The position of president of the Republic was reestablished in the Cuban political system by the Constitution approved in April 2019. Article 126 of the Constitution established a time limit for the occupant of that office of two consecutive five-year terms, with no possibility of serving again at a future date.
Unless an extraordinary political event or process occurs in Cuba during the next three years, the National Assembly of People’s Power (ANPP) must elect a new president in 2028, when Miguel Díaz-Canel’s second term ends that year.
The current Cuban head of state was elected President of the Councils of State and of Ministers on April 18, 2018, at the Constitutive Session of the 9th Legislature of the ANPP.
As a result of the new Constitution and the new Electoral Law mandated by it, on October 10 of the following year, Díaz-Canel was elected President of the Republic by the deputies for a four-year term, until the end of the 9th Legislature, instead of the five years that subsequent presidential terms normally require. He was reelected on April 19, 2023, during the constitutive session of the 10th Legislature.
The President of the Republic is Cuba’s head of state; however, the significance of his/her election in 2028 could transcend that of that office as such.
If a tradition were established based on Díaz-Canel’s political trajectory, the person elected could also become, at a later date, the next First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) during a period in which, by the natural law of life, the current survivors of the historic leadership of the 1959 Revolution will no longer be present.
The First Secretary of the PCC Central Committee is the highest office in the Cuban political system, given that Article 5 of the Constitution enshrines that organization as “the highest leading political force of society and the State.”
National Nominations Commission
The President of the Republic is elected from a single candidate previously proposed by the National Nominations Commission (which, in formal institutional terms, is the key body of the Cuban electoral system). Approval requires the affirmative vote of an absolute majority of the National Assembly (half plus one of its members).
According to the Cuban Electoral Law (Law No. 127 of July 13, 2019), the National Nominations Commission is composed of representatives of the Central Organization of Cuban Trade Workers, the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, the Federation of Cuban Women, the National Association of Small Farmers, the Federation of University Students and the Federation of Secondary School Students, appointed by the corresponding national leaderships of those organizations, which are currently led, respectively, by Ulises Guilarte de Nacimiento (member of the PCC Political Bureau), Gerardo Hernández Nordelo (member of the PCC Central Committee), Teresa Amarelle Boué (member of the PCC Political Bureau), Félix Duarte Ortega (member of the PCC Central Committee), Ricardo Rodríguez González and Laniel Gómez Martínez.
Considering this composition and the aforementioned Article 5 of the Constitution, it is evident that the PCC will always exercise a decisive influence on the decisions of the National Nominations Commission, although the Electoral Law establishes its functional independence from any other body.
Among the Commission’s functions is to prepare and submit to the ANPP the draft candidacy for the nomination and election of the President and Vice President of the Republic, composed of a single candidate for each position. According to the legislation, to form the candidacy, the Commission must request the deputies to personally submit their proposals in writing, without identifying the proponent. After this, the Commission prepares and submits the draft.
However, based on all the elements outlined above, the probability of the Commission presenting a draft candidacy that does not enjoy the approval of the country’s highest political leadership is practically zero. And, since there are single candidates for each position, the MPs’ role as electors is limited to deciding whether to ratify or reject the Commission’s proposal, rather than actually choosing or selecting among alternative or competing candidates.
The pool
In any case, the pool of individuals who could be considered to occupy the position of head of the Cuban state is very small, based on a set of requirements established in the Constitution and the relevant complementary legislation.
In addition to these legal requirements, the political background of the respective presidential candidates, especially their previous experience in high-ranking positions in the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), the Cuban state or government, must have decisive weight. All of this determines that the number of possible candidates is truly small.
Below, I will analyze both aspects, in order to identify the political figure who seems destined to succeed Díaz-Canel as President of the Republic in 2028, as well as to identify a group of alternative presidential candidates who, although in my opinion have much lower chances, are legally qualified and have a minimum political pedigree to eventually be nominated for the position.
Legal requirements
The first condition for being selected President of the Republic, established in Article 126 of the Constitution, is to have previously been elected as a deputy to the ANPP. Therefore, when considering the presidential candidates identified in this analysis, it must be assumed that they will retain their positions as deputies to the ANPP as a result of the 2028 national electoral process and at the time of the constitution of the future 11th Legislature.
Furthermore, according to Articles 126 and 127, four other requirements must be met, namely:
- Being in full enjoyment of civil and political rights.
- Being at least 35 years of age.
