{"id":336712,"date":"2026-04-01T11:31:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T15:31:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/?p=336712"},"modified":"2026-04-07T12:40:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T16:40:27","slug":"what-those-who-dont-want-reforms-in-cuba-actually-want","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oncubanews.com\/en\/cuba\/what-those-who-dont-want-reforms-in-cuba-actually-want\/","title":{"rendered":"What those who don\u2019t want \u201creforms\u201d in Cuba actually want"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cuban political debate lacks sufficient formal venues for expression; instead, it winds its way through channels that are sometimes highly convoluted and tainted\u00a0\u2014\u00a0such as social media or pamphlets of one political stripe or another. Moreover, it tends to be a high-risk sport for those who dare to voice uncomfortable ideas in public (regardless of their political\u00a0leaning).<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This month,\u00a0<\/span>OnCuba<\/span><\/b>\u00a0marks its 14th anniversary. Since its\u00a0inception, one of its core\u00a0objectives\u00a0has been precisely this: to provide information and\u00a0\u2014\u00a0drawing upon the diverse perspectives of our columnists and journalists\u00a0\u2014\u00a0to\u00a0attempt\u00a0to influence the trajectory of a process of economic and political reforms that has appeared irrevocable since 2007.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It was in that year that\u00a0<\/span>Ra\u00fal Castro\u00a0delivered a speech<\/span><\/a>\u00a0in Camag\u00fcey, in which he made it clear that\u00a0\u201cto have more, we must start by producing more\u00a0and doing so with a sense of rationality and efficiency,\u201d\u00a0and that\u00a0\u201cto achieve this objective, we will have to\u00a0<\/span>introduce whatever structural and conceptual changes prove necessary.<\/span><\/b>\u201d\u00a0This is the famous\u00a0\u201cglass of milk\u201d\u00a0speech\u00a0\u2014\u00a0a passage which, incidentally, was excised from the transcripts published\u00a0subsequently. Months later, he also acknowledged the\u00a0<\/span>\u201cexcess\u00a0of\u00a0prohibitions\u201d<\/span><\/a>\u00a0existing in Cuba.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That process\u00a0\u2014\u00a0initiated\u00a0around that time\u00a0\u2014\u00a0reached its culmination in 2011 with the\u00a0<\/span>Guidelines for Economic and Social Policy<\/span><\/a>. This was followed by the\u00a0<\/span>Conceptualization\u00a0of the\u00a0Economic and Social Model<\/span><\/a>\u00a0and, more recently, the\u00a0<\/span>National Development Plan through 2030<\/span><\/a>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In September 2010,\u00a0<\/span>journalist Jeffrey Goldberg recounted that when Fidel Castro<\/span><\/a>\u00a0was asked about Cuba\u2019s role as an\u00a0\u201cexporter of revolutions,\u201d\u00a0he replied:\u00a0<\/span>\u201cThe model doesn\u2019t even work for us anymore.\u201d<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ten years earlier\u00a0\u2014\u00a0on May 1st, speaking from the Plaza while still fully exercising the duties of his office\u00a0\u2014\u00a0he had planted this enduring\u00a0<\/span>phrase<\/span><\/a>:\u00a0\u201cRevolution is a sense of the historical moment; it is\u00a0<\/span>changing everything that must be changed<\/span><\/b>.\u201d\u00a0A kind of mantra that is invoked and betrayed with equal frequency.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A friend reminded me a few days ago of a speech given by\u00a0<\/span>Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel\u00a0in\u00a0July\u00a02020\u00a0upon the approval of yet another\u00a0plan<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2014\u00a0one of so many: the\u00a0\u201cSocio-Economic Strategy to Boost the Economy and Confront the Global Crisis Caused by COVID-19.\u201d\u00a0In it, he\u00a0stated:\u00a0\u201cThe worst risk [of implementation] would lie in\u00a0<\/span>failing to change, in failing to transform and in losing the trust and support of the people<\/span><\/b>.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For twenty years, we have been hearing talk of change from the corridors of power in Cuba. Yet, a growing segment\u00a0\u2014\u00a0perhaps already a majority\u00a0\u2014\u00a0of Cubans, both on and off the island,\u00a0<\/span>attribute the current crisis to the\u00a0government\u2019s\u00a0\u201cinertia,\u201d<\/span><\/b>\u00a0having allowed years to pass without adopting decisions that were recommended and agreed upon across multiple sectors\u00a0\u2014\u00a0and not just in the economy.