
{"id":327508,"date":"2025-08-25T20:30:15","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T00:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=327508"},"modified":"2025-08-25T20:30:15","modified_gmt":"2025-08-26T00:30:15","slug":"your-majesty-the-right-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/opinion\/columns\/counterbalance\/your-majesty-the-right-time\/","title":{"rendered":"Your majesty \u201cthe right time\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An MP, in the first session of our National Assembly, when speaking, asked about the Law on Enterprises and the response I heard was that it had been assessed that it wasn\u2019t yet approved, or that we weren\u2019t yet at the right time for its approval.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Had he been among us, my friend Goyo would have looked at me sideways and said, very quietly but smilingly: \u201cHey bro, how does anyone know when the time is right?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Without a doubt, doing the right things at the right time is a good guarantee of success; whether it\u2019s forming and coaching a baseball team or crossing the street.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Managing a country\u2019s economy is even more important, because in the end, a baseball game can be lost and, if we cross the street the wrong way, we pay for it ourselves, or in a hospital or in some small container.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The same is not true when it comes to a country\u2019s economic strategy and policy, because it is then that the destinies of everyone are decided and the dreams of many can turn into eternal nightmares, making disillusionment a daily way of life.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The data from the first half of 2025 report released by the Ministry of Economy to the Assembly leave no doubt about the overall poor performance of our economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even though we have the good news of the containment of the fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation\u2019s increase, both positive results, their effects on the purchasing power of citizens\u2019 income and on the dynamics of the Cuban productive system are practically nil.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Copia-de-Copia-de-English-OC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-327512\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Copia-de-Copia-de-English-OC.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1080\" height=\"1350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Copia-de-Copia-de-English-OC.png 1080w, https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Copia-de-Copia-de-English-OC-240x300.png 240w, https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Copia-de-Copia-de-English-OC-819x1024.png 819w, https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Copia-de-Copia-de-English-OC-768x960.png 768w, https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Copia-de-Copia-de-English-OC-750x938.png 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of the seven prioritized objectives announced by the Minister of Economy in December 2024, few have been achieved in this first half of 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The first of these <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014 continuing to advance the implementation of the Macroeconomic Stabilization Program, with actions that contribute to the gradual reduction of existing imbalances<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014 will remain in the shadows as long as these positive signs related to the fiscal deficit and inflation fail to alleviate the growing needs of the majority of the country\u2019s population.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The exchange rate in the so-called informal currency market remains unfavorable: a few days ago, the 400 pesos per dollar barrier was broken, a very clear sign that the real causes of the Cuban peso\u2019s depreciation remain very strong.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increasing export revenues<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the second of these objectives, has its worst enemy in the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.onei.gob.cu\/sites\/default\/files\/publicaciones\/2025-07\/arribo-de-viajeros.-visitantes-internacionales-junio-2025.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">poor performance of tourism<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (81% of travelers and 75% of visitors compared to the same period in 2024) and in the results of this sugar harvest, where the production levels achieved take us back to 1817.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other sectors, including medical services, also show no significant recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increasing national production<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is the third prioritized objective; some productions have increased, but the impact of this increase on supply and prices has been barely perceptible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Securing resources for defense and internal order<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is another objective. In the absence of information on this matter, it is possible to imagine that this priority has been met, among other reasons because the Revolutionary Armed Forces\u2019 business system generates its own resources, allowing it to not depend on the results of the national economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Gradually recovering the national power system (SEN)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">; the fifth of these objectives shows no signs of achieving significant results despite the efforts made, which include redirecting investment toward the sector and the construction and startup of photovoltaic parks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today, the main focus is on generation and its limitations, but the infrastructure associated with transmission is also in a critical state. Without electricity, it will be very difficult to achieve a significant change in the dynamics of our economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The sixth objective, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">addressing social policy priorities \u2014 health and education \u2014 with a special focus on individuals, families, households and communities in vulnerable situations<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, seems a daunting task given the continued deterioration in households\u2019 purchasing power, the increase in poverty and marginalization and the dynamics of prices for basic goods and services.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The effort pales in comparison to the accumulated deterioration. The announced pension increase, much needed, will barely cover the purchase of a fraction of a carton of eggs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, the objective of <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">prioritizing and timely incorporating the contributions of science, technology and innovation for economic recovery<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014 much needed for a country suffering from a permanent lack of resources of all kinds \u2014 is challenged by a productive system where the main actor \u2014 the socialist state enterprise \u2014 does not have sufficient incentives and degrees of freedom to do so in a dynamic and sustained manner.