- Being up to 60 years of age (applicable when elected for a first term).
- Being a Cuban citizen by birth and holding no other citizenship.
Political career
Barring extraordinary events or processes, the next President of the Republic, in addition to being a deputy to the ANPP, must come from one of the figures currently holding the highest positions in the PCC (members of the Political Bureau and the Secretariat of its Central Committee, and some of the provincial First Secretaries), the State (Council of State) and the Government (Council of Ministers).
In my opinion, three elements or criteria influence this aspect, which would significantly favor the chances of any presidential candidate under consideration and could determine the decision of the National Nominations Commission regarding the deputy to be nominated. These elements are:
- Accumulated experience in positions and tasks of high responsibility in the different branches of the Cuban political system (PCC, State, and Government). And if the presidential candidate in question combines experience from all three branches, his or her chances would therefore increase significantly.
- Having served as First Secretary of the PCC in a province: The First Secretaries of the PCC in each province, in addition to being the highest political leaders, are the true heads of government in those territories (provincial governors, in practice, function as administrative managers subordinate to their party leaders). Therefore, this constitutes ideal political and government experience as preparation for accessing leadership positions in the state or government, even superior, in several respects, to that of leading a ministry.
- Having developed extensive international activity: Historically, Cuba’s economic, social and political development has depended tremendously on its foreign relations, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. A presidential candidate with extensive international experience will, in principle, always be preferable to one without it.
Most likely presidential candidate
Considering the above factors, Roberto Morales Ojeda, the current Secretary of Organization of the PCC Central Committee, a key position in the party structure, seems destined to become the next President of the Republic.
To begin with, being a member of the PCC Political Bureau could be a determining factor. Of the current 13 members of the highest party body, only he and Gladys Martínez Verdecia (First Secretary of the PCC Provincial Committee in Artemisa) would meet the legal age requirement.
On the other hand, when considering this requirement, it is worth keeping in mind that Morales Ojeda would be very close to the mark, provided the election process takes place before June 15, 2028, when he will turn 61. Cuban electoral legislation does not establish a specific date for the presidential election, but barring exceptional circumstances, it should take place in April 2028, at the end of Miguel Díaz-Canel’s five-year presidential term.
From the perspective of his political career, compared to other potential presidential candidates, Morales Ojeda has much more experience in high-ranking positions at a national level, combining state and government party positions.
The Cienfuegos politician has served, in chronological succession, as First Secretary of the PCC in the southern province (2006-2008), member of the Secretariat of the PCC Central Committee in charge of the Public Health sector (2008-2009), First Deputy Minister of Public Health (2009-2010), Minister of Public Health (2010-2018), Vice President of the Council of Ministers (2018) and Deputy Prime Minister (2018-2021), before assuming his current party position starting in 2021, following a clearly upward trajectory. Except for the Ministry of Public Health, the short duration of the various positions of responsibility he has held is notable.
He has also been a member of the PCC Central Committee since 2006 and its Political Bureau since 2016, as well as a deputy to the ANPP for the municipality of Cienfuegos since 2008. In 2019, he was awarded the status of Illustrious Son of Cienfuegos.
He also significantly outstrips other political figures legally eligible to lead the Cuban state in terms of participation in high-level official international activities, as head of the respective Cuban delegations, including visits to the United States, Brazil, Russia, China, Vietnam, Laos, Algeria, Japan, Pakistan, Singapur, South Africa, Iran and Equatorial Guinea, as well as participation in assemblies of the World Health Organization and the Pan American Health Organization.
More recently, Morales Ojeda’s regular participation in President Díaz-Canel’s activities, as an inseparable companion, appears to be part of an intensive preparation plan aimed at succeeding him in office.
Alternative presidential candidates
Politics is a high-risk activity anywhere in the world, and politicians can “fall from grace” overnight, for a variety of reasons. For this reason, although Morales Ojeda appears, by far, to be the presidential candidate with the greatest chance of succeeding Díaz-Canel as President of the Republic, it is always worth considering other political figures who, should any extraordinary change occur in the Cuban political landscape until 2028, would have a reasonable chance of ascending to the highest state office.
The following list is not intended to be exhaustive. I have included figures who, in addition to being legally qualified, currently hold or have held until recently the main responsibilities in the highest bodies of the PCC, the State and the Government. I have arranged them according to their seniority as deputies in the ANPP:
Born on October 10, 1970, in La Palma, Pinar del Río. First Secretary of the PCC Provincial Committee in Pinar del Río for nine years, until 2018. First Secretary of the PCC Provincial Committee in Artemisa since 2018. Member of the Political Bureau of the PCC Central Committee since 2021. Member of the PCC Central Committee since 2013. Deputy to the ANPP since 2008 for the municipality of Artemisa.