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Squandering time, the people\u2019s will to endure and opportunities for regeneration\u00a0\u2014\u00a0in a lethal combination with the escalating U.S. sanctions against the island\u00a0\u2014\u00a0has brought us to this precipice.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In this context\u00a0\u2014\u00a0while people\u2019s lives deteriorate to critical levels, and the country\u2019s capacity to sustain its sovereignty simultaneously wanes\u00a0\u2014\u00a0those who claim to support that very power periodically take up arms to attack those who propose or demand\u00a0\u2014\u00a0depending on the tone\u00a0\u2014\u00a0changes to the island\u2019s economic and political model.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0\u201csuper-revolutionaries\u201d<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

I identify them as a sort of\u00a0\u201csuper-revolutionaries\u201d\u00a0\u2014\u00a0those who are more extreme in their views\u00a0\u2014\u00a0though it must be acknowledged that they have lost much of their visibility and impact in today\u2019s society, after having inflicted so much damage through baseless accusations and the quasi-police dossiers to which they had access. Life is gradually putting them in their place.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Today, more clearly than ever, they embody the sectarianism that was traditional\u00a0and\u00a0largely extinct\u00a0in other\u00a0times. And, just as back then, it is reasonable to assume that they are not lone wolves howling in the dead of night, but rather voices\u00a0emerging\u00a0from within the sectors of palatial\u00a0power. With all\u00a0that\u00a0this entails.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If a call for a change in the model\u00a0or\u00a0\u201creforms\u201d\u00a0(a word that has been anathematized)\u00a0is put forward by a group alternative or critical to the government, it is instantly labeled as liberal propaganda, as the promotion of capitalism\u00a0\u2014\u00a0specifically\u00a0\u201cdisaster capitalism\u201d\u00a0or the\u00a0\u201cshock doctrine,\u201d\u00a0annexationism, among other such\u00a0nasty comments.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet, at the same time, it is difficult to find within their statements concrete proposals for\u00a0\u201cchanging what needs to be changed.\u201d\u00a0That is why I have often asked myself:\u00a0<\/span>What, exactly, do those who oppose reforms in Cuba\u00a0actually want?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Photo:
Photo: EFE\/Ernesto Mastrascusa.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The\u00a0blockade, yes<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

Let us take their premises seriously, for some are true and deserve to be clearly articulated.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The blockade is not merely a contextual detail to be mentioned for the sake of appearing rigorous, only to be\u00a0subsequently\u00a0dismissed with a\u00a0\u201cbut.\u201d\u00a0It has been a dominant structural variable in the Cuban economy for over six decades\u00a0\u2014\u00a0though its most severe impact was unleashed in the 1990s, when Cuba found itself without allies and with an economy utterly dependent on Soviet oil. Once\u00a0again\u00a0oil.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Any analysis that relegates the blockade to mere background while elevating the\u00a0\u201cgovernment\u2019s erratic policies\u201d\u00a0to the status of primary cause is engaging in a political maneuver, not an analytical one. Acknowledging the reality of the blockade only when it serves one\u2019s purpose is not rigor; it is rhetoric.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That said, let us note that every plan and strategy devised from the beginning of Ra\u00fal Castro\u2019s presidency to the present day was conceived with the blockade in mind\u00a0\u2014\u00a0and, indeed, while explicitly denouncing it. In every instance, the focus remained fixed on a horizon of\u00a0possible transformation,\u00a0despite\u00a0the blockade; one might even argue that thanks\u00a0to it,\u00a0insofar as\u00a0it incentivized solutions that in a different context might never have been contemplated.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In this sense, constantly falling back on the argument that the U.S. blockade is the primary cause of the current crisis\u00a0\u2014\u00a0that it has stymied economic takeoff, particularly in the wake of the pandemic\u00a0\u2014\u00a0conveniently overlooks the fact that the objective was supposed to be, precisely, to overcome the crisis by rendering the blockade as irrelevant as possible to Cuban economic and social life.