{"id":332309,"date":"2025-12-18T13:20:09","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T18:20:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=332309"},"modified":"2025-12-18T13:23:27","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T18:23:27","slug":"2025-what-remains-what-was-left-whats-in-store-for-the-cuban-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/2025-what-remains-what-was-left-whats-in-store-for-the-cuban-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"2025: What remains, what was left, what\u2019s in store for the Cuban economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">We are concluding 2025. Throughout this tense and difficult year,\u00a0there have been\u00a0many\u00a0important events,\u00a0accompanied\u00a0also by analyses, reports, debates and publications that, from academia, try to contribute to a better understanding and to propose alternatives. The\u00a0latter\u00a0seek\u00a0to contribute to overcoming the\u00a0difficult situation\u00a0in which the Cuban economy and society find themselves, even though they are often not taken into consideration.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In light of\u00a0this time and the successive analyses that have been presented, it seems useful to ask ourselves, very briefly, what\u00a0remains\u00a0and what has arrived in the Cuban economy after these last twelve months.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">What\u00a0remains:<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"0\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A recession that shows no signs of abating, with a GDP that will be more than 12 points below that obtained in 2019, six years later.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Notable macroeconomic imbalances with some quantitative, but not qualitative, relief.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Insufficient food\u00a0production;\u00a0some items grew, others\u00a0decreased\u00a0and the food industry is far below (between 30 and 45%) the plan set for this year that is ending. The strong dependence on imports in this sector\u00a0remains.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"3\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Deep sectoral crises (energy, water, sanitation, infrastructure, health, etc.)<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"4\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Greater participation in retail sales by the emerging private sector (with a greater relative supply\u00a0and also\u00a0higher prices).<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"5\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Low efficiency and profitability of the state sector,\u00a0despite\u00a0the\u00a02,741 state-owned enterprises&#8230;.\u00a0The 308\u00a0enterprises\u00a0operating\u00a0at a loss last year\u00a0were reduced\u00a0to 264 in September of this year. More than 31%\u00a0maintain\u00a0moderate to low profitability, often explained more by price increases than by increases in physical sales. From January to May of this year, only 29\u00a0enterprises, 1.1% of the total, obtained considerable profits, exceeding 500 million\u00a0pesos (CUP). Average employment in that period decreased by 6.3% and labor productivity showed a slight increase of 1.5%.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"6\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Stagnation of exports (estimated at a 7% decrease compared to the previous year), which is explained by the recession in the production of goods and services, due to internal factors of lack of efficiency, productivity and energy, combined with strong external constraints (primarily, the increased U.S.\u00a0sanctions\u00a0and the state of the international economy).<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"7\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Monetary market with diverse exchange rates and without the capacity for regulation by the central bank, which leaves room for the impact of parallel exchange rates with a notable speculative\u00a0component, a situation that disrupts the entire operation of the economy in its various sectors.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"8\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Banking sector with serious operational problems, which\u00a0remains\u00a0a significant obstacle to the process of\u00a0bancarization.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"9\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Fiscal policy with a regressive impact and a significant level of tax evasion, which, among other factors, does not effectively\u00a0utilize\u00a0a fundamental document such as the mandatory issuance of invoices. The future and\u00a0possible introduction\u00a0of VAT should take these considerations into account;\u00a0I\u00a0addressed this specific point extensively\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/cuba\/economia\/del-programa-de-gobierno-para-corregir-distorsiones-y-reimpulsar-la-economia-notas-sobre-el-impuesto-al-valor-agregado-iva\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">in a recently published article<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"10\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Investment policy that does not adequately respond to the country\u2019s priorities, despite its recent modification in favor of the energy sector, but which is still insufficient and lacks the necessary increases for the agricultural sector.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"11\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Demographic crisis that\u00a0weighs on\u00a0the reduction and aging of the population, low birth\u00a0rate\u00a0and significant emigration. The latter primarily involves young people, many of whom are highly skilled. All of this poses a serious limitation to the economy and development.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"12\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Notable erosion of confidence in institutions.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"13\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Social crisis, with increased poverty, which current social policies are\u00a0failing to compensate\u00a0for.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure style=\"width: 1140px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/apagones-cuba.jpg\" alt=\"A street without lights during a power outage in Havana. Photo: EFE\/Ernesto\u00a0Mastrascusa.\u00a0\" width=\"1140\" height=\"760\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A street without lights during a power outage in Havana. Photo: EFE\/Ernesto Mastrascusa.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">What\u2019s\u00a0new:<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"14\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A change in the investment structure responding to the energy emergency: investment in the sector has increased to 10% due not only to maintenance efforts on thermoelectric plants that are in very poor condition, but also to the widespread installation of solar panels, which is important, although for the moment they only provide about 7% of the available energy (the energy sector has 43% of its\u00a0power\u00a0generation capacity affected).