{"id":334041,"date":"2026-01-22T13:03:39","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T18:03:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=334041"},"modified":"2026-02-11T11:49:36","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T16:49:36","slug":"venezuela-today-scenarios-and-urgent-challenges-for-the-cuban-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/venezuela-today-scenarios-and-urgent-challenges-for-the-cuban-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Venezuela today: scenarios and urgent challenges for the Cuban economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The situation in Venezuela has become the determining factor for the Cuban economy in the short term. Relations with the South American country have been key to Cuba\u2019s economic stability, especially in the energy sector. So much so that, despite having reduced its historical shipments in recent years, the Venezuelan supply\u00a0remains\u00a0crucial.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Despite the terrible power outages that affect homes and businesses daily for several hours, Venezuelan oil, combined with domestic production and other external sources of fuel, still guarantees the minimum vitality of the economy and society.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">I recently spoke with a friend about this situation, and in a\u00a0\u201czero fuel\u201d\u00a0scenario he told me something true: the last five years will seem like paradise compared to what awaits us. This is not the time to be alarmist or predict catastrophes, but the circumstances require extreme pragmatism.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Cuba:\u00a0internal and external sources of crude oil<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Cuba consumes around 120,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), according to calculations based on\u00a0an\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.granma.cu\/cuba\/2025-03-23\/podra-recuperarse-totalmente-el-sistema-electrico-nacional-i-23-03-2025-21-03-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">interview<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u202fwith the Minister of Energy and Mines published in the\u00a0<\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Granma<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0newspaper in March 2025. Of these:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">33% is from domestic production<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0(40,000 bpd). After 13 years of decreases in domestic crude oil production, the state-owned company\u00a0Cubapetr\u00f3leo\u00a0(CUPET)\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=SK8bBGPlZ7E\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">exceeded<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0its production target last year, covering one-third of the country\u2019s demand.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">67% comes from imports<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0(80,000 bpd), which makes Cuba an economy highly dependent on fossil fuels produced in other parts\u00a0of the world. The main suppliers are Venezuela, Mexico, Russia and, to a lesser extent, Angola,\u00a0Algeria\u00a0or Brazil.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In October 2000, Cuba and Venezuela signed a\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cubadebate.cu\/especiales\/2010\/11\/07\/convenio-integral-de-cooperacion-venezuela-cuba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. The island obtained very favorable terms to receive 53,000 bpd in exchange for medical,\u00a0technical\u00a0and professional services.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">At its peak, between 2009 and 2012, Venezuela sent up to 100,000 barrels of crude oil daily. Starting in 2013, coinciding with the deterioration of the economic situation in the South American country, the supply began to decrease progressively.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In 2025, Venezuela sent between 27,000 and 35,000 bpd to Cuba, according to various sources. Although the decrease is significant, this amount still\u00a0represents\u00a022-29% of the demand that the Cuban economy needs to function\u00a0\u201cnormally.\u201d\u00a0At the end of the year, the U.S.\u00a0blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers interrupted the flows to Cuba.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">What could happen?<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">So far, the Chavista government\u00a0remains\u00a0in power, has guaranteed administrative continuity and is showing internal unity, even with massive popular demonstrations. However, it faces undeniable pressure from the United States.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">We cannot lose sight of the fact that Venezuela is being threatened by the most powerful nation on the planet. As if they were dominoes, the U.S.\u00a0president has declared his intention to cut off all\u00a0\u201cmoney and oil\u201d\u00a0coming from Venezuela to bring down Cuba.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">At such a critical moment, what scenarios could we face?<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"3\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"0\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Improbable scenario: everything returns to\u00a0\u201cnormal.\u201d<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0With the lowest probability of all, the United States would lift the oil blockade on Venezuela and allow\u00a0\u2014\u00a0or\u00a0turn a blind eye to\u00a0\u2014\u00a0shipments to Cuba.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"3\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Probable scenario 1<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">: partial and progressive reductions. Even if the Bolivarian government were willing to\u00a0maintain\u00a0its energy commitments with Cuba, it would face persecution and pressure from Washington. This hostility could manifest itself in a\u00a0combination of more military threats, continued seizure of Venezuelan fuel tankers and diplomatic pressure.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"3\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Probable scenario 2<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">: total cutoff. In the worst-case scenario for the Cuban economy, we would lose our primary supplier of fossil fuels, with even more devastating consequences for the Cuban economy.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">None of the three scenarios\u00a0is\u00a0ideal. We are talking about an economy that, for years, has been surviving on a quantity of fuel below the minimum it needs to\u00a0operate\u00a0normally. Therefore, the critical aspect of the situation is that Cuba cannot afford to do without a single drop more of oil.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">And what about other suppliers? Although\u00a0not impossible, it does not seem\u00a0likely that\u00a0Mexico,\u00a0Russia\u00a0and other countries that currently supply fossil fuels to Cuba will compensate for the partial or total loss from Venezuela.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Mexican president\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/jornadabc.com.mx\/general\/mexico\/no-hay-cambios-en-envio-de-petroleo-a-cuba-sheinbaum\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">confirmed<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u202fthat her country will\u00a0maintain\u00a0current flows in the present circumstances, but without further increases. For his part,\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/mundo\/europa\/putin-siempre-hemos-brindado-y-seguimos-brindando-asistencia-y-apoyo-a-nuestros-amigos-cubanos\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Putin\u2019s\u00a0reaction<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0came last week at a meeting with ambassadors where he said that\u00a0\u201c\u2026we have always provided and continue to provide assistance to our Cuban friends,\u201d\u00a0but this is more of a diplomatic statement than a confirmation of an increase in Russian aid.