 85% of Cuba\u2019s total trade in goods with the rest of the world.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    The following table reflects the top ten origins of merchandise imports and the corresponding gradings used to compile the ranking. Venezuela, Spain and China are the main sellers to the Cuban market, and are the only ones with exports exceeding USD 1 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    Visitors to Cuba<\/b><\/h3>\n

    Despite the crisis facing <\/span>tourism in Cuba<\/span><\/a>, its authorities persist in maintaining this sector as one of the country\u2019s main economic activities.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The following table shows the distribution of the main source markets for visitors to Cuba in 2024, according to <\/span>figures reported by the ONEI<\/span><\/a>. Canada is by far the largest source.<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    The U.S. source market, in addition to the more than 142,000 visitors of that nationality, would be credited with accounting for a vast majority of the nearly 295,000 members of the Cuban community living abroad who visited Cuba last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

    However, the <\/span>figures reported<\/span><\/a> by the Ministry of the Interior\u2019s Department of Identification, Immigration and Aliens, through the ONEI, do not offer a breakdown that would allow for this statistical analysis.<\/span><\/p>\n

    However, it is important to note that the proposed method already reflects the economic importance of the Cuban community living in the United States in the travel sector, albeit indirectly, by including the emigration variable.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The multivariate ranking (updated as of May 30, 2025)<\/b><\/h3>\n

    By calculating the arithmetic mean of the gradings obtained in each of the four variables considered, the following general multivariate ranking of Cuba\u2019s bilateral economic relations is obtained, according to their respective relative weights, always taking into account the information limitations mentioned at the beginning of the text. The 20 relations with the highest gradings are reflected here, in descending order (1).<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    Main limitation of ranking<\/b><\/h3>\n

    As I pointed out at the beginning of this article, the main limitation of the ranking is the lack of official data on some variables that would be particularly relevant to measuring, as accurately as possible, the relative weight of each of Cuba\u2019s bilateral relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In the case of foreign direct investment, countries such as Canada, Spain and Vietnam (the latter recognized by the Cuban authorities as the <\/span>main Asian investor in Cuba<\/span><\/a>) would achieve a higher grading than they already have.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    Regarding services exports, Cuba\u2019s main source of foreign exchange earnings (<\/span>USD 6.827 billion<\/span><\/a> in 2023 and which reached <\/span>USD 10.24 billion<\/span><\/a> in 2019), it would be especially useful to have this information broken down by country.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In this case, the vast majority of <\/span>CARICOM member countries<\/span><\/a>; Latin American countries such as <\/span>Mexico<\/span><\/a>\u00a0and <\/span>Venezuela<\/span><\/a>; African countries such as <\/span>Angola<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Namibia<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>South Africa<\/span><\/a>; Arab countries such as <\/span>Saudi Arabia<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Algeria<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Qatar<\/span><\/a>; or a European country like <\/span>Italy<\/span><\/a>, which receive a significant number of Cuban medical collaborators, would surely also achieve higher gradings.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In this regard, one could consider using the figures for collaborators in each country as an indirect way to approximate the distribution of services export revenues, but such a procedure would pose complexities that are very difficult to resolve, given that the information on the subject is very fragmented and dispersed, and official data are not systematically published.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    Some conclusions<\/b><\/h3>\n

    The resulting ranking reveals several observations and interpretations that could spark debate and encourage deeper and more comprehensive research, in order to include qualitative elements that should always complement any statistical tool such as the one proposed here, which is inevitably incomplete and subject to improvement.<\/span><\/p>\n