It is true that several U.S. companies have signed agreements with Cuban state enterprises. Some of them are in the front line of their business sector. This group of new agreements can be viewed from many angles. I will try to analyze some of them. The moment in which these agreements were signed is perhaps what calls the most attention. It would seem that this goes against all rational expectations in terms of business strategy. They have been signed after an election where a future U.S. president does not offer any security to “continue” the road undertaken by the Obama administration, rather the contrary. Thus it calls attention that despite the supposed relative irrelevance of the Cuban market (and compared to other markets in which those companies are involved) they have risked doing something that seems to go against the political line of the new administration. Cuba is barely a decimal point in the global markets of companies like Google, Caterpillar, General Electric or Good Year. It could be and in fact is different for the cruise companies. There could be diverse speculations but facts are facts, they have signed agreements when expectations don’t seem promising. The “symbolism” of the...

Time is very important, perhaps the most important of all the magnitudes. Even for the economy. Moreover, we Cubans have adopted a special way of referring to time through gerunds, that is, with the “ing” ending. Actually, it wasn’t in Cuba that I heard for the first time that ending with the aim of indicating something with an indefinite duration. It was in an African country, where a local colleague said to me: “Comrade Juan, here we say that work is not to do it, but that “to be doing it.” More than 30 years later I was surprised to see that the use of the gerund has flourished in Cuba, especially in the economy. Expressions like “we’re doing,” “we’re working,” “we’re studying,” “we’re proposing,” “we’re seeking”…fill all types of reports and public expressions. They have become a sort of fashion, actually a plague. For the economy, just as like for life, time is the most limited factor. It is intangible, it does not return and, generally, not taking it into account in an appropriate way costs. The gerund, however, gives us the idea of continuity, it makes us feel that time does not go by, that we are in...

It was Goyo who called my attention about a very interesting daily event when he said to me: “Have you noticed that the P route buses have a front door that has two leafs and the drivers almost always keep one of them closed or have it closed down?” Then the real question came: “And how is it possible if what’s convenient for them is that the people get on? How contradictory, brother, to make those who help them carry out their purpose go through so much trouble!” The same occurs with investment. In 2016 the planned growth for investment (13 percent) was lower than that for 2015, when it grew 24 percent. We had a hard time materializing our investment plans. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as well as national investment. It has to do with many things, from the still not overcome structural deformations to a culture and regulations that frequently do not adequately accompany the purpose and limit completing the investment process or hinder and delay it too much. At times a project of dozens of millions stops because of a product or an equipment that barely costs a twentieth of the amount the process is worth, and...

Just some days ago the Emily Morris Academy published an article sustaining that Cuba is not facing a failure, but rather a challenge. The challenge is the currency reform. In its text it also defended the thesis that the Cuban government had waited for an improvement in relations with the United States to take the step, announced a long time ago, but Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House is straining that expectation. Right or wrong, the thesis had a rationality difficult to contradict. What I’m interested in highlighting today is what we necessarily have to learn from the U.S. presidential succession. I also advance that Cuba is not the country that can come out most affected with this new U.S. political reality that we could call TRUMPVOLUTION (TRUMP- REVOLUTION, TRUMP-EVOLUTION, TRUMP-INVOLUTION). The marked protectionist propensity of the almost already president places many dark clouds over the future of many countries, especially in our region. Meanwhile, his genetic xenophobia, of which in addition he boasts, is turning the life of millions of persons in the United States and outside that country into a headache. To place things in their historical order I feel obliged to say, first of all, that...

President Raúl Castro said so himself on December 2015, and later during the second session of the National Assembly in June 2016: that the year that has just closed would be the worst of the last five years in terms of economic growth. Finally, and before the deputies, Minister of Economy and Planning Ricardo Cabrisas announced the 0.09 percent decline in the country’s Gross Domestic Product. Despite the fact that a part of the conditions and characteristics of the national economy that caused that decrease have not substantially changed, the Cuban government has set itself the goal of growing 2 percent in 2017. Compared to other forecasts, like that of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), that expectation is much more optimistic. Not much can be said about 2016. Firstly, the effort to avoid cuts in the programs that benefit the entire population in a context of material and financial restrictions was important. Secondly, in the midst of those same conditions notable amounts of resources were used for the recovery of Guantánamo province after the passage of Hurricane Matthew. But one would also have to think that the opportunities were not efficiently used and the integration...

We economists once again had the luck and the privilege of having in Cuba U.S. economist, professor in diverse universities and Nobel Economic Sciences Laureate Joseph Stiglitz. Fourteen years ago, invited to one of the events on Globalization and Development summoned by the National Association of Economists and Accountants of Cuba, Stiglitz placed emphasis on the inequality of the process of globalization and how the underdeveloped countries, those that were globalized, would be the losers in this new characteristic of the world economy’s development. For me, his time in the World Bank as chief economist perhaps was the most relevant, especially because it marked new tendencies in that organization and under his direction one of the most notable Development Reports of the 1990s was published, where an in-depth analysis was made of the role of knowledge in development and economic growth. Already by that time – we’re talking of 20 years ago – several Cuban economists had carried out works where the importance of that factor for Cuba’s economic development was demonstrated and also, as a leading factor of those researches, that Cuba had to promote economic policies that would make that advantage really effective. Again in Cuba, Stiglitz reiterated...