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I draw attention to the fact that science, technology and innovation require financial resources and state investment, because our state-owned business system, the great engine of this battered economy, is exhausted, undercapitalized, tied down by ministerial bureaucracy and relatively far removed from the \u201cworld\u2019s cutting-edge technology.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Foreign investment can be a great help, but it has taken more than four years to introduce changes in the law, regulations and procedures to create a \u201cfavorable business environment.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In a few weeks, we will be approaching the third quarter of 2025. It is already known that in 2024 the negative performance was -1.1%, although this time many of us were surprised by the figure, given the combination of factors that were present throughout 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is no official information on GDP growth in the first half of 2025, as if hiding it from the public would allow us to change the reality of that performance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/repositorio.cepal.org\/server\/api\/core\/bitstreams\/add76980-6b1b-468d-aec1-9c4a72e3d7a0\/content\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECLAC has estimated<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that Cuba\u2019s GDP will decline again in 2025, this time by -1.5%, a performance worse than that of 2024 and surpassed only in Latin America by Haiti (-2.3%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Minister of Economy, in his <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mep.gob.cu\/es\/noticia\/2025-un-primer-semestre-duro-un-segundo-semestre-desafiante\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">speech to the National Assembly<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, rightly described this second half of the year as challenging, as it seems impossible to expect significant positive changes in the conditions he himself defined, which prevent a positive economic response:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">High foreign debt.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lack of access to development credit.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Foreign currency deficit.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lack of energy and fuel.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Shortage of raw materials and inputs.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Low utilization of industrial capacities.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Insufficient internal mechanisms and lack of discipline.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">International inflation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Geopolitical conflicts.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Undoubtedly, it is possible to add some other \u201cfactors\u201d to this list:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Slowness of decision-making (what\u2019s the status of the Law on Enterprises?)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lack of consistency in approved policies (do we finally need a dynamic and complementary non-state sector, or not?)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Excessive bureaucracy and bureaucrats (will the state apparatus be reduced, or not? When and by how much?)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lack of sufficient incentives for joining the formal workforce, whether state or non-state (69.1% of the unemployed are concentrated at the pre-university, mid-level technical and university levels).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Absence of a monetary market that provides certainty to economic actors.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It does not appear that any of these internal factors will undergo any favorable changes in the next four months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Uncertainty will continue to predominate in the international context, while the certainty that the blockade and the aggressive policies of the Trump administration could further increase the negative impact on the national economy and our people.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Both are factors about which we can do little or nothing, beyond utilizing the most important characteristic that has allowed homo sapiens to remain at the top of the animal chain: their capacity for adaptation and their ability to seize opportunities, even if they are meager.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The tasks <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/cubaminrex.cu\/es\/presenta-primer-ministro-informe-sobre-el-cumplimiento-e-impacto-de-las-medidas-del-programa-de\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">defined for this second half of the year<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> represent a major challenge not only economically but also politically.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of them is crucial: the creation of an exchange market and the adoption of an exchange rate that makes economic relations between all actors in the economy transparent \u2014 that is, the state, families and businesses. How it is implemented will largely determine whether our country can break the trend of continued decline year after year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I confess I don\u2019t know if this is the \u201cright time\u201d; I don\u2019t know if any of the artificial intelligence algorithms that have been created can give us a clue as to when the right time is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Almost always, the determination of whether it is or isn\u2019t happens later; perhaps that\u2019s one of the reasons for the delays we fail to understand, but the longer we delay, the higher the economic, social and political cost will be. That\u2019s something we\u2019ve already been able to verify. The facts are there.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A country\u2019s economic strategy and policy affect the destinies of everyone: they can turn the dreams of many people into eternal nightmares and make disillusionment a daily way of life.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3304,"featured_media":327511,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13075],"tags":[14816,19256],"ppma_author":[33885],"class_list":["post-327508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-counterbalance","tag-cuban-economy","tag-featured"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Your majesty \u201cthe right time\u201d | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A country\u2019s economic 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