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This\u00a0objective\u00a0has gone largely\u00a0unfulfilled\u00a0and this line of reasoning has been consistently obscured.\u00a0As I wrote on one occasion ten years ago:\u00a0\u201c<\/span>The blockade is a unilateral policy, the solution to which is\u00a0bilateral<\/span><\/a>.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is also true that Cuba has already\u00a0demonstrated\u00a0its capacity to survive without massive external support\u00a0\u2014\u00a0at least for a time. The hardest years of the Special Period were devastating, yet the country managed to overcome them through reforms such as the decriminalization of the dollar\u00a0and the consequent establishment of a foreign exchange market,\u00a0the development of tourism, the granting of land in usufruct, the implementation of agricultural markets with free price formation and the promotion of foreign investment, among others. All of this occurred before Venezuelan oil entered the equation, and amidst an active blockade and heightened threats. (The Helms-Burton Act was signed in 1996.)<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Following a precipitous drop of over 30% in GDP between 1990 and 1993, the Cuban economy grew by 0.6% in 1994 and continued to expand in\u00a0subsequent\u00a0years: 2.5% in 1995 and 7.8% in 1996. To\u00a0attempt\u00a0to erase this chapter of history\u00a0in order to\u00a0construct a narrative of perpetual structural dependency is, effectively, to intentionally amputate one\u2019s memory. However, it must also be\u00a0stated\u00a0that we are no longer in the 1990s, and it is impossible to simply superimpose one era onto the other.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Photo:
Photo: EFE\/Ernesto Mastrascusa.\u00a0<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The\u00a0market, too<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

No one doubts that market-oriented reforms\u00a0\u2014\u00a0such as those promoted by the 2011 Guidelines themselves\u00a0\u2014\u00a0are not ideologically neutral. Nor\u00a0are they, per se, a source of equality, unless they are regulated by a State that actively exercises its redistributive functions.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Opening up\u00a0to the market\u00a0generally\u00a0benefits\u00a0those who start from a privileged position\u00a0\u2014\u00a0whether due to access to capital, foreign currency, commercial networks, insider\u00a0information\u00a0or\u00a0know-how.\u00a0Or\u00a0those who possess all of these advantages.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Cuba\u2019s most dynamic private sector today is not a dispersed, entrepreneurial middle class with a na\u00eff\u00a0style. Although I lack precise data, I venture to assert that it is a\u00a0relatively concentrated\u00a0group characterized by high barriers to entry. This fact must be acknowledged.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Opposition to the market constitutes one\u00a0more alternative\u00a0of\u00a0positioning strategy among many others. And it is healthy for\u00a0the\u00a0country to have intellectuals and politicians,\u00a0artists and influential figures\u00a0dedicated to\u00a0anticipating\u00a0and highlighting trends that exclude the majority from benefiting or that compromise the nation\u2019s security,\u00a0integrity\u00a0and sovereignty,\u00a0for instance through a hypothetical mass privatization of assets.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The reality, however, is that in Cuba, some of these\u00a0\u201csuper-revolutionaries\u201d\u00a0systematically choose to exonerate the\u00a0\u201cleaders\u201d\u00a0and target only those who hold no decision-making responsibilities, thereby allowing themselves to merely skim the surface of purely ideological\u00a0challenge.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sometimes these skirmishes amount to sheer vulgarity in Facebook posts, employing strings of adjectives, accusations, one-sided narratives,\u00a0conjectures\u00a0and sophisms of every stripe. At other times, they come wrapped in analytical language, complete with erudite references and bibliographies.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Photo:
Photo: EFE\/Ernesto Mastrascusa.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The question\u00a0remains: What do they want?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

