The forecasts for the world economy, whether they are the most moderate or cautious, or the most catastrophic, all make it very clear that the next few months will be one of the most difficult that this new globalized world will have to face; using the phrase of an article by Krugman referring to the United States, the economies are in an induced coma. Getting out of this induced coma will probably cost much more than it costs to keep economies in that state. The weaker economies undoubtedly will probably suffer the most. Almost all governments today face the difficult situation of maintaining social isolation and at the same time semi-paralyzed economies with enormous present and future costs in economic terms or that of opening economies, to recover the dynamic loss, facing the risk of new waves of pollution and the loss of more lives. No matter what, it’s a tough decision. What are the limits that the economy of any country can support, no matter how powerful it is? How long can the induced coma last? Perhaps the sample is in the almost desperation of some countries to “return to normality” in economic terms within this pandemic’s abnormality. Our...

In recent years, Cuba has had to face a group of unforeseen events that could exceed anyone’s imagination. The unfortunate fall of a Cubana de Aviación plane in May 2018 at takeoff with the consequent loss of life and the immense pain it caused; the assumption of an administration in the United States that has broken all records of persecution against Cuba; an accelerated right-wing process in Latin America and the tenacious effort of the Lima Group to return the continent to its worst years of submission to the interests of the United States. The coup d’état against Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, Lenín Moreno’s betrayal in Ecuador, the most recent coup against Evo Morales in Bolivia. Those three processes brought with them the end of the various medical missions in those three countries, with the consequent economic effects for Cuba. Let’s add to the above having inherited a bulky external debt, both the contracted and the one restructured with the Paris Club, as well as the other contracted with suppliers, a great deal of which has not been honored, decisive in supplying the Cuban market and that together with the persecution of OFAC increases the country’s risk and financial costs...

Humanity will emerge from this pandemic. Previously, pandemics also occurred and humanity survived. It is true that in all of the above the world was less connected and that even poor mobility created physical barriers that delayed the spread of any contagion. Now that great mobility that we have all identified as one of the great strengths of the global economy, becomes a perfect ally of a virus that already has a high capacity for propagation. But human beings will succeed because throughout their short life on this Earth they have learned to adapt. It is true that this way out and the reduction of the damage of their ability to behave collectively, will have a lot to do with the seriousness with which each citizen of this world takes this situation, the respect and consideration that we all have towards our fellow citizens, with collective discipline but also with individual discipline and that each one exercises the duty to respect and the right to be respected. Nothing can be demanded of others if we are not able to demand it of ourselves. We’ll survive, but surviving is not enough. Experience should lead us to be better human beings, because...

He stopped in front of everyone, stared at them and then spoke: Yes, I am Mr. Day Zero. Although it won’t be exactly that way, Day Zero of monetary and exchange rate unification will come and although we have all been waiting for it for a long time, some with a kind of expectations and others with others, some armed with technical knowledge and others with “street” knowledge, the truth is that Mr. Day Zero will always have a card up his sleeve to surprise us. No matter how much we’ve wanted to anticipate ourselves, there will be many unforeseen and other unexpected events. As a famous economist once said when asked about the predictability of economic science: the theory is always gray, but the tree of life is always green. What I am convinced of is that it will not be possible to foresee everything or anticipate a good part of the effects, in the same way that I am sure that neither the monetary and exchange rate unification will be the magic wand that will resolve or change such decisive issues for our country, namely: inefficiency, low productivity, increase in exports, adequate reduction of imports, short-term debt and...

While one of Los Van Van songs fills the premises, a professional Cuban dancer, who emigrated several years ago to Warsaw, shows Polish women and men the elementary steps to follow Formell's music. She started these classes with a dozen “students” as a resource to survive in a country she barely knew, minus the language. Today she has more than 4,000 students, many have learned Cuban-style Spanish and many others have traveled to the island to learn about the in situ origin of the music and dance they like so much. In Warsaw, in the middle of winter, she spreads our culture, ways of speaking “Spanish,” customs and places of her homeland. It is perhaps one of the best promotion actions: face to face, word of mouth, body to body, because this is what dance demands. Thanks to these skills, she also manages to earn income, a part of which she sends to Cuba, to “help” her parents and for her little sister to realize her dreams of being a lawyer, and saves a little every month because she aspires to have her own business in her homeland As a worldwide phenomenon that marks this era, mass migration became a...

