“Since 2008, the Cuban economy is stagnant. In 2011 GDP growth was 2.7%, below the average for Latin America and the Caribbean (4.3%). Official growth forecast for 2012-2015 was revised downwards from 5.1% to 4.4%. The main objective of the Cuban reform doesn’t seem to maximize economic growth through an accelerated opening, but doing it in a gradual and cautions way and with the objective of institutionalizing and bringing “order” to the country are also priorities.
Therefore, foreign direct investment (FDI) must be inserted into an economy that doesn’t offer great incentives from aggregated demand, in an institutional changing setting but only gradually that keeps a selective policy toward foreign capital.
However, the unavoidable need for external funds to encourage investment and further liberalization of the economy in small-scale enterprises could provide future opportunities for FDI. An element in favor of attracting FDI is the success of the adjustment policy implemented since 2008.
Cuba has managed to reduce the fiscal deficit, imports and control the growth of external debt. One of the biggest achievements so far is the Cuban reform progress in the recovery of financial and macroeconomic balances. The risk country for FDI has improved with these results compared to 2008-2009. ”
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