He actually didn’t know what all that meant. The uniform, the beret, the lantern, all that seemed as big as the very sun to him. She, on the other hand, was the same sister as always, but now wearing attire very different from the Sunday clothes to go to church. The days prior to this image had been an almost all-out war at home. She had set her mind on leaving to go teach how to read and write, she didn’t know who or where, while her mother tried to show how hard it would be for her and the father listed once and again the tremendous dangers of that different and faraway world. Then I saw her return. She was the same but thinner, with many necklaces made from strange seeds that hung from the neck where the chain with the crucifix and Our Lady of Charity medallion continued tangled. She came with a thick notebook full of words of thanks and love, written in large letters. She came with the same eyes, with another light. Neither the sister nor he understood what was happening that year. Both of them didn’t find out until much later the transcendental meaning...

“They work. They resemble fine silversmiths in everything they do, in wood, in mother-of-pearl, as gunsmiths, in textiles, in painting, in embroidery, in ploughs.” José Martí wrote this about the Vietnamese. There are reasons to believe that the Vietnamese carry Cuba in their hearts. And it’s difficult for us Cubans to not have them in ours. For an entire generation, like mine, they were a living example of the capacity to resist and of the will to win in an unequal battle, where the United States used for the first time its weapons of extermination, never seen before. With a decimated population, whole families who disappeared or died, a territory devastated by gunfire and chemical weapons, and its economy practically destroyed, the Vietnamese reached peace in the mid-1970s. From that point on they faced the task of rebuilding the country. Vietnam’s recovery is not a miracle; or better said, the miracle of Vietnam is not having been the product of a miracle, but rather of the virtue of work and the subsequent application of a program of transformations that drove it to growing prosperity year after year. Today, Vietnam displays impressive statistics: Date / GDP Millions of euros € /GDP...

Three apparently indirectly related news items motivated these lines. Not too long ago the magazine Nature, one of the most prestigious scientific publications in the world, published an article where it affirmed that Cuban science can be “Global.” On Wednesday it was published in Cuba that UNESCO is forecasting a deficit of teachers worldwide for the next decade. But in September of this year, when the school year was inaugurated in Cuba, it was also announced that we already have a deficit of teachers. The “machine for the production of scientists,” a decisive part of the “science-making machine,” which has been one of the best achieved creations of the Cuban socialist project since 1959, is today facing practically unprecedented challenges. It’s not that we didn’t have important scientists before 1959. It would be false to affirm something like this, but what we did not have before that year was a system capable of massively producing high-quality scientists. The University we have today is the direct product, but evolved, of the University Reform approved on January 10, 1962, a reform carried out to put that University inherited from the underdeveloped capitalism in tune with the development effort the country needed. Two...

Some historians say that sugar entered Cuba by Puerto Güincho, in Nuevitas, Camagüey, coming from the neighbor island Hispaniola. It came to stay, even in spite of ourselves. In a month or a little more, the sugarcane harvest will start again in the country. The sugar industry (today still based on the production of sugar crystals and some syrup’s by-products) will have to become our “sugarcane industry” sometime, and eventually, we will be able to profit from all the potential of the grass. Sugarcane—either starting from the plant or as a final destination—perhaps represents one of the biggest chances the archipelago has to boost a productive transformation process that may help us to live in a prosperous country. This achievement will depend on a lot of factors, but mainly on the change of many “settled mind-sets” used to their way of thinking and doing in the industry. Cuba has a relation of love and hate, enthusiasm and frustration with sugar; this is no doubt an almost fetishist perception of the product. All our history, our culture, and a good deal of the Cuban imaginary have revolved around the cane juice, the sugarloaf, the syrup, the spirits, and, of course, the...

The news that the intricate village of Motembo, in Villa Clara, could rise up out of anonymity and play a decisive role in the Cuban economy over the coming years, hit the press over the last few days. Estimates of probable oil stocks announced by the Australian company MEO in the area called Block 9 have rescued Motembo from the oblivion of 100 years, because it was there, in the nineteenth century, where the first well of light crude oil Cuba was discovered. Many expectations and new hopes were created following the announcement, in times in which the reduction of oil supplies from Venezuela has raised in many the spectre of the Special Period. However, the news that it brought to my mind was the once more the reality of the evil that we have suffered for most of our history as a country: the energy dependence we have carried from the early twentieth century. In Economics, dependence has many dimensions: energy, food, technological, financial, commercial ... Cuba suffers them all. Some have also increased in these times, the result of the long crisis that we suffered from the early nineties of the last century and which we have not...