Whoever spends time walking through the blocks that make up 23rd Street, I Street, 25th Street and F Street, will appreciate an interesting phenomenon. On the corner of 25 and G, a private restaurant is almost always full from 8:30 am and during lunch and dinner time it is difficult to get a table. Further down at 23 and G along the lane from Vedado to Marianao, another establishment, perhaps a cooperative, also manages to have clients quite frequently. But on the corner that makes the diagonal, stands the Castillo de Jagua, a restaurant with a lot of tradition, that received a strong investment from the budget (I don't know if local, provincial or national). Recently repaired and modernized, its tables remain in a lonely state without customers. Strange. There, the prices, because of the luck that it belongs to the state, are more within reach of average Cubans’ pockets than in the other two mentioned above. However, its level of occupation is far from that of those others. The same occurs at the corner of San Lázaro and Infanta. On one side El Vicky with its tables occupied and on the other the old oyster bar with its empty...

Whoever takes Vedado’s Avenida de los Presidentes from Havana’s Malecón and keeps heading south for about forty minutes if there’s not much traffic, will come to my town, Santiago de las Vegas. If you continue heading south on Boyeros Avenue, you will see just to your left and before starting the climb of Cacahual hill, a restaurant almost in ruins whose name is La Tabernita. If you continue uphill, after passing the military unit (which by the way has lost its traditional stone walls that were part of the undeclared landscape heritage) the traveler will distinguish a thick foliage and within it, a kind of ruins that in its time was another restaurant, El Rincón Criollo, famous not only among the original inhabitants of the town, but also in the province of Havana, since it became a sort of paradigm of the country restaurants of the 1950s and first decade of the 1960s. El Rincón Criollo was also part of the popular and gastronomic culture of my town. Founded by Rudesindo Acosta, whom the residents of the town called Sindito, the place became very popular. Sindito’s roast pork and black beans were like a seal of quality. Legend has it...

The resident Cuban population at the end of 2018 was 11,209,628 and its distribution by sex says that 5,575,988 were men while 5,633,640 were women. That year we were already less Cubans than in 2010, when the resident Cuban population was around 11,210,064. The demographic alarms about the behavioral trends of the homo sapiens cubanus have gone off for quite some time. These are generally long-term trends, so changing them is not a day's task. Of course, as for the decrease of residents in the country, there’s the option of choosing to stimulate the immigration of other inhabitants from other regions of the planet, although in my personal preference I choose to do the impossible to keep the Cubans in their land. Anyway, those 11,209,628, perhaps a little more, a little less, are the ones who are here and with whom we must push forward in that effort to make Cuba a prosperous, sustainable, independent and sovereign country. Thus, getting all of them properly employed is decisive for that purpose. In other words, without Cubans employed where they can perform more according to their abilities, that task will become much more difficult, almost impossible. That is why the meeting of...

A phrase at the Mesa Redonda TV program on Thursday, January 9 has motivated this article: “We don’t need enterprise directors, we need businesspeople.” I wondered immediately. So all those thousands or millions of hours and resources dedicated in all these years to the training of enterprise directors, what happened to them? Homo sapiens share much of our genetic code (that combination of protein chains called DNA) with the rest of the planet's living beings, even with the most elemental single-celled beings. Only some of those protein combinations are specific. Similarly, in the homo sapiens universe the similarity of our genetic codes is impressive, just a few combinations differentiate us from each other. Scientific advances have allowed us to manipulate these codes and today we are very close to being able to “produce designer babies,” which has generated serious ethical questions. I don’t know if it’s possible to hope that one day that manipulation will produce babies born with the characteristics of businesspeople and/or entrepreneurs, which would represent a tremendous savings in university careers and training courses, as well as a rise in unemployment among those who make a living from it. Something not very good for someone like me,...

For me, Havana’s Playa Municipality’s 25th Street begins when it intersects with 31st Street, crosses La Lisa Municipality and continues straight until it dissolves into what is still known as the San Antonio de la Baños thruway. The inhabitants of that city can say that they live at the end of 25th Street. 25th Street could also be known as the corridor of science and technology in Cuba. No other street, anywhere else in Cuba, concentrates in its surroundings so many science and technology institutions. Around it, the Alma Mater of all of today’s research centers known as the Scientific Hub of the West, the CNIC, was born many years ago. The Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, the Molecular Engineering Research Center, pharmaceuticals factories, the Institute of Pharmacy and Food of the University of Havana are located today starting at the Quibú River to the west and, already entering the thruway, you can see the Pedro Kourí Institute of Tropical Medicine, the Center for Advanced Science Research and the University of Computer Science (UCI). But very nearby, just about seven kilometers to the east, is the José Antonio Echevarría Higher Polytechnic Institute. During these days when we are so...