<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"15\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">For this reason, investment in tourism has decreased from more than 30% to\u00a0nearly 20%, but investment in agriculture\u00a0remains\u00a0stuck at around 3%.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"16\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">There is a relative reduction in the budget deficit. The latest available figure placed it at 6% of GDP, still high, but notably lower compared to the levels it recently reached, of around 18%, which is due not only to better fiscal management, but also to budget items that went unspent: about 14 billion\u00a0CUP.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"17\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This deficit reduction is important in relation to the relative recovery of macroeconomic balances and inflation control, but\u00a0strictly speaking, reducing\u00a0the budget deficit is not an\u00a0end in itself. One of the great challenges of the economy is to reduce the deficit while simultaneously neutralizing or reducing its potential recessionary effect, which is only possible if it is accompanied by supply-side measures. That is: effective incentives for production and exports, articulated in the correct sequence, and this means profound transformations in the structure of the productive sector and in the economic model.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"18\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">There is a decrease in the level of year-on-year inflation, but its qualitative effect on the population and the economy continues to be\u00a0very strong\u00a0and risky. The anchoring of wages and pensions to\u00a0contain\u00a0demand-side pressure on prices shifts the cost of adjustment onto broad sectors of the population, with strong social effects such as increased poverty.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"19\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Partial renegotiation of\u00a0foreign\u00a0debt, which has\u00a0basically allowed\u00a0for the rescheduling of payments and\u00a0possible swap\u00a0operations with Spain, but this is no guarantee of the opening of new credits and financing lines.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"20\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">New and positive measures for foreign investment, recently announced at the Havana\u00a0Trade\u00a0Fair. However, again, the potential positive effect of this on investment would\u00a0likely be\u00a0negated without other simultaneous and sequential changes in the economic model.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"21\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Expansion of the so-called partial dollarization of the economy, still insufficiently explained in its scope,\u00a0limits\u00a0and\u00a0objectives. Dollarization is always a high-risk path, especially if it is not clearly integrated into a process of systemic and profound transformations that allow for\u00a0an exit strategy\u00a0within a reasonable\u00a0timeframe.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"22\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Greater presence of Cuba in important emerging spaces such as the\u00a0BRICS, but\u00a0based on\u00a0an economy in crisis and with low efficiency, which limits the opportunities that\u00a0open up\u00a0there. It cannot be forgotten that economic relations based fundamentally on political agreements are\u00a0a thing of the past.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"23\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Very strong\u00a0impact of\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/tag\/huracan-melissa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Hurricane\u00a0Melissa<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u202fon the eastern provinces, which places\u00a0additional\u00a0pressure on the economy and society.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"24\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Strong impact of several vector-borne epidemics that are out of control, with great social and economic damage and an overwhelmed healthcare system.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"25\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Increased tension in the global geopolitical crisis, whose conflict has dangerously approached the country\u2019s borders, with the strong U.S.\u00a0naval deployment in the Caribbean and unjustified operations of maximum aggression, which\u00a0seem to be\u00a0part of that country\u2019s new\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/mundo\/ee-uu\/trump-revive-la-doctrina-monroe-el-corolario-trump-redefine-la-politica-de-eeuu-hacia-america-latina\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Homeland Security Strategy<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. According to the text of this document, the Western Hemisphere becomes a central focus of the U.S.\u00a0strategy, reinforcing the claim of an uncontested hegemony in this area. The risks for Cuba are obvious and must be taken seriously.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"2\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"26\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Presentation and call for debate on a\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/programa_de_gobierno_para_corregir_distorsiones_y_reimpulsar_la_economia_2025.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Government Program to correct distortions and revitalize the economy<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u00a0This is undoubtedly\u00a0an important step, as it aims to address the key issues that need to be resolved in the economy to put it on the path to overcoming the structural crisis that affects it. Since it is subject to debate, it is\u00a0presumably still\u00a0a draft.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Now\u00a0then, the question is whether, as we know it, this Program\u00a0is in a position to\u00a0achieve its objective.\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/ecos\/sobre-el-recien-presentado-programa-de-gobierno-para-corregir-distorsiones-y-reimpulsar-la-economia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Our\u00a0answer\u00a0is no<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, because, although it has positive elements, it is incomplete, disjointed, confusing and deficient in fundamental aspects.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Cuban economy today\u00a0remains\u00a0essentially based\u00a0(despite the significant changes it has undergone) on a model of bureaucratic planning and low efficiency, blocked, with strong external restrictions, lack of financing and without dynamic sectors that can overcome the resistance to takeoff.