The presidential elections in the United States will decide today who the 45th president will be. OnCuba talked on the phone with Gustavo Arnavat, principal advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), based in Washington, about the electoral tendency of the Cuban community and the possible consequences for bilateral relations between Cuba and the United States after a victory by Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In recent days the media has reflected a possible lead by Donald Trump among the Cuban Americans, but throughout the campaign the polls gave Hillary Clinton as favorite. What do you think will occur this November 8?
In the United States there has always been an important part of the Cuban community in favor of the Republican Party. There’s no doubt that the historic exile will vote for Trump, but in the last 15 years the Cuban-American community has changed a great deal. There is a tendency, above all among the Cubans who have become U.S. citizens in the last 20 years, to vote for the Democrats, as happened in 2012 when more than half of the Cubans resident in the United States voted for Barack Obama.
If we look at what the polls say, the tendency is to vote for Hillary, since the majority of the Cuban community has shown its approval for the Obama administration’s policy toward Cuba, policies that will have continuity with the Democratic victory.
What importance does the vote of the Cuban community in the United States have for a possible victory by Clinton?
Beyond the importance in itself of attaining the electoral victory, the support of the Cuban Americans to the Democratic nominee has given them a different image in the Latino community in the United States. For many years the Cubans in this country have been classified as a group very different from the rest of the minorities. Trump’s xenophobic comments regarding the Mexicans and Latinos in general have made many Cubans feel part of and to participate in the initiatives against the Republican nominee. This has undoubtedly been an opportunity for them to integrate and the rest of the Latinos see the Cubans as part of one same community in the United States.
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Which would be the consequences for the process of normalization between Cuba and the United States if Hillary Clinton wins? What would occur if Trump comes to power?
If Hillary wins, according to what she has said during the presidential campaign, I believe we can expect a commercial and diplomatic policy toward Cuba similar to that carried out by the Obama administration. That is to say, there would be a continuity of the bilateral efforts to promote commercial and diplomatic relations, although in these negotiations there are two sides and I believe the interest the Cuban government shows and the decisions it makes in favor of advancing in the normalization will also have a repercussion in the continuity of the process.
Meanwhile, Trump has said that if he wins he will revoke the executive directives issued by Barack Obama. If this were to occur, he could even include the directive the president issued in early 2009 that allowed the Cuban Americans to unrestrictedly travel to the island to visit their relatives.
A Trump government could mean the return to the old policies of Bush, when the Cubans resident in the United States could only travel to Cuba once every three years, something that would be rather painful for the community. This possible scenario would also be negative for many U.S. persons and corporations who at this time wish to travel to or establish commercial relations with Cuba.