They had spent several months working hard on their project. They had been discussing the idea since before graduating from University. Each one came from different specialties: industrial engineering, economics, law, agricultural sciences, mechanics, automatics, all friends since before entering the University, all excited about the idea of ​​that project that promised, at least in their papers and minds, to be a good deal. The market showed it every day. A huge unsatisfied demand on the one hand, on the other the most important resources (land and labor), both almost without restrictions, and the very clear signs from the political leadership, “produce, supply the domestic market, export.” Their project fully met those demands and would surely be welcomed and supported. They had discussed the project over and over again, had asked for experiences, and they even tried out some business simulation exercise. Then, with enthusiasm, youth and their project, they tried to carry it out: to create an agricultural cooperative! where they could apply everything they had learned in their careers and in all the research they had done for their project. And the question arose: how can a group of young university students, almost recent graduates, with a project...

It was more than the whole paragraph under the headline of Granma that caught my attention. The headline said, “Toda la atención en cómo lograr que el empresariado cubano proyecte el desarrollo” (Full attention on how to get Cuban entrepreneurs to project development). Under the headline the subheading says: “We need less bureaucracy, more agility and more entrepreneurship. We must definitely strengthen the state enterprise and incorporate the private sector into export projects.” Strengthen the state enterprise.... I confess that I haven’t seen the list of the 28 measures that seek to strengthen the state enterprise. There has been talk about them, but I at least haven’t been able to see them all together, I even looked in the website of the Implementation Commission, Cubacrece, but I didn’t find them, perhaps because my analogical heritage is so strong that it doesn't allow me to achieve all the skill required today to search on the web. I asked other friends and they hadn't managed to find them either. Thanks to the Granma article mentioned this Monday, we know that work is underway on ten other measures on the distribution of state enterprises’ profits. It is always striking that measures that the...

This will not be an article on economics, although it will inexorably be related to it. Cities have become one of the leading actresses of economic development in the world. I heard a colleague, Ricardo Núñez, say a long time ago (2010) that “cities are revitalizing entities of national and even regional economies.” Perhaps today, Singapore with 719 km2 of surface, is the most evident proof of this assertion. That small city state is decisive in an entire region, in one of the most dynamic markets in the world and its extension is less than that of Havana! As Havanans that we all Cubans are, since Havana is the capital of all, we have been partying because our city turned 500 and we have celebrated it as it should, among other things, because none of us will be present when the city’s millennium is celebrated. And if it has been possible, in addition to the passion and dedication of many men and women who devoted hours and hours to that purpose, it has also been possible because of the seed that was planted and that germinated since long before, ever since around 1925 when Don Emilio Roig de Leuchsenring was...

Twice this week I’ve heard this idea in two different contexts, although always referring to the state enterprise. “Doing away with the mechanisms that tie down the autonomy of the state enterprise” was one of them; “Our duty is to do away with the mechanisms that hinder the efficiency of the state enterprise” was the other. They were not said in any particular context, which forces me to think that there is sufficient conviction among decision makers that there are “mechanisms”―institutional and organizational arrangements―that are, at least in part, responsible for state-owned enterprises not meeting expectations. In fact, we could say that there are institutional ―regulations and incentives― and organizational―administrative structures― arrangements which are part of all those obstacles that make our enterprises―not only the state ones, but also those other non-state―not as efficient as they should be. We can also say that many of these obstacles are not new, they date back many decades and even today, because of that fabulous ownership of bureaucracy so similar to that of matter (neither created nor destroyed, only transformed), they remain not only alive, but enjoy good health. Just a few months ago, in the Congress of the Association of Economists of...

While this week almost all Cubans discussed this exciting matter of imagining how we are going to be able to buy (import) what we want, without having to go to any other country or depend on someone who does so (some “cubanicio”: Cuban with Phoenician). And as always with these measures, suddenly several groups are created that move within the space that exists between total detractors and outright defenders. But in recent days something else also happened of tremendous importance but which the press did not give, according to my opinion, the relevance it has, and it was President Díaz-Canel’s meeting where the issue of exports, which is one of those we depend on as a lifesaver, was once again dealt with. That meeting should be broadcast three or four times on television and should be studied in detail by the entire Cuban state business system and also, why not, that other one that we call non-state, but also Cuban and which also produces wealth. https://youtu.be/DACP1ejj5yI From what I could catch from this broadcast, some ideas stayed with me that I will try to reproduce and which President Díaz-Canel highlighted: The plan depends on what we export, and on those...

