The coming into force today of the updated migration law in Cuba has created different expectations inside and outside the country, where divergent forecasts range from the uncontrolled exodus, to even those who think a massive return of migrants will begin.
In essence, the legal body simplifies the hitherto cumbersome for nationals traveling abroad, in addition to removing the term "final exit."
Any citizen without legal impediments can apply for his passport to the relevant offices and that document is sufficient for the Cuban state to allow traveling abroad.
For Cubans residing abroad as émigrés it opens the possibility of permanent return, including those who were considered "official missions defectors" and meet the requirements to apply for their return to Cuba.
Those who predict the jams at airports, based their comments on dozens of nations that do not require a visa, while they also believe that there will be more candidates to apply for entry permits in the embassies of those who impose that requirement.
Another area of thought found by OnCuba, opposes this idea and based their views on the cost of air travel, visa procedures, and carrying capacity of the traveler in the receiving state, so they predict no substantial increase in traffic will happen.
In many circles where Cubans debate on the issue, the prevailing view is that the new law allows not give up residence in Cuba, while for 24 months you can stay in a foreign country and opt for a similar condition, for example in the United States.
While others think that the measure could derail the Cuban Adjustment Act, and therefore would be more difficult for residents on the island to get a residence in the neighboring country, like it happens to any other citizen of the world.
Among those concerned about the reaction of the U.S. government in this regard, is Senator (r) Cuban-American Marco Rubio, who wrote a letter to the State Department, where he expressed such concern and was answered that the policy would remain intact, although they clarified that it was competition of another area of the administration.
An objective appraisal i predicts changes in the conduct of the Cubans with intentions to seek economic improvement abroad, and even the discreet and gradual return of those who migrated permanently.
There is another element that supports the above conjecture, and is the academic criteria and reiterated in other schools of thought, the announced Foreign Investment Law which could include Cuban immigrants with capital or companies in their home countries, to establish branches or invest in Cuba.
Author
Benito Martínez
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