Pointing out that\u00a0\u201cdisaster capitalism\u201d\u00a0operates\u00a0by exploiting crises does not answer the question of what Cuba is doing while the crisis unfolds.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Demonstrating that the emerging private sector has its own distinct interests does not resolve the structural energy crisis, nor does it erase\u00a0the fact that power outages were already unbearable for both the population and the economy long before January 3rd.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Recalling the\u00a0\u201cSpecial Period\u201d\u00a0of the 1990s as proof of Cuban resilience is both fair and necessary; however, that period also came at the cost of mass emigration, a decade of severe impoverishment and transformations that the Cuban government itself was compelled to implement\u00a0\u2014\u00a0reforms that, at the time, were similarly criticized as\u00a0\u201cconcessions to capitalism.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The stance that asserts,\u00a0\u201cnot like this, not for them, not under these conditions,\u201d\u00a0may be absolutely accurate in its diagnosis\u00a0and at the same time\u00a0absolutely insufficient as a response.\u00a0What, then, are the options?<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Waiting\u00a0for a shift in the geopolitical\u00a0context.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0This is the most passive of all approaches: waiting for the U.S. administration to change\u00a0\u2014\u00a0or at least to be weakened following the midterm elections in November\u00a0\u2014\u00a0or waiting for Venezuela to stabilize and resume its shipments, or for some other external ally to step in and assume the role of fuel supplier. It is not a far-fetched gamble, yet it either ignores or dismisses the\u00a0time\u00a0factor.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While waiting for a favorable geopolitical chessboard to take shape\u00a0\u2014\u00a0a scenario entirely beyond anyone\u2019s control\u00a0\u2014\u00a0the fabric of Cuban society continues to fray. Emigration,\u00a0which has become a veritable\u00a0drain,\u00a0shows no signs of\u00a0abating\u00a0and the\u00a0population\u2019s\u00a0material conditions continue to deteriorate in ways that may prove exceedingly difficult to reverse. Cuba cannot simply freeze reality while it waits for the world to shift in its favor. That is not going to happen.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Resistance\u00a0as\u00a0a\u00a0value in itself<\/span><\/b>. They seek to uphold the model,\u00a0come what may, because any concession to the market is the first step toward socialist dissolution\u00a0\u2014\u00a0as the Soviet experience\u00a0supposedly\u00a0demonstrated. Confusing\u00a0form with substance prevents one from distinguishing between reforms that preserve the public and those that destroy it.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Incidentally, many of those forms of public management\u00a0supposedly characteristic\u00a0of socialism have already been dismantled,\u00a0often without any public debate or collective decision-making. On the other hand, there is\u00a0the\u00a0massive problem of demanding resistance from those at the\u00a0bottom while accumulating privileges from the top. As I have\u00a0stated\u00a0on other occasions\u00a0\u2014\u00a0and continue to\u00a0maintain\u00a0\u2014\u00a0the only offer extended to the Cuban people cannot be the example of\u00a0Numantia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A third position\u00a0\u2014\u00a0were they to acknowledge it honestly\u00a0\u2014\u00a0would\u00a0actually be\u00a0plausible: it would entail\u00a0<\/span>admitting that they simply cannot find a structured alternative<\/span><\/b>. However, this would require open and honest dissent\u00a0from\u00a0the continuity-driven, static policies currently\u00a0maintained\u00a0by the government. It would also require placing on the table genuine doubts\u00a0regarding\u00a0which direction the compass should point, given that the proposed solutions are often perceived as being worse than the very problems they purport to solve.\u00a0This could\u00a0be occurring.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The problem is that saying\u00a0\u201cno to this\u201d\u00a0without adding\u00a0\u201cyes to that\u201d\u00a0does not constitute a political program; it is merely a stance. And in a crisis of this\u00a0magnitude\u00a0\u2014\u00a0such as the one Cuba is currently\u00a0experiencing, where everything is at stake\u00a0\u2014\u00a0mere stances neither feed nor heal anyone, nor do they deliver electricity to industries and homes. What is needed is action\u00a0and taking\u00a0risks.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Binarism\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