There was a time when the inhabitants of the township of San Cristóbal de la Habana recognized the times of bonanza or hardship according to the number of sailboats anchored in the bay. That time, even though the main maritime commercial activities in the country have moved to the port of Mariel, isn’t yet a thing of the past. Today the times of bonanza or hardship can be somehow diagnosed by the entrance or not of an oil tanker in the bay of Havana or in the bays of Cienfuegos or Matanzas. Thus, our secular dependence on oil once again brings back that same image to us, this time modernized with ships without sails and with much greater bearing. But the ship in the bay is still the icon of our dependence, whether it is carrying cooking oil, chicken, wheat flour or oil. It would also have to be recognized that all citizens’ access to energy is an element of unquestionable social equity and at the same time it must also be recognized that it was a concern of the country's leadership since the beginning of the 1959 Cuban Revolution to facilitate that the majority of the population could have...

Almost everything, even the worst of the worst, has something positive. It even happens with what used to be our hobby and national sport, our dear and beloved baseball. But I’m not going to talk about baseball, because we would have to have a lot of space to develop theses and test hypotheses. Although our baseball has also suffered the onslaught of the Trump team, which by the way is not at all the dream team that the Americans themselves or at least a great deal of them would have wanted. Right now and in relation to this specific issue I don’t know whether to rejoice or be saddened by the decision of that team to cancel the agreement reached with the MLB. Undoubtedly, those contradictory feelings of mine on this very specific topic have to do with my status as Professor of Economics and having dedicated myself to issues regarding Cuba’s development and economy and having had to explain to my students again and again the evolution of the Cuban economy’s dependence since the times of the colony, when we still depended on the crown of Castile. That dependence imposed by a back-to-front blockade always found resistance among the...

Tourism, I have no doubt, will have to remain one of those great engines that drive the country forward. (1) There are at least three ways to do it: by encouraging an extensive expansion in terms of hotel and non-hotel capacities, or reaching levels of exploitation of existing ones that allow extracting higher income per tourist or by a combination of both. The first variant depends a lot on new investments and new facilities, the second one depends more on the intensive and efficient use of the facilities and on a business concept where prices are more associated with the real quality of the product/service; the third would be to grow in those segments that generate higher income per tourists and strictly invest in the necessary ones. Improving the occupancy rate and tourist income seem to be two of the most important goals of the Cuban tourism sector today. Although the occupancy rate remains low, we continue to grow in hotel capacities and promote the "all-inclusive" modality in sun and beach tourism. A few weeks ago the minister of economy explained that one of the decisive issues is the return on investment funds. If practically most of the new hotel...

No, I am not at all promoting the idea of ​​creating another ministry in Cuba, the Ministry of Development or the development promotion agency. There are already too many, in my opinion. But the word control continues preceding any debate about the national economy. Actually, it’s not a whim. The work of the Comptroller General of the Republic has shown how ineffective many of our so-called control systems are. It is also true that when the cost of the control exceeds the cost of what is controlled then it ceases to make sense, at least from the economic point of view, and is pointing out the need to review these “incentives.” That is why I believe that the words of the day are those that are included in the title of this article. Export, attract foreign investment, replace imports, make the investment process efficient, achieve a good return on investment funds, produce food, are all these words or phrases that we hear every day, from the speeches of the country’s main leaders to any of the national media stories. All are great purposes, all cannot be postponed, if we wish at some time, sooner rather than later, to get out...

Wage increases can only be possible if work productivity can be increased. This idea, repeated over and over again for several years, has been one of the essential arguments for postponing what a decisive part of all Cubans has needed. Maintaining low wages in general, but especially in the budgeted sector, has been one of the reasons for many public employees’ emigration to other sectors. Even though the love for the profession and commitment can be great and weigh tremendously, daily life, and the multiple of needs these Cubans have had to face, has also been a factor of great weight in making that decision to "emigrate" towards better paid sectors or "emigrate" to other places with better salary offers for the degree of qualification of those Cubans. The example that I have closest at hand is that of the high rate of emigration of university professors to some countries of "our south." A recent work by Pedro Monreal published on his blog saves me a part of what I had structured for this article, but there are always issues to deal with this controversial issue of wages, demand and prices versus productivity, efficiency and growth. First a bit of...

