You do not need to give a lot of thought to know two things:
The first is that the attitude of the Bank that suspended services to the Cuban Interests Section in Washington has nothing to do with the restrictions of the blockade. Because these have been there for over 50 years ago, but in 1977 all legal arrangements were made, from a financial point of view, under the Vienna Convention and the Agreement on Establishment of the Office of Interests in Cuba and Washington, for these could operate without the restrictions that now the bank puts to the Office of Cuba in Washington. Let’s see why it is doing it¸ because the embargo cannot be put forward as a justification.
The second is that neither Armengol , but mostly Montaner , behave up to the situation, when they talk about Cuba laundering money. Implying that’s why Cuba has been punished. Where do they draw that argument from?
If the Interests Section knew of the measure since July and it is now that reports it, it seems to me that this is more a result of that Cuban officials know that such a move is totally illegal and presumably think that is not worth scaring people with a situation that is not justified, it is illegal and it can be solved relatively easily, because if a bank cannot do it, any other would, since they always operate within the law established and agreed upon long ago by both governments.
It is foolish to imagine that Cuba is also pressing, taking advantage of the situation. Well this is something that Cuba has nothing to do with, but a matter to be solved by the United States Government. For it would be absurd to think that the Obama administration wants to eliminate the operation of the Interests Section of Cuba in Washington. Much less to obstruct its own policy measures established in 2009 by the current administration. Obama threw down the measures taken by Bush son against Cuba and so far there is no sign that he wants to reverse that action.
What we do know, from long ago, is that in some Cuban political sectors , particularly in Miami, has always been characters with influence and power, willing to slow down, hinder or even prevent , the few relationships that exist between Cuba and the United States from flowing smoothly. Despite being a totally unpopular measure for the vast majority of the Cuban community. Because we know that those people don’t care if that harms some Cubans there. As long as that policy that has historically been there keeps filling their pockets .
It has been a constant in the confrontation between Cuba and the United States , provided that those mentioned sectors have seen some advances in the rapprochement between the two countries , they move their influences, to hinder the potential positive course of events . Nor is unknown their interest for these offices not to exist. Much less if they can help improving relations between Cuba and the United States.
It is true that the aggressive U.S. policy survives, but today the “carrot and stick “are handled with intelligence that was never there before. Obama knows what he wants in policy towards Cuba and will not accept obstacles that others try to impose him. Much less from groups that has been so inefficient in handling policy toward Cuba. Obama knows that these groups and so-called dissidents in Cuba have nothing new to say on policy towards the island
I do not believe that the action taken by the Bank abovementioned has been induced by the U.S. administration. For it would be absurd to imagine that Obama will now adopt measures that contradict those taken since 2009 , and more than that, he will allow others to totally contradict his current policy toward Cuba. His policy approach has been the two-lane, where one of them is pressing the government of Cuba through the blockade, but the other seeks rapprochement between Cubans on both sides of the Straits of Florida.
It is true the current administration has not lifted the blockade but it hasn’t taken financial measures like this affecting the operability of the Cuban Interests Section in Washington, because that will nullify Obama’s intentions to bring together Cuban civil society with Cubans in Miami in order to create the conditions for a peaceful internal change that benefits the United States. Therefore, I don’t believe there are room within the US policy for measures that jeopardize the current rapprochement between Cubans both sides of the Florida Strait.
If that wasn’t the case, we must prepare for a return to the aggressiveness of the 1960s. But I don’t see this as a possible scenario. The relations between the two countries has slowly entered a path of changes, of no return, at least as long as Obama is in office
I have the impression that the measures taken by the Bank against the Interests Section of Cuba, meets the aforementioned constant. There is a clear process of rapprochement between the two countries and where this occurs, supporters of the U.S. Cuba policy want to stop them.
Indeed, recent statements by Obama in Miami show his intention to deepen the policy that he has followed, instead of hindering the approach that he has been looking for. Obama said the policy towards Cuba is old, outdated and must be updated. What specifically he meant with it, I do not know, but everyone is hopeful to hear something like that anyway .
For these reasons I am convinced that the problem will be solved and it would not be strange that the State Department itself is also trying to make viable a solution.
For now, by suspending its consular activities, the Office of Cuba in Washington does nothing else but to take care of a problem that really is not its, nor is the solution in its hands . As we say in sports , the ball is on the other court.
If the matter is not solved, Cuba could take further action, but I do not think any of the possible have to do with subjecting the Interests of Washington in Havana to a similar situation. It would be like saying , collect both Offices and all is over. Which would be a political absurdity.