There is an\u00a0accusation that this\u00a0trend\u00a0levels against those who propose reforms: they claim that\u00a0others\u00a0engage in binary thinking\u00a0\u2014\u00a0that they reduce the entire debate to a choice between\u00a0\u201cchange or perish,\u201d\u00a0or\u00a0\u201creforms or bombs.\u201d\u00a0This accusation may be valid in many instances, but does not apply in every case. Some texts do indeed construct this dichotomy deliberately as a mechanism for political pressure. Others, however, do not. What an honest analyst requires is to trace the train of thought of an author or a publication, rather than fantasizing over select phrases taken out of context. That is the bare minimum expected of them.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is worth asking whether binarism manifests itself on only one side.\u00a0Because\u00a0the response\u00a0\u201ccapitalist reform or the integrity of the revolutionary project\u201d\u00a0is\u00a0also\u00a0binary.\u00a0It\u00a0carries the additional problem that the second term\u00a0\u2014\u00a0the integrity of the project\u00a0\u2014\u00a0describes something that Cuba has spent decades building, losing and rebuilding in ways that are not always publicly acknowledged. Let\u2019s be honest: how\u00a0much of the socialist remains in Cuban socialism? Furthermore, how much sovereignty do we have left?<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Cuba\u2019s economy today is not a classical socialist economy, but rather a fragmented one\u00a0\u2014\u00a0featuring a degraded state sector; an informal market that has long set real prices unchecked within an inflationary environment; and a private sector that is already established, already concentrates power and already makes decisions that impact society as a whole. And how! Just ask in any neighborhood where people buy their daily food.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Photo:\u00a0Otmaro\u00a0Rodr\u00edguez.\u00a0\"
Photo: Otmaro Rodr\u00edguez.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At the\u00a0risk of\u00a0making mistakes<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

What, then, do those who oppose reforms in Cuba actually want? Behind this lack of proposals may lie a fear that what is to come will be worse than what exists. The memory of transitions that ended in disaster lends credence to this fear; as does a deep mistrust of those who turn the crisis into a business opportunity. Such fear is understandable, yet it is insufficient to evade\u00a0the responsibility of\u00a0offering\u00a0a\u00a0project. Behind this absence, one typically finds\u00a0\u2014\u00a0above all\u00a0\u2014\u00a0political opportunism and intellectual rigidity.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Cuba cannot afford the luxury of a debate in which participants know precisely what they reject\u00a0\u2014\u00a0and reject intransigently\u00a0\u2014\u00a0and\u00a0remain unsure of what they ought to propose.\u00a0Especially when such negation emanates from sectors that continue to enjoy spaces of privilege, whether symbolic or material.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One cannot build a country upon negation. What is needed are solutions, political creativity,\u00a0the courage to call problems by their proper names\u00a0and\u00a0to act, even if it entails the risk of making mistakes. A risk which, for Cuba today, is hardly the greatest one of all.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As I have stated on other occasions \u2014 and continue to maintain \u2014 the only option offered to the Cuban people cannot be the example of Numantia. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3685,"featured_media":336717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13902],"tags":[19317,18919,35081],"ppma_author":[33674],"class_list":["post-336712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cuba","tag-cuba-economy","tag-cuban-government-politics","tag-reforms-in-cuba"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat those who don\u2019t want \u201creforms\u201d in Cuba actually want | OnCubaNews English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"That is why I have often asked myself:\u00a0What, exactly, do those who oppose reforms in Cuba\u00a0actually want?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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