2015 can be a historic season for Cubans in the MLB. 25 Cuban players presented credentials of talent in the last season. Nine of them were rookies who left their wake in a greater or lesser extent. Since 1955 no more than 8 Cubans debuted in MLB. Apparently, in the current season 30 or more players from the island may be in the best level of world baseball. During 2014 there were 5 Cubans in the All Star Game, a rookie of the year in the American League (José Abreu), a HR Derby winner for the second consecutive year (Yoenis Céspedes) and Silver Slugger winners (Abreu and Alexei Ramirez ) and 3 nominees to the Golden Gloves (Adeiny Hechavarría, Yoenis Céspedes and Alexei Ramirez).
In this paper we analyze the projections of Cuban players with the greatest impact for 2015:
José Abreu: The Steamer projection house puts Abreu with 293/367/554, hitting 36 HR with 102 RBI. Abreu´s performance will be a priority for the health of the Chicago White Sox in the standings. Fangraphs.com sees him with a WAR (Wins as replacement) of 4.3, one less victory than in 2014 (5.3). If keeping his OBP (383, tenth in the entire circuit), AVE (317, fifth), slugging (581, first), and OPS (964, second), Abreu will among those voted for the MVP at the end of the season.
Alexei Ramirez: The Cuban missile is one of the most underrated Latino players. Fangraphs presumed t he Cuban will have a decline in 2015 with 268/301/379 with 10 HR and 62 RBI. But Ramirez remains a player of a high horizon, with 3 straight seasons stealing 20 bases or more and amassi ng 157 or more hits. Last season he regained the lost power in 2013 and produced 52 extra-base hits. Another aspect is his durability as he has been in 158 games or more for the past 4 seasons.
Yoenis Cespedes: Céspedes´ previous year problem was linked to a mediocre OBP of 301. Still, his WAR (3.4) was the best of his first three seasons in MLB. In the projection of ZiPS, Céspedes is going to have a great campaign of 275/324/482 with 27 HR and 103 RBI. We will s ee if he can meet these metrics and win the HR Derby for the third consecutive year. N o one has been able to achieve it since the start of the All-Star Games in 1985.
Yasiel Puig: He is the Cuban player with major presence in the media, followed, criticized and praised in MLB. Puig is only 24. He has been focused on improving his speed and trying to steal more bases in 2015, Los Angeles Times reports . He has been criticized by his personality, by badly running the bases and by his wild horse spirit, but Puig is a direct competitor and already in 2014 he had a WAR of 5.1. Fangraphs says Puig will have a line of 292/371/493 with 21 HR and 87 RBI. I hope him to exceed these records.
Aroldis Chapman: Chapman has not yet been able to save more than 40 games in a season in MLB. This will be one of his challenges for 2015 because all projections place him saving from 34-39 games. I think Chapman will save over 40 and maybe could fight for this leadership. His other challenge is to see if he can keep his great record of strikeouts per nine innings of 17.67. Fangraphs says he cannot keep it (15.94). We should always expect the best from Chapman, whose fastball in 2014 averaged 100.3 mph.
Jorge Soler: If Soler plays this season as he did in 24 games during last September he could be in the fight for Rookie of the Year Award in the National League. Steamer house projects him with 24 HR and 78 RBI. He is the No. 12 prospect in baseball, according to baseballamerica.com. So, Soler is a rough diamond that will bequeath us a funny story in 2015.
Yasmani Tomas: Many eyes are on Tomas for this Spring Training. He has not been seen well when fielding groundballs at third base, but Coach Chip Hale has said he is working very hard. So far he hits 1 for 12 and has not been able to shine. But Tomas is only 24, a great age for polishing errors. It is very difficult to project a rookie and even more if never played before on the system. But Mike Podhorzer in his Pod Projections sees him batting .271 with 23 HR and 84 RBI. We’ll see how far Tomas can go in his rookie year.
Rusney Castillo: The player from Ciego de Avila does not have yet his position in the Boston outfield. Still, ZiPS sees him playing in 142 games with line of 269/326/386 with 11hr, 50 RBI and 21 stolen bases. It would be a good start.
Yunel Escobar: He has had a decline in his batting in the last three seasons (253, 256, and 258). Fangraphs sees him hitting up to .269 with an OBP of 330. Escobar will be playing every day in a franchise that promises to reach at least the discussion of the League Championship.
Adeiny Hechavarría: The shortstop from Santiago is in the range of being a Golden Glove. His production has not been remarkable. At 25 he is able to lift his offensive numbers, especially the power (SLU of 356 in 2014). This season he can hit over 20 doubles, 10 triples and 1 HR to exceed what he did last year.
Leonys Martin: Leonys will steal more than 30 bases in 2015. Defensively, he is a star outfielder and also a good hitter, but he should reduce his 114 strikeouts in 2014. Fangraphs has him hitting 22 doubles, 7 triples and 11 HR with 55 RBI and AVE of .268. I hope Leonys to exceed these calculations to raise his value this season.
Kendrys Morales: 2015 will be better than the bitter 2014 for Morales who just had a SLU of 338. It must be a year of recovery for the player from Havana. If he reaches 20 HR and 80 RBI he will be broken the metric analysis.
Roenis Elias: The only Cuban pitcher with 10 wins or more in 2014 (10-12), who had a great ERA of 3.85 in his rookie year. His goal is to match or improve those numbers. I saw him pitching in style some games in 2014 and I think Elias is closer to the improvement than to decline.
Jose Fernandez: The return of the “Dolphin” will be in late May or June. He is eager to tell all the houses of projections that the (9-5) and 2.87 of ERA they predicted for him is a fallacy. Fernandez is the Cuban player who likes challenges the most.
Odrisamer Despaigne: Despaigne pitched for (4-7) and ERA of 3.36 for a team that did not batted in 2014. The GM A.J. Preller has changed this reality and added more power to the 2015 San Diego’s artillery. Despaigne is very close to earn the spot of 5th starter. ZiPS has projected him with (7-8) and ERA of 3.65. Pitching in Petco Park, he can cover those numbers.
Other Cubans that could generate headlines in MLB for 2015: Yasmani Grandal, Dayan Viciedo, Alexander Guerrero, Raisel Iglesias, Armando Rivero, Hector Olivera, Dariel Álvarez, Onelki García, Yonder Alonso, Felix Perez, Henry Urrutia, Daniel Carbonell.