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Is there room to negotiate with new suppliers? The Cuban government is\u00a0probably evaluating\u00a0options, but the problem lies in the shortage of\u00a0foreign currency.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Cuba does not have enough foreign currency income to cover not only the needs for electricity generation, but also for basic food,\u00a0medicine\u00a0or public transportation. Beyond the U.S.\u00a0embargo, which effectively closes markets and scares away investors, the country is unable to generate dollars.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">We all hope for the best for our country. However, as Jos\u00e9 Mart\u00ed wrote in September 1893:\u00a0\u201cThe whole art of salvation lies in foresight.\u201d\u00a0It is entirely rational\u00a0\u2014\u00a0and responsible\u00a0\u2014\u00a0to plan for the worst-case scenario. The government has\u00a0the official\u00a0figures on the precise scope of each of the projections, which in all cases\u00a0increase\u00a0the complexity of the current situation.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Exposed vulnerabilities of the Cuban economy<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Undoubtedly, the current crisis in Venezuela and its consequences leave us with clear lessons about how the Cuban economy functions in the energy sector and its relations with the rest of the world:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"4\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"0\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The dependence on fossil fuels is extremely high<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. Cuba depends on oil and other fossil fuels for 91% of its\u00a0power\u00a0generation, which\u00a0demonstrates\u00a0the critical need for high and sustained flows.\u00a0Requiring\u00a0the import of two-thirds of national demand, energy relations with other countries are strategic.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"4\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Crude oil imports are\u00a0relatively diversified<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. Unlike\u00a0the almost\u00a0total\u00a0dependence on the Soviet Union before its disintegration, oil demand relies on several international suppliers. A partial or total cutoff from Venezuela does not mean the cessation of all flows from abroad, although it does affect the most important one. The problem is that this\u00a0\u201crelative diversification\u201d\u00a0does not meet the current minimum needs of society and the economy. The solution would involve: 1) increasing domestic crude oil production, 2) increasing shipments from current partners, 3) seeking new partners or 4) advancing the energy transition. All four solutions require significant amounts of foreign currency that are not available.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"4\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The solar panel strategy is correct, but still insufficient<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. Investment in renewable energy sources is a strategic bet.\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.onei.gob.cu\/sites\/default\/files\/publicaciones\/2026-01\/indicadores-seleccionados-noviembre-2025.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">37% of investments<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0in the state sector are dedicated to the supply of electricity,\u00a0gas\u00a0and water, resulting in the\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.unionelectrica.cu\/nota-informativa\/?fbclid=IwY2xjawPYdOpleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETEzd3ZhRFpwWTIzVXk3d2NBc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHtjhsjDL8N0L_oWpL_VaeFQPPKWI5Hd9gaFjdWYw9W3cocu8TK-xu_CCObsO_aem_hsZBWFgQcpBg5-hacvww4g\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">installation\u00a0of\u00a037\u00a0solar parks<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0in one year. It is a commendable effort, but the reality is that power outages during 2025 were worse: not because the panels are ineffective, but because what they generate does not compensate for the growing deficit of fossil fuels. Renewable energies cover 9% of the current energy matrix. Cuba plans to increase that proportion to 24% in four years, so dependence on crude oil will be a structural problem for a couple of decades more.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"4\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"3\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The sluggish reform has made us more vulnerable<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. The postponement of structural changes in state-owned enterprises, productivity, acceleration of foreign investment, the exchange market and better rules for the private sector has led to constant\u00a0deterioration of economic activity, making us more vulnerable to external shocks.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-leveltext=\"\u2022\" data-font=\"Verdana\" data-listid=\"4\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Verdana&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\u2022&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" data-aria-posinset=\"4\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The U.S.\u00a0economic war is at its peak<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. As in the worst moment in the\u00a01990s, when the Helms-Burton Act was signed, now from Washington there is a deliberate and public intention to strangle the Cuban economy and provoke the expected regime change.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In conclusion, the crisis in Venezuela affects us directly. The combination of high dependence on imported fossil fuels, severe currency restrictions and\u00a0an\u00a0economic reform that has been postponed for more than fifteen years has minimized our room for\u00a0maneuver. Relying solely on a change in the international context\u00a0\u2014\u00a0whether in Washington or Caracas\u00a0\u2014\u00a0is not a sound strategy. The extraordinary urgency of the current situation demands extraordinary boldness.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"gtx-trans\" style=\"position: absolute; left: 350px; top: 2253.98px;\">\n<div class=\"gtx-trans-icon\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is there room to negotiate with new oil suppliers? The Cuban government is probably evaluating options, but the problem lies in the scarcity of foreign currency.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3134,"featured_media":334045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13902,13904],"tags":[14816],"ppma_author":[33546],"class_list":["post-334041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cuba","category-cuban-economy","tag-cuban-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Venezuela today: scenarios and urgent challenges for the Cuban economy | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The situation in Venezuela has become the determining factor for the Cuban economy in the short term.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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