Born on March 8, 1974. First Secretary of the PCC Provincial Committee in Ciego de Ávila (2012-2019) and Cienfuegos (2019-2021). Member of the Secretariat of the PCC Central Committee since 2021; head of the Department of Industry, Construction, Tourism, Transportation, and Services (2021-2022); and head of the Agri-Food Department (2022-2024). President of the National Association of Small Farmers since 2024. Member of the PCC Central Committee since 2013. Deputy to the ANPP since 2013 for the municipality of Ciro Redondo (Ciego de Ávila).
Born on July 14, 1982, in Rodas, Cienfuegos. First Secretary of the Young Communist League (UJC) National Committee (2016-2021). First Secretary of the PCC Provincial Committee in Matanzas (2021-2024). Head of the Department of Social Sector Assistance of the PCC Central Committee since 2024. Member of the PCC Central Committee since 2016. Member of the Council of State (2018-2021). Deputy to the ANPP since 2016 for the municipality of Matanzas.
Born on August 20, 1971. Member of the Secretariat of the PCC Central Committee and head of the Economic and Productive Department (2021-2024). First Secretary of the PCC Provincial Committee in Holguín since 2024. Member of the PCC Central Committee since 2016. Deputy to the ANPP since 2021 for the municipality of Camagüey.
Born on October 1, 1970. Member of the Secretariat of the PCC Central Committee, head of the Department of Social Sector Assistance (2021-2024) and head of the Economic and Productive Department since 2024. Member of the PCC Central Committee since 2016. Deputy to the ANPP since 2021 for the municipality of Matanzas.
Born on April 1, 1968. First Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee in Villa Clara (2019-2022). Member of the Secretariat of the PCC Central Committee and head of the Department of Service Assistance at the PCC Central Committee since 2022. Member of the PCC Central Committee since 2011. Deputy to the ANPP since 2022 for the municipality of Sagua la Grande (Villa Clara).
Requirement of being up to 60 years of age
This requirement deserves special consideration.
Curiously, it does not apply to candidates for other key positions in the Cuban State and government, such as Vice President of the Republic and Prime Minister, even though the rationale for its inclusion in the 2019 constitutional text should have been equally applicable.
Furthermore, considering that Fidel Castro served as head of the Cuban State until he was 79, and that Raúl Castro did so until he was 86, it seems difficult to explain why, if age was not a limiting factor in the past, it should be one in the present and future of the Cuban political system.
Furthermore, in a country like Cuba, with an increasingly aging population, the age limit of 60 could be excessive and even discriminatory against representatives who could enjoy full physical and mental health to serve as President of the Republic.
Based on a simple international comparison exercise, considering only the current Ibero-American presidents, it appears that several of them, due to their age at the time of their election (indicated below in parentheses), would not have been legally eligible to run for office if their respective countries had had a limitation similar to that contained in the 2019 Cuban constitutional text.
This includes Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (76), Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega (75), Guatemala’s Bernardo Arévalo (64), Panama’s José Raúl Mulino (64), Colombia’s Gustavo Petro (62), Honduras’ Xiomara Castro (62), Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum (61), and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro (61).
In my opinion, the determination of whether a person is physically and mentally fit to serve as President of the Republic should be entrusted to the National Nominations Commission, as part of its functions, and to the deputies who must elect him, relying on the technical criteria of specialists in the field, if necessary.
This constitutional restriction only leads to a significant impoverishment of the presidential candidate pool.
For example, it excludes Gerardo Hernández Nordelo, current National Coordinator of the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, a member of the Council of State, a Hero of the Republic of Cuba, with 54 combat missions completed in Angola and who spent 16 years in prison for ensuring the security of the Cuban people.
It also determines that other figures, such as Inés María Chapman, Deputy Prime Minister, or Ana María Mari Machado, Vice President of the National Assembly of People’s Power and the Council of State, cannot be considered in a country that, throughout its republican history since 1902, has never had a woman head of state.
This damaging self-restriction could be remedied by the deputies through a constitutional reform that only requires the support of a majority of no less than two-thirds of the members of the ANPP for approval. They have three years to do so.