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Tourism, which has concentrated the vast majority of investment in recent years, close to and even more than 30%, with a reduction to around 20% this 2025, due to the resources demanded by the very strong energy crisis, remains in contraction and with a hotel occupancy rate during 2025 of less than 20%. This is a sector that, in addition to its problems in service quality, is\u00a0very sensitive\u00a0to external\u00a0sanctions.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The sugar sector is a mere shadow of what it once was. Harvests do not reach 200,000 tons. Nickel and cobalt are affected by international prices and the closure of markets. Tobacco has grown, responding to some innovative policies and new incentives in the sector. Biopharmaceutical products continue to be developed, but with difficulties in accessing international markets, and medical services abroad continue, although under\u00a0strong pressure\u00a0from this U.S.\u00a0administration.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 1140px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fumigacion-cuba-2.jpg\" alt=\"The\u00a0\u201cshortage of resources\u201d\u00a0resulting from the economic crisis limits Cuba\u2019s ability to combat its\u00a0\u201cdouble epidemic\u201d\u00a0of chikungunya and dengue, warned Mario Cruz, the representative in Cuba of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), in an interview with EFE. Photo: EFE\/Ernesto\u00a0Mastrascusa.\" width=\"1140\" height=\"1709\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The \u201cshortage of resources\u201d resulting from the economic crisis limits Cuba\u2019s ability to combat its \u201cdouble epidemic\u201d of chikungunya and dengue, warned Mario Cruz, the representative in Cuba of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), in an interview with EFE. Photo: EFE\/Ernesto Mastrascusa.<span style=\"color: #333333; font-size: 15px;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Summary and conclusion<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The contraction of the economy explains the impossibility of increasing the production of goods and services, which depresses consumption and exports. Macroeconomic imbalances and the uncontrolled exchange market limit the effectiveness of economic policies.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The lack of a flexible, properly regulated, operational and sustainable foreign exchange market prevents the coordinated functioning of the productive system across all its sectors and economic actors; this is not a minor\u00a0issue,\u00a0it is essential.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The most complicated problem is the loss of the economy\u2019s growth capacity, without dynamic sectors, combined with the presence of a bureaucratic and inefficient planning model. In addition, there is the persistence of clear urgent needs such as food, energy and healthcare deficits, the inability to pay debts, etc., which demand immediate and priority responses, but which at the same time\u00a0do\u00a0not prevent a solution connected to deep structural reforms. The parts must be integrated with the whole, even when it is necessary to\u00a0establish\u00a0priorities. Sacrificing the comprehensiveness of the process, in terms of timing and the\u00a0appropriate sequence, would be suicidal.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The only possible solution is a comprehensive and profound reform, and this document now under discussion does not\u00a0contain\u00a0it.\u00a0First and foremost, a reform that addresses the recovery of macroeconomic balances, attends to urgent\u00a0needs\u00a0and connects all of this with deeper structural changes.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The main ones\u00a0are:\u00a0the reform of state-owned enterprises, not so that they cease to be public, but so that they cease to be inefficient, accompanied by better coordination with and\u00a0a boost\u00a0for the private and cooperative sectors, and the profound transformation of the agricultural production subsystem. None of these are clearly defined in the Government Program.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A program for the comprehensive transformation of the economy must precisely\u00a0identify\u00a0the economic policy\u00a0objectives\u00a0and the tools to achieve them. It is not a matter of listing aspirations without adequately defining how to achieve them, establishing stages, areas of action, correct sequences, well-founded indicators (not general ones), alternative sources of financing and, above all, a strategic vision of the type of economy and society that is aspired to. The architecture and strategic direction of the transformation are essential.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">There is considerable similarity between this new document and the\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/lineamientos_vi-congreso-pcc-cuba.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Guidelines<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u202fthat\u00a0were\u00a0approved 14 years ago, when it is necessary and imperative to go much further.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Expressions such as\u00a0\u201cupdate,\u201d\u00a0\u201cimprove\u201d\u00a0and\u00a0\u201cpromote\u201d\u00a0are\u00a0frequently\u00a0overused. We must ask ourselves: update what, improve what, promote\u00a0what\u00a0and when?\u00a0The point is to change in a comprehensive and profound way. This is where the idea of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u200b\u200b<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201dchanging\u00a0everything that needs to be changed, and with great urgency\u201d\u00a0comes into play.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">________________________________________<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Author\u2019s\u00a0note: All statistics are based on reports from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) and reports from the Center for Cuban Economic Studies at the University of Havana.<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">*This text was originally published on the author\u2019s Facebook profile. It is reproduced with his express permission.<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expressions like \u201cupdate,\u201d \u201cimprove\u201d and \u201cboost\u201d are frequently overused. We must ask ourselves: update what, improve what, boost what and when? The point is to change in a comprehensive and profound way. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3840,"featured_media":332313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13902,13903],"tags":[14816,19256],"ppma_author":[34072],"class_list":["post-332309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cuba","category-economy","tag-cuban-economy","tag-featured"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2025: What remains, what was left, what\u2019s in store for the Cuban economy | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It seems useful to ask ourselves, very briefly, what remains and what has arrived in the Cuban economy after these last twelve months.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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