It’s true, almost always, that when something new is undertaken it’s necessary to change our old ways of thinking: to forget what was learned and start learning again. When human beings are born, they have all the advantages in the world. Every time everything is new! As people grow up, their system of knowledge, the tacit and the explicit, is shaped according to what they’ve learned and the circumstances in which they’ve learned it; it becomes a complex system of signs, alerts, prejudices, which constantly tend to go backwards while driving forward. There are people who’ve totally unbalanced this complex system: either they stay stuck in what they learned, or they simply forget what they already know and they throw themselves forward almost in a suicidal way. Those entrenched in what they’ve already learned, in their lived experiences, ignore the present and deny the future. At the opposite pole are those who deny all previous learning and pretend that the present is disconnected from the past or the future. Forgetting what was learned is a somewhat voluntary process, since it means consciously renouncing already appropriated knowledge and experiences, in the same way that learning is, whenever it’s really desired. For...

A combination of several factors has made investment, in particular the direct foreign one, return to the news and in the different social networks where time and neurons are dedicated to the problems of the Cuban economy. Undoubtedly, the measures against Cuba that every so often Mr. Trump is responsible for enacting following the agenda of the "dauphin" Marco Rubio, has much to do with this. But it’s also true that Cuba already had its own agenda in relation to these matters. Repeated speeches by Miguel Díaz-Canel and almost all his team in different places, an interview on Cubadebate with the Director for Foreign Investment of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Investment (MINCEX), and a well-publicized speech by the ambassador of the European Union in Cuba in which, in addition to emphasizing that organization’s support for Cuba in its fight against the Helms-Burton Act, suggested a group of ideas quite close to those that many Cuban economists have repeated for years. From the Keynesian perspective it’s assumed that there is a positive relationship between the investment rate and the economy’s growth. The concept of the investment multiplier summed up this relationship quite clearly. Then there has been a lot...

Sitting in that comfortable chair, Pedro watched the sunrise and tasted his so special coffee, totally organic, that could only be obtained in that place, also so special, far from mundane noises, totally exclusive. Suddenly he was startled by the sound of a bell that insistently came out of his pocket, puts his left hand inside it, takes out the cell phone and found that one of his applications was notifying him of a decisive event. He opened the application, there on the map was what generated the notification: Campana, his most beloved cow, his vanguard cow, was in heat. The application also told him that Campana was just 200 meters north of his position, grazing near the edge of his farm. From his cell phone he sent a message to the inseminator and received delivery and reading confirmation. Everything resolved. He brought the cup to his lips, finished his coffee and smiled. Today in almost all countries of the world it is very common for all pets to carry a remote tracking device. It is very probable that in some it is the owners’ legal obligation. It is purchased at any pet store. Taking advantage of a cow being...

I'm not going to talk about the chicken that can’t be found anywhere, nor the famous Brazilian rice so demanded and that has almost disappeared, nor the packages of mincemeat, before a second-choice recourse and now pursued from shopping center to shopping center, nor the possible power cuts. Even less those who opportunistically will now try to obtain capital gains from scarcity. Temporarily regulating the supply of products can be an effective palliative for specific situations and you have to use it, but always with the understanding that it has to be temporary. And yes, in the end I'll have to talk about chicken. Much has already been written about this so-called new special period, from the perspective of harsh news and also from others, which are closer to its causes and possible consequences. I only intend to address some issues related to this new situation of economic crisis in the country. The name of the special period "in times of peace" was assumed by the political leadership in Cuba to describe the economic crisis that became fully evident in the early 1990s. It assumed that name that had already been used to define the situation that Cuba could face...

I reread the comments to an article that appeared in Cubadebate and I remembered that magnificent song by Pablo Milanés, because in a great deal of them it was possible to detect the sadness of a group of people who feel that that tireless traveler that is time is dwindling through their fingers. Then, my friend and colleague Pedro Monreal reminded me of the importance of time in macroeconomic management. As I'm not going to do better it than him, I will reproduce, with his permission, his comments about it: There are at least three macroeconomic management concepts related to the "time" variable that should be taken into account:  The "inside lag": the time elapsed between the economic shock and the economic policy response.  The "outside lag": the time elapsed between the economic policy response and its impact on the economy.  And perhaps the most important of all, "time inconsistency": certain policies that seem "optimal" when announced, stop being the appropriate policies when some time goes by.  In fact, one of the possible causes of "time inconsistency" is that the announcement of future policies may affect the progress of the economy in the present, that is, prior to the application...