The September 15 marked one year after the country started the eighteenth Population and Housing Census. This far after and still all conclusive results of this important research, expected for last July haven’t been released.
In a recent Cabinet meeting led by President Raul Castro it was announced that according to the final results of Census 2012, the Cuban population is 11,167,325 inhabitants, although the website of the National Bureau of Statistics and Information (ONEI) lowers that figure to 11,163,934.
But if regarding the timetable established for the Census information is experiencing delays- the site states that the 2012 Statistical Yearbook of Cuba is finishing its processing-the figure reported indicate a setback in terms of population density, about 10,418 people less than in the 2002Population and Housing Census.
Eleven million and counting down
11 million Cubans! For having repeated the figure in so many speeches, slogans, information, and even in colloquial language, the number seems to have been attached to the adjective, as another element of national identity itself. This is the case since 2002, when the Census of Population and Housing found out that we had reached that figure.
And it is not only too quickly get used to the number but, since 1919 until the beginning of the new century, the Cuban population manifested an average increase of one million per decade, in contrast to preliminary data provided by the ONEI, from the latest census exercise.
It turns out that, in the decade that elapsed between the previous and the last census (2002-2012), the Cuban population declined for the first time in the history of the 17 surveys in 13, 809 people, currently running at 11,163,325 (data to be ratified).
Still this does not constitute a threat close to the almost idiosyncratic 11-million number of Cubans, but we also cannot think of a replacement to the formula of addition, because there are fewer births…
To this should be added, or continue subtracting-the possible impact of migration flows yet to be assessed, which could result from the new policies in this regard (Decree-Law 302), in force since January 14.
Specializing, we see that according to preliminary data from the Census, the provinces with the largest decrease since 2002 to date were Havana and Villa Clara, and the fastest growing, Matanzas and Santiago de Cuba.
Although it may seem paradoxical, the capital remains as one of the provinces most “loaded” respect to its population, along with Santiago de Cuba and Holguin. Among the three, they are home to 37.9% of all Cubans.
Something that will keep us expectantly until they publish the conclusive figures from the census announced for July of the current year, if finally Cuba’s population’s supremacy lies on women or men. Preliminary data yield the number of Cuban women slightly exceeds that of males at 0, 18%, having Havana and Artemisa province with lesser amounts of men). But this result contradicts statistical system, calculating that men represent a 0.4% more than women within the total population. In any case, what seems unchanged is that we walk pretty even numerically on either sex on the island
For ages, the aging trend is confirmed with 18, 3% of the population over 60 years. If we refer to the results of 2002, we note that this indicator increased by 3.6 percentage points. Almost identical is the proportion at 15 years or less, 18, 4%. Meanwhile, in the range of 16-59 years is the bulk of the population, bringing together the 63, 3%.
In relation to the housing units, 3,931,643, they are inhabited on a national average by 2.84 people, which points to an improvement in this indicator, which a decade ago was 3, 16. It is true that this is due in part to the decrease in population, but also housing units increased by 11, 2% in all provinces with respect to the previous census.
We are close to really know how much the Cuban population in the last decade varied, however, it appears that those who like the slogan of the 11 million should show it while they can, because by next census-fundamental research to be carried out countries every 10 years-, nobody knows how much may subtract the low birth rate, declining childbearing age people, and migration.
In this sense, it is already announced the implementation of various measures in terms of addressing these phenomena, causes and consequences of population aging, however, it will be very difficult to reverse the current countdown in the short term.
Author
Natalia Guevara Cruz
