Cuban tourism will not be able to reach 3 million visitors in 2024 either. At least that is what can be deduced from the evolution of the sector in recent months, after a promising start to the year.
If the first quarter marked growth compared to the same period in 2023, the second quarter already brought a worrying slowdown that in the last two months has turned into a growing debt.
The recent numbers published by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) confirm this: by the end of August, 1,608,078 international visitors had arrived on the island, 96.5% of those received in the same period last year.
The first issuing market continues to be Canada, with 665,871 tourists, although with a drop of more than 10,000, 98.5% compared to 2023.
The arrival of Cubans residing abroad also decreased to 203,318 (84.3%), almost 40,000 fewer visitors.
The other side of the coin is Russia, which with 132,935 tourists — more than 25,000 above — shows a 124.8% increase compared to the previous year.
Almost all other major source markets registered year-on-year declines in the period: the United States (93.9%), Spain (73%), Germany (95.9%), France (91.5%) and Italy (82.8%).
The exceptions among the top 10 markets — in addition to Russia — are Mexico (106.7%) and Argentina (104.9%), according to ONEI statistics.
From more than 3 million to 2.7…
In August, 144,981 tourists finally arrived in Cuba, the second lowest figure of the year, only surpassed by June (134,948). According to official figures, the last month to exceed 200,000 visitors was April, when 215,158 arrived.
At this rate, it is impossible to surpass the barrier of 3 million, the goal initially set for this year by the Cuban authorities.
However, given the scenario presented in the middle of the year, the Cuban government apparently reconsidered that figure, which was clearly too optimistic.
According to the report on economic performance presented to the National Assembly in July, that forecast was lowered to 2.7 million, although the data was not amplified at that time. At that time, the plan was already around 85%, although “still well below” what was achieved in the first half of 2019, as there were only 51.6% of arrivals.
However, with another two months computed, even that official forecast seems risky.
If there is no significant revival in the last months of 2024, especially with the start of the new high season, it could also be difficult to match the approximately 2.4 million tourists who arrived in 2023.
This is despite the high and sustained investment in hotels and tourist infrastructure in general carried out by the island’s government, amid questions from experts and the general population.
Tourism is a key sector for the ailing Cuban economy, as it is the second largest contributor to the gross domestic product (GDP) and the third source of foreign currency, after professional services and remittances.
However, as a result of COVID-19 — together with the effect of U.S. sanctions and internal difficulties — the sector experienced a significant decline from which it has not managed to recover as the authorities hope, unlike other Caribbean destinations.