Having a development plan that runs until 2030 does not mean that in 2030 Cuba will be a developed country. Now that the archipelago has begun to discuss the documents from the Seventh Party Congress, where the development model that we want to achieve is set out. In order for it to be prosperous; I think that the topic of the moment, or that of time management, is decisive. Advancing along the path of development with a plan (I would have preferred to call it a program) means that we work together in a coordinated and determined way looking for that plan. It also means that this plan will have to undergo constant updates throughout the years, right up until 2030. The first step with then be to agree about what development we want and what is the standing of the development that we can aspire towards, being, as we are, a poor country, still subject to an embargo, whose population is ostensibly decreasing and aging. We cannot take a great leap forwards in development because we have many accumulated deficits. In essential areas (like that of computerisation) we are advancing at a speed which is slower than the rest...

If we could calculate how much, in terms of lost revenue, services no longer lent, and interrupted labour, we would have in our hands a very illustrative resource to help understand just how important it is to rely on a good, modern, and efficient ‘infrastructure’. In the documents approved in the 7th Congress of the Cuban Communist Party, and whose discussion, who for all those who want to participate in life in the island, it has already begun: a group of ‘strategic areas’ with which to reach development, are described . What is infrastructure, economically speaking? It is a group of sectors and activities, that provide services or guarantee access to services that facilitate people’s daily life. As much in their productive tasks as when they are quietly watching TV. A simple example of sectors of infrastructure are those of energy, transport, communications, water and sanitation. Obviously if we want to productively transform the country and insert ourselves, with real profits, into the global economy, infrastructure is decisive.  But infrastructure is also essential if we want to achieve a sustainable development, if we really want to be prosperous, if we aspire to greater equality. Including, if Cuba wants to be...

Cuba did not arrive at Obama’s presidential visit with its head bowed and hands supplicating. It arrived, that’s correct, with clothes stained with the vicissitudes of 56 years of self-abandonment and of resisting the jostling of a neighbour… a neighbour that became an enemy because of the decisions of many former president elects before Obama came. It seems that this neighbour understood that force and anger only generates more force and anger. The visit and its results have generated all kinds of impressions and positions. Back in his country many have criticised the American leader for daring to take this step. From this side of the Florida Straits some are more focused on highlighting the threats than the opportunities arising from this visit. It would seem that the critics here and there would prefer another 56 years of embargo instead of trying the path to normalisation. These are the paradoxes of a reality that seems to change more quickly than some of its protagonists. From my perspective the outcome of this visit for Cuba is very positive. Augustín Lage has listed the outcomes and I agree wholeheartedly. The President of the United States did not come here to demand submission,...

Today I’d like to do one of those ‘close your eyes and imagine’ exercises. I’d like to think of some of the consequences and the challenges that the bilateral changes between the United States and Cuba mean.  I’m going to start with one that is nearly a done deal: the establishment of regular flights. What does at least 10 daily flights landing at Havana Airport mean? First of all it will mean more income from ground operations and for landing permission, it will also impact revenue from airport taxes. Without a doubt our taxi drivers will earn more. The increase in American visitors will cause a rise in the demand for rooms in hotels, hostels, and private rental houses, and a greater demand on services of all types, particularly restaurants and car rentals… And, as in essence tourism is first and foremost and adventure, even the everyday “boteros” will benefit from the tourists. How much will this mean in terms of revenue? No idea, but it’s not an insignificant amount. The other side of the airport coin is the challenge it presents from an operational point of view. Those who travel often know how far the Cuban terminals are from...

After growing 4{bb302c39ef77509544c7d3ea992cb94710211e0fa5985a4a3940706d9b0380de} in 2015, after 1{bb302c39ef77509544c7d3ea992cb94710211e0fa5985a4a3940706d9b0380de} in 2014, the Cuban economy is projected to grow 2{bb302c39ef77509544c7d3ea992cb94710211e0fa5985a4a3940706d9b0380de} in 2016. Reverting to a rate of growth lower than 3{bb302c39ef77509544c7d3ea992cb94710211e0fa5985a4a3940706d9b0380de} is not the best news, even when this growth is after the best rate of growth that the national economy has reached in the last six years. It’s also logical to think that this growth of 2{bb302c39ef77509544c7d3ea992cb94710211e0fa5985a4a3940706d9b0380de} will influence the improvement plans for the country, by reducing the total product available in 2016, as much for consumption as for investment. This rate of growth will be achieved in a complex environment with a mixed meaning for the national economy. On one hand the International Monetary Fund anticipates that the global economy will shrink. In our region, the countries that have led the growth for years find themselves stagnating. For Cuba, the political events in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina and the weak economic performance of the first two aforementioned countries have become the biggest threats in the short and medium term given their sizeable presence in the Cuban foreign market. In the case of Venezuela, its role in asset trading, fundamentally in oil supply (approximately 100,000 barrels a day) and its significant role in...