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Raúl Morejón

Raúl Morejón

Florida and the end of the embargo

Many analysts are making projections and predictions about what Cuba’s future will be after the embargo is lifted; others are analyzing the impact on the United States—especially Florida—of a new market of 11 million people. A number of studies have been made on both those issues, but I will just analyze a few figures. Professor Jim Linch of the Florida State University Center for Economic Forecasting says that Cuba needs $500 million for investing in telecommunications; $500 million for road infrastructure; $575 million for aviation and airports; and $540 million for rail transport. At first glance, in a hypothetical scenario without the embargo and where U.S. banks would be willing to finance these investments, a clear advantage exists for companies that want to and can undertake such projects. Because of its geographical proximity, the state of Florida would logically account for most of this. All studies on the economic impact of lifting the embargo are based on hypotheses; it is very difficult to predict what would happen, because all signs seem to indicate that the embargo will be dismantled little by little. For its part, Cuba will have to adapt to these new conditions as well. To continue analyzing hypothetically...